Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Is that from clown maps or from actual cooperating 850/surface temps with moisture? The temps surface and aloft look pretty decent for the Monday event John, close but seem to be supportive of snow. TN gets the warm nose for the main one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Stove, How does next week look further west on the Euro? The GFS had a monster storm yesterday on the 12z and 00z run last night but the last two today aren't as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The temps surface and aloft look pretty decent for the Monday event John, close but seem to be supportive of snow. TN gets the warm nose for the main one. I have been interested in early next week for a few days now...there is enough wiggle room for some slightly warmer air to sneak into the eastern valley then the fresh shot of cold air comes in too late...not a good setup for Chatt and what goes for Chatt many times goes for us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Stove, How does next week look further west on the Euro? The GFS had a monster storm yesterday on the 12z and 00z run last night but the last two today aren't as impressive. Monday looks about like TN, Wednesday just a little light snow as the real deal is south of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Monday looks about like TN, Wednesday just a little light snow as the real deal is south of you. South as in Alabama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB06 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKTHU 12Z 06-FEB -4.0 -7.5 1032 73 27 0.00 560 535 THU 18Z 06-FEB -1.8 -6.7 1032 65 72 0.00 558 533 FRI 00Z 07-FEB -4.3 -7.5 1032 74 94 0.00 556 531 FRI 06Z 07-FEB -9.2 -6.0 1031 78 70 0.00 557 532 FRI 12Z 07-FEB -11.3 -6.4 1032 71 40 0.00 558 534 FRI 18Z 07-FEB -2.0 -4.9 1031 50 64 0.00 560 535 SAT 00Z 08-FEB -4.0 -3.8 1028 64 81 0.00 559 538 SAT 06Z 08-FEB -3.5 -2.7 1026 58 67 0.00 558 538 SAT 12Z 08-FEB -3.7 -4.3 1025 72 95 0.01 554 534 SAT 18Z 08-FEB 3.3 -3.8 1024 60 67 0.00 556 536 SUN 00Z 09-FEB 0.6 -1.0 1021 77 22 0.00 556 539 SUN 06Z 09-FEB -2.9 -0.4 1021 86 19 0.00 555 539 SUN 12Z 09-FEB -2.1 -0.6 1020 85 95 0.00 553 537 SUN 18Z 09-FEB 6.6 -1.3 1020 70 25 0.00 558 542 MON 00Z 10-FEB 3.5 -0.3 1019 92 47 0.00 559 544 MON 06Z 10-FEB 1.4 0.7 1021 97 95 0.03 558 542 MON 12Z 10-FEB -0.3 -1.8 1023 96 95 0.27 557 539 MON 18Z 10-FEB 0.5 -3.0 1025 77 75 0.09 557 537 TUE 00Z 11-FEB -4.5 -2.6 1025 87 47 0.00 558 538 TUE 06Z 11-FEB -7.2 -1.6 1027 84 52 0.00 559 538 TUE 12Z 11-FEB -8.8 -1.2 1027 84 52 0.00 559 538 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 0.3 -1.2 1027 60 81 0.00 561 539 WED 00Z 12-FEB -0.8 -0.7 1025 73 99 0.00 561 542 WED 06Z 12-FEB -1.5 -0.1 1022 76 95 0.00 561 543 WED 12Z 12-FEB -0.7 0.8 1017 93 95 0.09 558 544 WED 18Z 12-FEB 1.8 0.2 1014 93 98 0.15 553 541 THU 00Z 13-FEB 0.0 -3.4 1013 96 79 0.16 546 536 THU 06Z 13-FEB -5.4 -6.1 1016 90 76 0.01 542 529 THU 12Z 13-FEB -7.9 -2.9 1017 91 6 0.00 547 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Jax, would you mind posting text for a few other places please? It would be nice to see TRI, TYS, CHA, and MEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Jax, would you mind posting text for a few other places please? It would be nice to see TRI, TYS, CHA, and MEM. sure ,gimme a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 12Z FEB06 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKTHU 12Z 06-FEB -3.9 -12.8 1029 58 22 0.00 562 539 THU 18Z 06-FEB 0.8 -8.1 1028 46 33 0.00 560 538 FRI 00Z 07-FEB -0.7 -7.9 1028 70 87 0.00 557 535 FRI 06Z 07-FEB -2.5 -6.7 1027 68 77 0.01 556 534 FRI 12Z 07-FEB -2.9 -6.3 1029 67 37 0.00 559 536 FRI 18Z 07-FEB 4.3 -4.5 1027 45 31 0.00 560 538 SAT 00Z 08-FEB 2.1 -2.7 1025 57 90 0.00 561 540 SAT 06Z 08-FEB -1.3 -1.2 1025 76 65 0.00 561 541 SAT 12Z 08-FEB -0.8 -2.7 1023 85 99 0.01 557 538 SAT 18Z 08-FEB 5.2 -4.0 1022 62 79 0.04 555 538 SUN 00Z 09-FEB 0.9 -4.2 1021 84 47 0.00 555 538 SUN 06Z 09-FEB -1.9 -2.9 1021 93 13 0.00 555 538 SUN 12Z 09-FEB -1.7 -2.0 1021 91 34 0.00 553 536 SUN 18Z 09-FEB 7.0 -1.5 1018 59 64 0.00 553 538 MON 00Z 10-FEB 3.6 -1.1 1019 83 35 0.00 556 541 MON 06Z 10-FEB 0.8 -1.5 1019 96 68 0.00 557 541 MON 12Z 10-FEB 0.6 -2.5 1021 99 98 0.09 555 539 MON 18Z 10-FEB 1.1 -3.5 1023 84 93 0.17 555 537 TUE 00Z 11-FEB -1.0 -4.6 1023 75 42 0.06 555 537 TUE 06Z 11-FEB -3.4 -3.4 1025 67 23 0.00 557 537 TUE 12Z 11-FEB -4.0 -3.6 1026 67 43 0.00 557 537 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 4.7 -2.9 1024 56 38 0.00 559 540 WED 00Z 12-FEB 0.3 -1.2 1025 64 84 0.00 561 541 WED 06Z 12-FEB -0.5 0.6 1024 72 93 0.00 562 543 WED 12Z 12-FEB -0.7 0.9 1022 69 97 0.03 561 544 WED 18Z 12-FEB -0.9 0.8 1018 90 99 0.36 560 545 THU 00Z 13-FEB -1.1 -0.9 1013 91 100 0.21 553 542 THU 06Z 13-FEB -1.5 -2.5 1011 96 52 0.06 547 538 THU 12Z 13-FEB -1.5 -8.1 1013 90 84 0.04 540 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z FEB06 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKTHU 12Z 06-FEB -3.5 -7.0 1030 56 26 0.00 563 540 THU 18Z 06-FEB 1.3 -4.1 1029 50 48 0.00 561 539 FRI 00Z 07-FEB 0.5 -7.0 1028 65 89 0.00 559 536 FRI 06Z 07-FEB -3.3 -4.3 1028 74 79 0.00 559 537 FRI 12Z 07-FEB -3.6 -4.4 1029 74 39 0.00 560 538 FRI 18Z 07-FEB 4.6 -3.2 1028 50 54 0.00 562 540 SAT 00Z 08-FEB 1.9 -2.4 1025 68 67 0.00 562 542 SAT 06Z 08-FEB -1.8 -0.5 1024 74 55 0.00 561 542 SAT 12Z 08-FEB -0.4 -3.3 1024 80 100 0.01 556 537 SAT 18Z 08-FEB 5.9 -3.0 1023 63 70 0.01 557 539 SUN 00Z 09-FEB 3.3 -2.6 1020 72 25 0.00 557 540 SUN 06Z 09-FEB -2.4 -1.3 1021 90 19 0.00 556 539 SUN 12Z 09-FEB -1.5 -0.8 1021 88 37 0.00 554 537 SUN 18Z 09-FEB 9.4 0.1 1018 57 37 0.00 557 542 MON 00Z 10-FEB 5.3 -0.5 1019 81 36 0.00 559 544 MON 06Z 10-FEB 3.8 0.6 1019 88 76 0.00 559 543 MON 12Z 10-FEB 1.5 -0.6 1020 99 98 0.23 558 541 MON 18Z 10-FEB 1.3 -1.5 1022 96 98 0.31 558 540 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 0.4 -2.3 1023 92 51 0.08 558 540 TUE 06Z 11-FEB -2.3 -0.9 1024 86 41 0.00 559 540 TUE 12Z 11-FEB -3.7 -1.3 1025 81 36 0.00 560 540 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 3.6 -0.6 1025 70 57 0.00 562 542 WED 00Z 12-FEB 2.1 0.4 1024 73 88 0.00 562 543 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.3 1.8 1022 76 92 0.00 563 546 WED 12Z 12-FEB 1.3 1.8 1018 97 98 0.16 561 547 WED 18Z 12-FEB 2.9 2.1 1015 91 100 0.55 559 547 THU 00Z 13-FEB 1.2 -0.4 1012 99 89 0.15 551 542 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.9 -3.7 1011 99 56 0.06 544 535 THU 12Z 13-FEB -3.8 -6.3 1016 89 59 0.02 543 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 12Z FEB06 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKTHU 12Z 06-FEB -2.8 -3.1 1030 59 24 0.00 565 542 THU 18Z 06-FEB 2.2 -1.4 1028 47 60 0.00 563 541 FRI 00Z 07-FEB 0.7 -4.1 1028 71 90 0.01 560 538 FRI 06Z 07-FEB -2.2 -2.4 1028 71 68 0.00 562 540 FRI 12Z 07-FEB -2.6 -2.7 1028 70 54 0.00 563 540 FRI 18Z 07-FEB 5.5 -2.1 1028 45 71 0.00 564 542 SAT 00Z 08-FEB 3.0 -1.5 1024 62 40 0.00 564 544 SAT 06Z 08-FEB -0.5 -0.3 1024 75 51 0.00 563 543 SAT 12Z 08-FEB -0.1 -2.7 1024 76 94 0.00 557 538 SAT 18Z 08-FEB 8.3 -1.8 1022 50 62 0.00 559 541 SUN 00Z 09-FEB 3.9 -1.0 1020 76 22 0.00 558 542 SUN 06Z 09-FEB 0.6 0.1 1021 86 15 0.00 558 541 SUN 12Z 09-FEB -0.6 0.5 1020 91 54 0.00 556 540 SUN 18Z 09-FEB 10.8 0.2 1019 55 24 0.00 561 545 MON 00Z 10-FEB 8.1 1.3 1018 76 31 0.00 563 547 MON 06Z 10-FEB 5.3 2.9 1018 90 93 0.01 562 547 MON 12Z 10-FEB 4.2 1.9 1019 98 100 0.21 560 545 MON 18Z 10-FEB 1.9 0.7 1021 98 99 0.35 561 544 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 1.7 0.2 1022 92 56 0.04 561 543 TUE 06Z 11-FEB -0.7 1.3 1023 81 44 0.00 562 543 TUE 12Z 11-FEB -1.1 1.0 1024 72 45 0.00 562 543 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 4.6 -0.2 1024 61 65 0.00 564 544 WED 00Z 12-FEB 4.0 0.2 1023 71 86 0.00 564 546 WED 06Z 12-FEB 2.2 1.7 1021 84 82 0.06 564 547 WED 12Z 12-FEB 2.3 2.9 1018 99 100 0.37 562 548 WED 18Z 12-FEB 3.5 0.7 1015 95 89 0.52 559 547 THU 00Z 13-FEB 1.3 -0.5 1012 98 67 0.08 551 542 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.4 -4.3 1014 97 43 0.02 544 533 THU 12Z 13-FEB -2.4 -3.9 1017 76 31 0.00 546 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z FEB06 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKTHU 12Z 06-FEB -5.8 -5.9 1034 79 58 0.00 560 534 THU 18Z 06-FEB -4.3 -5.3 1034 71 87 0.00 559 533 FRI 00Z 07-FEB -7.8 -6.6 1033 77 86 0.00 557 532 FRI 06Z 07-FEB -12.7 -5.4 1032 80 60 0.00 560 536 FRI 12Z 07-FEB -13.0 -6.1 1032 81 73 0.00 560 536 FRI 18Z 07-FEB -2.6 -3.5 1031 59 70 0.00 562 538 SAT 00Z 08-FEB -2.2 -2.6 1027 73 63 0.00 560 539 SAT 06Z 08-FEB -3.0 -3.7 1026 78 97 0.00 557 536 SAT 12Z 08-FEB -3.6 -2.7 1025 83 78 0.00 556 537 SAT 18Z 08-FEB 2.5 -1.9 1025 66 31 0.00 559 540 SUN 00Z 09-FEB 3.2 3.0 1021 67 11 0.00 558 542 SUN 06Z 09-FEB -2.0 2.3 1020 87 64 0.00 558 542 SUN 12Z 09-FEB 1.7 0.5 1018 87 29 0.00 559 545 SUN 18Z 09-FEB 8.2 5.0 1019 79 30 0.00 565 549 MON 00Z 10-FEB 6.0 5.5 1018 95 58 0.01 563 549 MON 06Z 10-FEB 3.3 3.4 1020 95 83 0.07 562 546 MON 12Z 10-FEB 0.2 0.6 1022 93 97 0.10 561 544 MON 18Z 10-FEB -0.1 -1.3 1026 73 77 0.03 561 541 TUE 00Z 11-FEB -1.5 -0.2 1025 68 45 0.00 563 543 TUE 06Z 11-FEB -3.7 0.4 1026 63 52 0.00 562 542 TUE 12Z 11-FEB -6.2 0.0 1027 66 75 0.00 562 541 TUE 18Z 11-FEB -2.2 -0.7 1027 58 93 0.00 563 542 WED 00Z 12-FEB -2.3 0.5 1023 60 79 0.00 562 544 WED 06Z 12-FEB -1.5 -1.1 1021 67 92 0.00 561 545 WED 12Z 12-FEB -1.8 -0.9 1017 76 90 0.01 555 542 WED 18Z 12-FEB -0.7 -2.9 1018 77 94 0.01 551 536 THU 00Z 13-FEB -1.0 -5.1 1017 77 58 0.00 545 532 THU 06Z 13-FEB -4.1 -2.5 1017 86 16 0.00 548 534 THU 12Z 13-FEB -4.1 1.5 1017 84 14 0.00 556 543 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 As soon my my Plots load up i'll double check the 2m's and 850's,sometimes these numbers are not right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Like Mr Bob said it definite brings up a warm nose for the 12th,numbers look ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 So does the 4" statewide event the Euro showed for the 10th look legit or is the model on crack again? Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Don't forget a potential northwest shift in the models later on. It's been happening a lot lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Radar looks interesting in Alabama right now. Might be mostly virga though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 MRX says they are going with the Euro for now on next week's storm but have no mention of the Monday deal. Say dry and partly sunny that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yeah, I agree Stove. That's partly the reason I asked the question above. I saw their discussion and it didn't make sense given the 12z run of the Euro. What are we missing? Or is MRX out to lunch on the Monday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I can't speak to their discussion, but that finger of precip that streaks out isn't just on the Euro. Seems to be something there. Almost like a quick shot at overrunning ahead of the main low. Need to watch it in future runs. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Based on how this season has gone, a little "surprise" feature like that could very well make the winter for many snow starved folks, since the big ones seem to go wide right, wide left, or wide up. I'm sure many people would gladly take a 2 to 4 incher. Too many variables to sort out now though, I'm sure MRX is waiting for consistency like we all are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Based on how this season has gone, a little "surprise" feature like that could very well make the winter for many snow starved folks, since the big ones seem to go wide right, wide left, or wide up. I'm sure many people would gladly take a 2 to 4 incher. Too many variables to sort out now though, I'm sure MRX is waiting for consistency like we all are. Us people around Nashville forgot what 2" looks like..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Jax, thanks for the text. Models confuse me, but I can mostly read those, at least I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 18z GFS has the first event. It comes a bit later than Euro, hits on Tuesday and the clown is good for 2 to 5 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thought we'd get more qpf's,only .20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Why does it not develop sooner ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It is a bit unusual but not unprecedented. I will dig through the archives tonight and look up some instances. Looks like round of overrunning and then then main low. Honestly, I dont know right now and no one should say they do at this point, all the globals agree on a winter weather threat, but the nature and timing still ranges from Monday to Thursday! And from two waves to 1 big storm and from mostly ice to mostly snow, to both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.