kpantz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I am no expert in ZR/IP situations but I think light ZR is worse then heavy ZR, unless its below 30F. I think a WSW should be issued if the 0z GFS/RGEM show more snow and ice for PHL Metro... Moderate to heavy ZR with temps between 30-32 is almost plain rain. You've got latent heat release of freezing going on as well as air that can't freeze the rain fast enough. Would it melt everything that falls up to that point? No - but you'd be hard-pressed to accrete much further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM is hard to discount at this stage. If HiRES models tomorrow show colder solutions, then it is game on IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Moderate to heavy ZR with temps between 30-32 is almost plain rain. You've got latent heat release of freezing going on as well as air that can't freeze the rain fast enough. Would it melt everything that falls up to that point? No - but you'd be hard-pressed to accrete much further. I think now. Thank you. This may come down to nowcasting then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM is hard to discount at this stage. If HiRES models tomorrow show colder solutions, then it is game on IMO If you do live in Wrightstown Twp, then my fire dept covers you. What a small world lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I have weatherbell, where do I find these? Its "SREF - Cities". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SREF for KABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SREF for KABE Does that actually say "snowitation"? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS 850 above freezing at 4am Allentown on south. I think these snowfall number I keep heating the news and here are way overdone. Am I missing something here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Diehard, good stuff! Let's grab a beer at the Publick House Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z RGEM : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z RGEM : That's a lot of rain for Levittown Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ECM holds with the coldest look. Lowers QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Warnings up now for Lehigh. Looks like NWS is noticing the warmer uppers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 pretty cold this AM, lots of single digits, low teens up this way. A bit colder than forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wxsim with 6z data has mainly a sleetfest with Heavy Sleet arriving by 1am temp at 23.6 - through 7am tomorrow AM with about 0.50" falling as IP so maybe 1 to 3" of sleet followed by ZR (0.42") between 7am-1230p then a little light rain with temps struggling to 33.7 for the high. By the way it already sees snow arriving Sunday late day with 20" to 25" of snow by Monday late AM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't see much sleet with this at all based on soundings. Quick 1-2" of snow/sleet then Quickly ZR. Upper levels scorching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I don't see much sleet with this at all based on soundings. Quick 1-2" of snow/sleet then Quickly ZR. Upper levels scorchingagreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 hopefully something changes to avoid major ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 hopefully something changes to avoid major icewe really need to drop some of the slop that is on the trees today else I smell lots of power outages tonight and tomorrow am. Already plenty of limbs and lines down in my area...sure you have it up in qtown already as well andy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I am in the .25 - .50 inch ice accretion zone. Is that enough to cause power outages? Thinking of buying some gas for the generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Glad I have an automatic generator that kicks in exactly 10 seconds (I hope) after power goes out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 we really need to drop some of the slop that is on the trees today else I smell lots of power outages tonight and tomorrow am. Already plenty of limbs and lines down in my area...sure you have it up in qtown already as well andy Trees seem to be the biggest concern, I'd say, especially if we can't shake the snow from them today. I'm seeing surface temps >28F during the ZR period even up here, so you're going to wind up with slush. It'll probably be enough to close schools and such, but I'm not sure this is something we'll be talking about for weeks to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I am in the .25 - .50 inch ice accretion zone. Is that enough to cause power outages? Thinking of buying some gas for the generator.get gas soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah, agree. I think this will be low end warning type stuff based on everything we are seeing right now. As you said yesterday, hard to get much ice accretion with mod-heavy rain and temps near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I could be wrong but quick glance at the nam is a major ice storm n and w of I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The lights flickered a lot yesterday and my PC rebooted twice. I hope this won't be like Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I could be wrong but quick glance at the nam is a major ice storm n and w of I95 Indeed. 850's are even warmer. Should be changed to Ice Storm Warnings....probably in afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What are the temps on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just checked NAM soundings at DYL. Shows a lot of ZR with crazy warm upper levels. Have believe with precip rates it won't be as bad as shown, at least, that is what I am hoping *gulp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What are the temps on the NAM?Below freezing at surface it appears till very end of event based on soundingsEdit at DYL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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