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12z models 12/19


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Guest someguy

East of the OP, yes. "WAY" east, no.

dont agree at all with you nhere ...

the gfs ensembles as shown ...are what I would call "way east " of the operational run

but this may be an issue of judgment

at 156 the 12z op-GFS has a BOMB just N of the Benchmark at 79 at 41n and 71 w

the 12z gfs ens mean is 997 and east of 70 ...at 38N and 69.5 west

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I don't like the 850 low position it would argue for mixing issues before turning back to snow.

But isnt that normally the case when a storm bombs like the GFS is showing? almost always there is a period of mixing or sleet for the coastal plain in these scenarios. Not to mention the odds of this verifying as the GFS op is showing is probably less than 50%. the most likely scenario based on the ensembles and the Euro is for a somewhat weaker storm taking a more southerly track, which would provide a moderate snowfall for much of the MA.

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Strongly agree with DT's ideas at the moment. The threat for snow..possibly of moderate significance...is pretty high in the M/A along I-95 on Christmas. The potential for a major surface low development thereafter is not well modeled by any guidance right now other than the OP GFS. That's about all we know at the moment...+150hr forecast.

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Strongly agree with DT's ideas at the moment. The threat for snow..possibly of moderate significance...is pretty high in the M/A along I-95 on Christmas. The potential for a major surface low development thereafter is not well modeled by any guidance right now other than the OP GFS. That's about all we know at the moment...+150hr forecast.

very fair assessment at this stage of the game.. Lets see what the Euro says shortly.

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Strongly agree with DT's ideas at the moment. The threat for snow..possibly of moderate significance...is pretty high in the M/A along I-95 on Christmas. The potential for a major surface low development thereafter is not well modeled by any guidance right now other than the OP GFS. That's about all we know at the moment...+150hr forecast.

Good post...there's not much to add. The lesson learned with today's non-event is that if you are relying on PV dynamics, good luck to you. This Christmas storm is not as free to do what it wants as it may appear to be...understandably so with the giant ridge out west and the -NAO. But, the PV can simply undercut the ridge AGAIN and force confluence into New England cutting this thing south.

Then we end up with a low-end Mid Atlantic snow threat that would be forgettable if it wasn't on Christmas.

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I think most sane people know the GFS depiction probably won't happen. I think a reasonable amount of snow will fall for most of us...but no KU event. I'd take 3 to 6 inches of snow on Christmas and be happy.

Most truly sane people wouldn't get that worked up about a d5+ threat either way. Lots still to be worked out... even saying snow will fall is a coin flip at best.

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Re the 12z EURO per tombo

hr 114 1008 low in north central oklahoma...lgt to mod precip from canada border to tx...one thing to note 500 mb low are further south, one up by hudson bay just off new foundland whuch is a new one that popped up compared to 0z

hr 126 sub 1012 low over memphis lgt to mod precip from southern mn to la...mod precip eastern mo and western ill

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Guest someguy

144 hr euro... very close to 0z run... Low with 2 centers ...one over southern or se WVA the other over central NC RIC 0 at 850 mb

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Guest someguy

156 hrs 1000 MB developing niocely.... 75 -100 miles east of ORF MORE precip on this run

0 isotherm at 850 ORF SBY

-4C RIC NHK ACY

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