Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Below freezing at surface it appears till very end of event based on soundings Edit at DYL I am screwed up this way in Bucks County aren't I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thats not good. My bet is no school and I am going to be busy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teflon Beamer Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What about in the ILG area? Should I think about bringing my employees in late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What about in the ILG area? Should I think about bringing my employees in late? ILG goes above freezing before 7AM (based on NAM soundings) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 DYL is close to abo ve freezing at 10am before precip moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ABE should see ice storm warnings! SHEESH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 DYL 7am tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teflon Beamer Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ILG goes above freezing before 7AM (based on NAM soundings) Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ABE 7am tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I have been biting my tongue on this. But I'm really starting to get worried for certain portions of our area. I'm reserving complete statements for another few hours as I'm curious to see how this performs in some of the other areas of the US with similar conditions. I'm partially counting on the precipitation falling with such ferocity that the glaze is not near what it is estimated to be looking purely at the models. This requires a little human manipulation of the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Aren't we looking at 29-30 with temps creeping up during the ZR for the NW burbs according to the soundings? This should reduce the accretion during heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think a consideration that has to be made is how much snow is still on trees. Yesterday's plastering, from all pictures I've seen, just covered most trees. If that is still mostly intact tonight... wow could it be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If the layer(s) above the surface are sufficiently below freezing to allow the rain to be supercooled, 29-30 would more than do the trick. Now, that being said, it wouldn't be too terribly much of an issue if this were happening 5 hours after sunrise and temps were 29-30. The combination of marginal temps in the layer above the surface and borderline below surface temps compounded with the rate at which the precip falls will be our best predictor of what sticks around. IE: High rate of precip and marginal on both fronts? Nuisance Ice (still dangerous) BUT If precip falls at a low rate to begin with and we begin to accumulate enough ice to constitute a true 'glaze'? We could be in for a mound of trouble. Freezing Rain is just too difficult to nail down right away. This is going to come down to the hours before. Just don't forget all the snow that's laying around. I saw 2-3" of snow on POWERLINES here in York. That snow is more than capable of sucking up any moisture that falls. No matter how hard the precip falls. Same for trees. Aren't we looking at 29-30 with temps creeping up during the ZR for the NW burbs according to the soundings? This should reduce the accretion during heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Another problem is that snow is still on some roads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Agree on the rates, Seminole. And, Ray, yes the trees and even power lines still have a boatload of snow on them. Also, the clouds have moved in to a certain degree, which should help reduce melting. This will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ukie is COLD for tonight/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaMike Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 All the storm drains around here are covered with three feet of cement. Heavy precip rates are going to result in a large amount of standing water on the roadway ready to freeze solid when the temp drops. On the plus side the snow should soak up a lot of the rain and people didn't clear their drain outlets at the curb so the water will not be able to drain off the roofs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Pine trees here look like weeping willows and with the a temp of 25F high temps may not reach forecasted levels heavy ice accrual would be terrible Heading out to get a spare chainsaw chain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Temp is 26F. Hard to think it goes above that with a NE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ECM is warmer to the point it would help lower portions of SEPA avoid major icing, not sure yet about far N&W. Central jersey would avoid icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think a consideration that has to be made is how much snow is still on trees. Yesterday's plastering, from all pictures I've seen, just covered most trees. If that is still mostly intact tonight... wow could it be bad. This is my main worry. Everything here is still heavily plastered with 3" of snow or more. Even small branches. It could be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12z data with GFS/NAM for NW Chesco - not looking good - here is the rundown Snow/Sleet arrive around midnight temp 21.8Heavy Sleet at 4am temp 25.0 (0.26" w.e.)Mix of IP/ZR at 7am temp 28.1 (0.70" w.e.)ZR at 10am temp 30.9 (1.16" w.e.)12 noon ZR temp 32.0 (1.31")above freezing by 1230 am with another 0.16" falling as plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ECM slower bringing precipitation in allows more warming, much less snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ECM is warmer to the point it would help lower portions of SEPA avoid major icing, not sure yet about far N&W. Central jersey would avoid icingec doesn't handle surface cold very well fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ec doesn't handle surface cold very well fyi Central Jersey would warm without a problem from ocean and east winds but yes SEPA questionable, far N&W still set for big icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Central Jersey would warm without a problem from ocean and east winds but yes SEPA questionable, far N&W still set for big icingstrongly agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My experience of living through severe ice storms in the mid south is this: Once the snow clumps come off the trees with sleet or freezing rain, ice starts accruing real quick because of the thin coating of snow left behind on the limbs still remains. If the temp is not rising watch out. The second issue is that any ice accrual over .5 of an inch will definitely cause power outages because the tree branches are still weak from Sandy. I have been picking up and cutting branches for two years from that storm event because many broken branches are still hanging in the trees. The last issue that if we get any wind, we are screwed big time. The wind will worsen the situation greatly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HRRR is pretty bullish with front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SREF still wants to give KDYL 1.23 of QPF, with like 5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 HRRR is pretty bullish with front end snow. This isn't bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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