tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's a TN crusher. Still snowing in east TN at hour 174 and much of the state is blanketed in snow and ice. ALL before truncation. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 9 inches in Nashville. Lawdy I'd love to see y'all get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 A foot at TRI lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Make no mistake Stove, the modeled track, negative tilt, high pressure locked, strengthening low after 24 hours of overrunning........is textbook for the TN valley. This is the best run I have seen since the days of eastern! Just wish it was real....lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 exactly 1.00 qpf for BNA..all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 All pre-truncation snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Wow that is nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 850's still concern me,no wiggle room so it can get real ugly of an ice storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 We r headed right direction though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Here's the thing, I believe this threat is generally believable. The high pressure appears to be real (only 18z had it fairly unimpressive) and the vort appears robust. There is some slight west coast ridging which really helps us and the AO is projected to take a dive with modest blocking in a pretty good spot too. Sign me up, I am ready to push all my chips in. This is the best chance all year......for the last three years actually. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Here's the thing, I believe this threat is generally believable. The high pressure appears to be real (only 18z had it fairly unimpressive) and the vort appears robust. There is some slight west coast ridging which really helps us and the AO is projected to take a dive with modest blocking in a pretty good spot too. Sign me up, I am ready to push all my chips in. This is the best chance all year......for the last three years actually. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I like the way you talk mmmm hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 If the euro agrees with this run and or the6z is singing same tune I will be guardedly optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's scary, but the GFS has had the same general look the last couple of days. It's scary bc Robert (WxSouth) says the models won't do well beyond three days. That's the biggest bummer of it all, even though I am genuinely optimistic. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'd be all over a storm like this at 120-140 a few years ago. This year I'd have my doubts 48-84 hours out. But it'd sure be darn nice to actually get a February monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 GGEM has a storm starting in the same time frame but the high is back towards the west a lot more which allows rain here. Then another wave follows in it's heels with a much smaller precip shield that gives frozen south of here and then in the Carolina's. The good news is, the GGEM is usually awful. The Euro has had the storm for a few days, but warmer. And one of the WFO earlier today mentioned that the Euro was very accurate with large precip makers at day 7, but not with any specifics regarding precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 0z Euro has a little bit of light snow in northwest TN on Saturday morning. It runs the Wednesday storm over the apps keeping most of the region too warm for snow. But, in that scenario north MS, north AL, the western border counties of TN, and TRI manage 2-4 inches according to snow maps. A dusting to 1 inch elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 6z GFS is south of 0z. TN gets 1 to 2 inches Wednesday with Memphis area and TRI pushing 2 to 4 but the bulk of the precip is well south and temps are a bit more iffy compared to previous run. Plenty of time for that to improve or get worse heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The 0z Euro ensembles are looking impressive across TN. Out of the 51 members: Bristol - Mean 3.9 inches, 38 members show greater than 2 inch snowfall Knoxville - Mean 2.4 inches, 23 over 2 Chattanooga - Mean 1.5 inches, 13 over 2 Crossville - Mean 3.4 inches, 31 over 2 Nashville - Mean 2.6 inches, 24 over 2 Jackson - Mean 2.4 inches, 24 over 2 Paris - Mean 2.7 inches, 26 over 2 Memphis - Mean 2.5 inches, 22 over 2 Every city I checked had several members showing big dog snows too. Edit: Also, looking at the EPS snow probability maps for hour 180, the entire state has: 60% chance of snowfall greater than 1 inch 30% chance of snowfall greater than 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS is still south of here, good thumping for Southern Arkansas, not much over us and then Western North Carolina gets a good snow, leaving the Tennessee Valley in light snows to nothing much but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thanks for the Euro information Stove. The 12z GFS loses the ridging behind on the west coast, but still delivers a pretty good track for winter lovers. The high pressure TRIES ITS BEST to hang on, but simply cant. Northern stream influence and our old friend (an approaching GL Low) looks to ruin things west of the apps. It looked a little quirky to me as the vort kind of stays put over the southern plains for quite some time. If that would have kept rolling east under the high, we'd be set for a nice snow. Lots left to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thanks for the Euro information Stove. The 12z GFS loses the ridging behind on the west coast, but still delivers a pretty good track for winter lovers. The high pressure TRIES ITS BEST to hang on, but simply cant. Northern stream influence and our old friend (an approaching GL Low) looks to ruin things west of the apps. It looked a little quirky to me as the vort kind of stays put over the southern plains for quite some time. If that would have kept rolling east under the high, we'd be set for a nice snow. Lots left to work out. I think you have to bet on the faster solution right now given the fast flowoff the pacific and little in the way of blocking. If this sucker can get under and around the east side of the high, we get the gfs solution. If it slows down, we get slop to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Henry M. said this morning dont buy into the model mayhem and use the thumb rule,the fist storm comes in San Fran and will get kicked out by Norfolk,this would benefit us if this happens.He said the models will pick it up tomorrow so the 0z is something to watch,just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Another thumb rule.... Henry M (accuwx) is a terrible meteorologist Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Another thumb rule.... Henry M (accuwx) is a terrible meteorologist Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk HahahhahahhHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The gulf of Alaska vortex and west coast ridge don't teleconnect, but the blocking in the Atlantic looks nice. Terrible ridge axis. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The 12z Euro lays down 4 inches of snow statewide Monday lol. The temps look to support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 we need that HP to be further west,it was better this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's all about the southern vort, if it can roll out fast enough it can take advantage of the cold from the HP. The 0z gfs and insane dgex showed that happening. The later runs of the gfs slowed the southern vort down and let the northern stream knock the hp out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The main event mid-week is a massive hit for the Carolinas, north Georgia, and far northeast TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 Is that from clown maps or from actual cooperating 850/surface temps with moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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