12z models 12/19

[Kevin Druff]

-4C RIC NHK ACY<br />

This. So long as there's precip and sub-zero temps on Xmas eve/morning I'm stoked.

[Ian]

996 low east of s/nj area at 162... precip getting into sne a bit. .5" stripe headed from se va through eastern md and de.

[Guest someguy]

168 hrs 990 low due east of SBY or cape may ... already at 71 west Long.... so its still booking east

[yoda]

Just as I say that, the Euro has a 996mb low tucked in off the NJ coast at 156-162. Go figure...

hr 162 sub 996 low 75-100 miles east of lewes del lgt to mod precip dc to nyc lgt precip over the whole area

[Southland Wx]

Not a massive storm...QPF pattern (grain of salt) looks similar to the GFS (though lighter)...track not that far off either (helps that the ridge axis is somewhat similar out west I think). Decent storm though.

[Guest someguy]

correct but at 168 hours it opens up

this looks like a very nice 500 mb set up for at least a SECS

nearly closed off 5H low over Ohio

[Ian]

looks a good deal better further north... .25"+ thru central ct all of ri, se mass at 168

[Atlas]

correct but at 168 hours it opens up

Still though DT it is another step in a good direction. Better than the euro showing an out to sea solution

[CooL]

This looks more like the GFS than any other model, although not as extreme ....hmm 992mb on the Benchmark

[Ian]

thru 180 .5+ thru most of s/central nj to nyc, all li se ct, ri, se mass... .25+ all ct except maybe nw tip, all of mass except nw.. line continues toward me/nh coastal border.

[HM]

There are pretty significant differences between the ECMWF and GFS and how they handle the wave that hits the West Coast at ~ Christmas. The GFS is slower to bring this feature in and takes it north. The ECMWF is faster and then drops it into the Rockies/Southwest in its typical biased fashion. If this thing speeds up anymore, this storm is for the fish...

[2001kx]

Perfect track to bury everybody. Slight shift west and you could have mixing issues on the coast. As modeled though crushing snow storm.

3-6" - 4-8" is not buried!

but i would gladly take it

[Guest someguy]

This looks more like the GFS than any other model, although not as extreme ....hmm 992mb on the Benchmark

well it is still se of the GFS by quite a way

BUT if we can get the 500 Low close off ...

then we got ourselves a doggie

[TUweathermanDD]

3-6" - 4-8" is not buried!

but i would gladly take it

He said perfect track not perfect QPF, but we'd all take that as well. However, with that track, we would get a good storm.

[Guest someguy]

DT, Do you see a scenario where Hampton Roads doesn't end up with a rain storm out of this?

Much of this would be rain... it could end as snow IF and ONLY IF the low stays as far south as the euro and 12z gfs ensmeble show

if the 12z GFS is right you will see rain then dry slot then nothing else

for RIC if the 12z GFS is correct snow to rain then dry slot Maybe a period of snow on the back end

[2001kx]

He said perfect track not perfect QPF, but we'd all take that as well. However, with that track, we would get a good storm.

fair enough!

[SeVa]

Much of this would be rain... it could end as snow IF and ONLY IF the low stays as far south as the euro and 12z gfs ensmeble show

if the 12z GFS is right you will see rain then dry slot then nothing else

for RIC if the 12z GFS is correct snow to rain then dry slot Maybe a period of snow on the back end

Damn, that sucks. Nothing like some nice rain on Christmas.

[VAB1]

Is that all precip on the Euro with the 700mb RH on day 7? If so, that would be the granddaddy of wraparounds.

[CooL]

Is that all precip on the Euro with the 700mb RH on day 7? If so, that would be the granddaddy of wraparounds.

No that is the 700mb RH fields. Its basically showing the relative humidity and where the atmosphere COULD support precip. But that is not actually precipitation

[Analog96]

No that is the 700mb RH fields. Its basically showing the relative humidity and where the atmosphere COULD support precip. But that is not actually precipitation

You would need to look at sfc rh, or at least 925 mb.

[CooL]

Euro vs. GFS comparison...Notice the 500mb low placement/ridge axis out west/and the trough similarities over the eastern U.S..Looks pretty good...for now

[winter_warlock]

the afternoon update from hpc...

[PhineasC]

Those HPC maps are pure sex.

[Bluescat1]

Tony aka Rainshadow summed it up pretty good with todays AFD from Mt Holly.

IT`S NOT EVERY YEAR WE EVEN HAVE A

THREAT OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS. STAY TUNED.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

[jm1220]

Euro vs. GFS comparison...Notice the 500mb low placement/ridge axis out west/and the trough similarities over the eastern U.S..Looks pretty good...for now

The main difference seems to stem from the steepness of the ridge out West (the 570 line stretches up to Montana on the GFS and only to southern WY on the Euro) and its placement. The ridge axis on the GFS is basically on a line from PHX-SLC and north, and on the Euro it's about from Devner to Williston, ND. That forces our low to develop further east and be somewhat weaker. But these are differences that can be easily worked out in the time we have left.

[CooL]

The main difference seems to stem from the steepness of the ridge out West (the 570 line stretches up to Montana on the GFS and only to southern WY on the Euro) and its placement. The ridge axis on the GFS is basically on a line from PHX-SLC and north, and on the Euro it's about from Devner to Williston, ND. That forces our low to develop further east and be somewhat weaker. But these are differences that can be easily worked out in the time we have left.

Strongly agree. But hey, its a small shift, and the fact that the euro is flirting with the GFS is what i like the most right now

[A-L-E-X]

Tony aka Rainshadow summed it up pretty good with todays AFD from Mt Holly.

IT`S NOT EVERY YEAR WE EVEN HAVE A

THREAT OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS. STAY TUNED.

http://forecast.weat...0&highlight=off

Yes-- besides Xmas day 2002, which was a total surprise, the most I can recall receiving on xmas was a coating from one of those dumb arctic frontal passages that clear out as quickly as they come in.

[A-L-E-X]

The main difference seems to stem from the steepness of the ridge out West (the 570 line stretches up to Montana on the GFS and only to southern WY on the Euro) and its placement. The ridge axis on the GFS is basically on a line from PHX-SLC and north, and on the Euro it's about from Devner to Williston, ND. That forces our low to develop further east and be somewhat weaker. But these are differences that can be easily worked out in the time we have left.

JM, the main thing to take from this is this isnt a scenario where you need coastal development to see a few inches of snow-- we should get someting nice regardless of where the coastal develops

[stormtracker]

Any QPF numbers for select cities from the Euro?

[Voyager]

Any QPF numbers for select cities from the Euro?

Tombo put these up which is, I think, from the Euro.

qpf

nyc .6

phl .5

mdt .1-.25

ttn .5

ac 1

abe .15

balt .4-.5

dc .4-.5