SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12Z Ensemble mean is a little bit more robust, but not like the OP. Right where we want it at this stage in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 and way east of the OP East of the OP, yes. "WAY" east, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GOOD POST LETS GO EAGLES (and euro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Now the ECMWF is starting to picking it up, I feel that this may be the one. Extreme consistency like 1978 and 1996. In 96, the GFS (whatever it was called, MRF?) didn't catch on to the northern extent of the blizzard until 36 hours before it started in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 East of the OP, yes. "WAY" east, no. dont agree at all with you nhere ... the gfs ensembles as shown ...are what I would call "way east " of the operational run but this may be an issue of judgment at 156 the 12z op-GFS has a BOMB just N of the Benchmark at 79 at 41n and 71 w the 12z gfs ens mean is 997 and east of 70 ...at 38N and 69.5 west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 http://204.2.104.196...-SNOW_144HR.gif new snowmap for GFS That doesn't really help much for the easties considering it's still snowing like 30 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I don't like the 850 low position it would argue for mixing issues before turning back to snow. But isnt that normally the case when a storm bombs like the GFS is showing? almost always there is a period of mixing or sleet for the coastal plain in these scenarios. Not to mention the odds of this verifying as the GFS op is showing is probably less than 50%. the most likely scenario based on the ensembles and the Euro is for a somewhat weaker storm taking a more southerly track, which would provide a moderate snowfall for much of the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Strongly agree with DT's ideas at the moment. The threat for snow..possibly of moderate significance...is pretty high in the M/A along I-95 on Christmas. The potential for a major surface low development thereafter is not well modeled by any guidance right now other than the OP GFS. That's about all we know at the moment...+150hr forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Strongly agree with DT's ideas at the moment. The threat for snow..possibly of moderate significance...is pretty high in the M/A along I-95 on Christmas. The potential for a major surface low development thereafter is not well modeled by any guidance right now other than the OP GFS. That's about all we know at the moment...+150hr forecast. very fair assessment at this stage of the game.. Lets see what the Euro says shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Strongly agree with DT's ideas at the moment. The threat for snow..possibly of moderate significance...is pretty high in the M/A along I-95 on Christmas. The potential for a major surface low development thereafter is not well modeled by any guidance right now other than the OP GFS. That's about all we know at the moment...+150hr forecast. Good post...there's not much to add. The lesson learned with today's non-event is that if you are relying on PV dynamics, good luck to you. This Christmas storm is not as free to do what it wants as it may appear to be...understandably so with the giant ridge out west and the -NAO. But, the PV can simply undercut the ridge AGAIN and force confluence into New England cutting this thing south. Then we end up with a low-end Mid Atlantic snow threat that would be forgettable if it wasn't on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think most sane people know the GFS depiction probably won't happen. I think a reasonable amount of snow will fall for most of us...but no KU event. I'd take 3 to 6 inches of snow on Christmas and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think most sane people know the GFS depiction probably won't happen. I think a reasonable amount of snow will fall for most of us...but no KU event. I'd take 3 to 6 inches of snow on Christmas and be happy. Most truly sane people wouldn't get that worked up about a d5+ threat either way. Lots still to be worked out... even saying snow will fall is a coin flip at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 East of the OP, yes. "WAY" east, no. if you say so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Re the 12z EURO per tombo hr 114 1008 low in north central oklahoma...lgt to mod precip from canada border to tx...one thing to note 500 mb low are further south, one up by hudson bay just off new foundland whuch is a new one that popped up compared to 0z hr 126 sub 1012 low over memphis lgt to mod precip from southern mn to la...mod precip eastern mo and western ill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Most truly sane people wouldn't get that worked up about a d5+ threat either way. Lots still to be worked out... even saying snow will fall is a coin flip at best. Not sure I understand? There's a difference between worked up and discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Good interaction with the northern stream at 132 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Re the 12z EURO per tombo at 132 surface low looks perhaps a smidge south but maybe mostly faster... central TN v western TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Most truly sane people wouldn't get that worked up about a d5+ threat either way. Lots still to be worked out... even saying snow will fall is a coin flip at best. It will be a long week with you trolling the snow threat because you will not be in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It will be a long week with you trolling the snow threat because you will not be in the area. contribute or stfu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 144 sub 108 low over ne nc...lgt precip into most of pa except ne pa on south lgt to mod precip over wva, western va, etn,eky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 decent bit colder this run trough is digging more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 156 low on the nc coast south of 0z, looks pretty good -- most of va save nova .25+ at this pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hr 150 sub 1004 low over eastern nc, lgt precip over nyc to abe to wellsboro on south....lgt to mod precip over dc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 144 hr euro... very close to 0z run... Low with 2 centers ...one over southern or se WVA the other over central NC RIC 0 at 850 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ~1000 low off delmarva at 156.. def looks better than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 phasing going on at 150, trof looks to go neg tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 156 hrs 1000 MB developing niocely.... 75 -100 miles east of ORF MORE precip on this run 0 isotherm at 850 ORF SBY -4C RIC NHK ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 TOMBO ,... I dont see a negative tilt at all... and no closed 50 Low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just as I say that, the Euro has a 996mb low tucked in off the NJ coast at 156-162. Go figure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 this looks like a very nice 500 mb set up for at least a SECS nearly closed off 5H low over Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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