yhbrooklyn Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The consistency is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 What's this now, 7, 8, 9 straight runs with an east coast bomb on the GFS? That's amazing. It also has support from the Euro and UKMET so this is definitely our best threat of the winter so far. um be careful here... the euro euro essembles and Ukmet are NOTHING like the last several runs of the GFS operational runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Now the ECMWF is starting to picking it up, I feel that this may be the one. Extreme consistency like 1978 and 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Oh, my, thank you for the laugh, this was funny as hell! Why do we care about where a Roman mythical one eyed creature is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 um be careful here... the euro euro essembles and Ukmet are NOTHING like the last several runs of the GFS operational runs I didn't mean "support" as in a literal east coast bomb - I meant it as in a nice accumulating snow for the mid-atlantic on Christmas. The UKMET, and the Euro and its ensembles all show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Anyone a bit concerned that it ends up further north in time? We need the cyclops to be far enough south to guide the storm ENE, then cause it to reform near the outer banks/capes. If the cyclops is too far north/weaker, the storm will be in the OV- whats to keep it south? Solutions like this GFS make me leary of any northern stream phasing. Twice bitten, once shy I guess. yes the pinned thread and yesterday Models threads... I mentioed this is a real concern the only reason I think this further south track MIGHT happen is that the the euro and euro ensemble are also way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I didn't mean "support" as in a literal east coast bomb - I meant it as in a nice accumulating snow for the mid-atlantic on Christmas. The UKMET, and the Euro and its ensembles all show that. OK fair enough as long as folks know the last several runs of the operational GFS has NO support at all from any other Model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Why do we care about where a Roman mythical one eyed creature is? ...as long as it doesn't end up being a Medusa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Now the ECMWF is starting to picking it up, I feel that this may be the one. Extreme consistency like 1978 and 1996. ??????? 1978 and 1966.. you have to be kidding can you explain to me how the 0z euro . 0z euro ensemble are any thing close to the 12z and 0z GFS runs ... the last 5 runs of the run have had this Low but nothing like the gfs super bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Now the ECMWF is starting to picking it up, I feel that this may be the one. Extreme consistency like 1978 and 1996. For a rather cautious guy (when it comes to weather), that's a pretty bold statement.. Looking forward to your anaylsis!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ??????? can you explain to me how the 0z euro . 0z euro ensemble are any thing close to the 12z and 0z GFS runs ... the last 5 runs of the run have had this Low but nothing like the gfs super bomb Also included in this are the 00z UKmet and 00z GGEM which do not have a GFS super bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Now the ECMWF is starting to picking it up, I feel that this may be the one. Extreme consistency like 1978 and 1996. Wow, that is a bold statement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Any bets on when the GFS loses this amazing solution only to bring it back 48 hours before the storm? On Friday morning when I settle in by the fire with a fresh cup of coffee while listening to Bing Crosby's "White Christmas" and scrolling down the 6z model analysis on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The GFS-based NAO prediction shows a brief return to neutral during the height of the storm. Could this be an Archambeault-special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This reminds me of the euro which had the super bomb last week several days out and then lost it a few runs later. If the 12z euro jumps on board today this board will be exploding.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like GGEM is gonna come in GFS-eque! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The GFS-based NAO prediction shows a brief return to neutral during the height of the storm. Could this be an Archambeault-special? If it bombs it will fill the space left by the previous Western Atlantic LP, thus having at least some ridging over Greenland/Iceland. So cold air will once again flow down in the eastern half of the US. As long as the evolution in the Atlantic remains constant with theWest Coast Trof, there's nothing really to shift the long wave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This reminds me of the euro which had the super bomb last week several days out and then lost it a few runs later. If the 12z euro jumps on board today this board will be exploding.... Difference is, it had a superbomb for one or two runs before loosing it (and then had that hiccup of a run showing it one last time). Whereas the GFS has had this for 7-8 runs already. Consistency like that is rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like I spoke too soon on GGEM, but H5 trended MUCH deeper @ 144 hours...still could turn corner though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ggem a little further south than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like GGEM is gonna come in GFS-eque! It's been trending north its last few runs, but there's still not a full phase over the OV like the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Difference is, it had a superbomb for one or two runs before loosing it (and then had that hiccup of a run showing it one last time). Whereas the GFS has had this for 7-8 runs already. Consistency like that is rare. Not impressed at all by the GFS consistency. None . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ggem a little further south than the gfs I think thats a good thing for all interested EC parties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GGEM not great @ 144, but compare it to the 00z GGEM and you can see the drastic differences at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not impressed at all by the GFS consistency. None . Agreed Dave. GFS was consistently wrong for several (6-7?) consecutive runs with the current storm. Ens mean looks good though and now we wait for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 at 500 MB the 12z CMC is showing that is a Low that is going to scott off the coast and NOT Bomb out close enough to bring back the blizzard of 78 The ridge axis over the Rockies ...on all then Model... is in My opinion too far east for the BOMB to occur close enough to the coast as the last several runs of the operational GFS insists on showing It's been trending north its last few runs, but there's still not a full phase over the OV like the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Not impressed at all by the GFS consistency. None . one thing you can give the gfs credit on is it picked up on this storm first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GGEM not great @ 144, but compare it to the 00z GGEM and you can see the drastic differences at H5 Lots more wiggle room with this system. Even a non-phased system still seems to provide some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 at 500 MB the 12z CMC is showing that is a Low that is going to scott off the coast and NOT Bomb out close enough to bring back the blizzard of 78 the changes from run to run of the CMC is comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 DT, the ggem is gonna be a southern slider, but it is an awefully big trend better than the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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