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12z models 12/19


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Guest someguy

What's this now, 7, 8, 9 straight runs with an east coast bomb on the GFS? That's amazing. It also has support from the Euro and UKMET so this is definitely our best threat of the winter so far.

um be careful here...

the euro euro essembles and Ukmet are NOTHING like the last several runs of the GFS operational runs

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um be careful here...

the euro euro essembles and Ukmet are NOTHING like the last several runs of the GFS operational runs

I didn't mean "support" as in a literal east coast bomb - I meant it as in a nice accumulating snow for the mid-atlantic on Christmas. The UKMET, and the Euro and its ensembles all show that.

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Guest someguy

Anyone a bit concerned that it ends up further north in time? We need the cyclops to be far enough south to guide the storm ENE, then cause it to reform near the outer banks/capes.

If the cyclops is too far north/weaker, the storm will be in the OV- whats to keep it south? Solutions like this GFS make me leary of any northern stream phasing. Twice bitten, once shy I guess.

yes the pinned thread and yesterday Models threads... I mentioed this is a real concern

the only reason I think this further south track MIGHT happen is that the the euro and euro ensemble are also way south

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Guest someguy

I didn't mean "support" as in a literal east coast bomb - I meant it as in a nice accumulating snow for the mid-atlantic on Christmas. The UKMET, and the Euro and its ensembles all show that.

OK fair enough

as long as folks know the last several runs of the operational GFS has NO support at all from any other Model

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Guest someguy

Now the ECMWF is starting to picking it up, I feel that this may be the one. Extreme consistency like 1978 and 1996.

??????? 1978 and 1966..

you have to be kidding

can you explain to me how the 0z euro . 0z euro ensemble are any thing close to the 12z and 0z GFS runs ...

the last 5 runs of the run have had this Low but nothing like the gfs super bomb

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???????

can you explain to me how the 0z euro . 0z euro ensemble are any thing close to the 12z and 0z GFS runs ...

the last 5 runs of the run have had this Low but nothing like the gfs super bomb

Also included in this are the 00z UKmet and 00z GGEM which do not have a GFS super bomb

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Any bets on when the GFS loses this amazing solution only to bring it back 48 hours before the storm? :arrowhead:

On Friday morning when I settle in by the fire with a fresh cup of coffee while listening to Bing Crosby's "White Christmas" and scrolling down the 6z model analysis on here.

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The GFS-based NAO prediction shows a brief return to neutral during the height of the storm.

Could this be an Archambeault-special?

If it bombs it will fill the space left by the previous Western Atlantic LP, thus having at least some ridging over Greenland/Iceland. So cold air will once again flow down in the eastern half of the US. As long as the evolution in the Atlantic remains constant with theWest Coast Trof, there's nothing really to shift the long wave pattern.

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This reminds me of the euro which had the super bomb last week several days out and then lost it a few runs later. If the 12z euro jumps on board today this board will be exploding....:snowman:

Difference is, it had a superbomb for one or two runs before loosing it (and then had that hiccup of a run showing it one last time). Whereas the GFS has had this for 7-8 runs already. Consistency like that is rare.

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Guest someguy

Difference is, it had a superbomb for one or two runs before loosing it (and then had that hiccup of a run showing it one last time). Whereas the GFS has had this for 7-8 runs already. Consistency like that is rare.

Not impressed at all by the GFS consistency. None .

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Guest someguy

at 500 MB the 12z CMC is showing that is a Low that is going to scott off the coast and NOT Bomb out close enough to bring back the blizzard of 78

The ridge axis over the Rockies ...on all then Model... is in My opinion too far east for the BOMB to occur close enough to the coast as the

last several runs of the operational GFS insists on showing

It's been trending north its last few runs, but there's still not a full phase over the OV like the GFS has.

post-611-0-91996000-1292778516.gif

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