jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 12z Euro is a miss on the weekend storm. It forms in Florida and moves up and off the east coast. Yeah, and the next one is gonna be to warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I'd be interested to hear a formal knowledgeable description of what the Euro is doing with the mid week storm. It looks wild both at 500mb and at the surface. The storm forms similar to the past run, then a piece of it breaks off and gets fired out of a cannon toward the NE. Meanwhile the southern piece just casually moves across the south, turning the corner Miller A style. We are too warm in TN to get anything substantial from it as modeled on that run. But I'm sure there is some variation of that that would be a big snow maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 here's a formal knowledgable description.... its beyond 3 days so its probably wildly wrong. Arkansas gets a lot more love on this run. As does Kentucky. I honestly don't know what it takes to get a big snow here anymore. Even in the good years at the beginning of the decade, BNA never picked up more than 4 inches in one storm (jan 30, 2010) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 here's a formal knowledgable description.... its beyond 3 days so its probably wildly wrong. Arkansas gets a lot more love on this run. As does Kentucky. I honestly don't know what it takes to get a big snow here anymore. Even in the good years at the beginning of the decade, BNA never picked up more than 4 inches in one storm (jan 30, 2010) Oh it's probably wrong, I was just trying to learn. Would that be a hybrid Miller B type thing? A second low does form and go off the coast but that is way north east of where the southern storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Just looking at 500, it looks as if there is a low that races in on the northern stream in the upper plains that destroys any potential cold air feed from an already decaying cold airmass. The negative tilt in the southeast is a thing of beauty, just no cold air to draw into it, or so it appears................It's a great southern track for sure. Something to keep an eye on. I could see this morphing into an event that has light overrunning for 24-36 hours ahead of the main impulse that brings WAA with it turning us to rain, before turning back to snow for someone, but time will sort it out like it always does. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 No weekend storm on 18z GFS. Mid-week storm is wetter than 12z, but also warmer. West TN gets more ice it looks like, cold rain elsewhere. It's not far from an awesome event though. Edit: Maybe some snow in the far NW tip of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Siding with the Euro so this isn't looking good .14 snow .51 ice on my text,abut the same as the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How about Nashville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 mine is Nashville,Brentwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Oh I am close to Portland we don't want ice a half inch is way too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Oh I am close to Portland we don't want ice a half inch is way too much We need that HP to dig more,i can deal with less snw,don't want no major ice storm and to top it off that would be wet snow which is just as bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The whole key is gonna be how this first system evolves,i don't hold any stock in any model at this range anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I am with you on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Like the moisture flow for middle tn next week. If we can get a 1035 HP could be sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I keep hearing a few people talking about a better chance of snow mid-week next week, But weve been talking about a snow storm about 7-ish days away for a while now and it just peters out. Would really like to get something out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The actual pattern that produces GOM lows is here...they are all cutters. -PNA + (+NAO) = rain...other words may he substituted her. High energy pattern. Anything is possible for about two weeks and then...well, the red isotherm line approacheth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The NAO is taking a good dip right before Valentine's Day. I am pushing my chips in for that week. After that, turning my attention to spring and severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Winter has me until mid-March. If she doesn't produce by then, we'll....that's her problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The high looks stronger on the 0z GFS. (Similar to prior runs and not 18z) This is a good sign for Tuesday of next week Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The high looks stronger on the 0z GFS. (Similar to prior runs and not 18z) This is a good sign for Tuesday of next week Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk We need this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 1038 High in the Midwest. Fairly strong vort rolling east under the high, with slight ridging building that should help push it further south. This might be a good run. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Winter storm incoming on the 0z GFS as early as hour 126! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 High looks "anchored" in a prime spot at hour 132 with much of the state covered in light snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 0z is easily the best look we have had this winter IMO Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Guys the 0z is a thing of beauty. Seems like its been YEARS since I have seen a high anchor down (no, not a Vandy reference) in a prime spot..... Iowa..... and not move for almost 24 hours...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's a slow moving snow, then ice storm it appears. (36+ hour duration) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 biggest winter storm in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Low STILL in south GA, moderate snow and ice in central and east TN at 165. Oh yeah, the low is strengthening and the negative tilt is a thing of beauty....48 hour storm as modeled. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Very nice to see this run. The clown is nuts but probably a lot of ice. East TN suffers the warm nose a bit, this is impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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