Plokoon111 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ooh duh nevermind haha. My brain is getting confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The BIG QUESTION NOW is just how much colder will this storm trend for Tuesday into Wednesday... Major Icing is a concern away from the city for sure to about Reading to Quakertown would not shock me to see this shoved further south and east. The new snow pack of 7" from Media points north and west will play havoc with surface temps and the models will have to adjust big time. Should be interesting to see how cold it gets tonight under clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I live in Toms River and have a 7AM meeting...the forecast says rain and snow after midnight...accumulation up to 1 inch....will there be any issues over here for that commute or should we be looking at just wet roads here by then...need to know so can relay to others..thanks Edit: Wed morning obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That certainly doesn't look like an easy forecast. I can't quite figure out their angle on this one. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Horsham&state=PA&site=PHI&lat=40.1825&lon=-75.1392#.UvBIcH-9KSM Tuesday Night: Snow before 4am, then snow and sleet. Low around 31. Light east wind becoming northeast 6 to 11 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday: Rain, snow, and sleet before 1pm, then a chance of rain between 1pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet after 5pm. High near 35. East wind 7 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Synoptically is this a good setup for ice into the city? I actually kind of want to see a big ice storm in my life...NAM is still below freezing at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Synoptically is this a good setup for ice into the city? I actually kind of want to see a big ice storm in my life...NAM is still below freezing at 36 hours. I understand your point,but honestly,IF you do get a big one you'll rue the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I understand your point,but honestly,IF you do get a big one you'll rue the day... Not a lot of trees where I live, so powerouttages would be scarce, I'd just like to see .5+ of ice, would be fun lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Synoptically is this a good setup for ice into the city? I actually kind of want to see a big ice storm in my life...NAM is still below freezing at 36 hours. I've been through several very bad ice storms in excess of an inch. They are very bad not enjoyable. Though reflections of thick ice are cool to look at. For prime ice accumulation you want temps in the mid to upper 20s or colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Synoptically is this a good setup for ice into the city? I actually kind of want to see a big ice storm in my life...NAM is still below freezing at 36 hours. I've been through several very bad ice storms in excess of an inch. They are very bad not enjoyable. Though reflections of thick ice are cool to look at. For prime ice accumulation you want temps in the mid to upper 20s or colder. Hypothetically then, would the 00z NAM be anything but a little sleet then rain for the city? We're below freezing, but probably not by much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z 4KM NAM has PHL below or at freezing throughout the storm... same with the burbs of course. Looks like .9QPF into PHL/Lower Bucks, .8QPF into Central Bucks and .7QPF for Upper Bucks... I would say 2"-4" for Central Bucks, then .4" or ZR/IP. Upper Bucks looks like 4"-6"(Again) with some IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Mod-heavy rain and temps just below freezing does not translate to big ice event. Latent heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The WxBell "Precip Type + Accum" shows Central Bucks jackpots with .5" Ice+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Mod-heavy rain and temps just below freezing does not translate to big ice event. Latent heat Ya, I can see that for the city it self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hypothetically then, would the 00z NAM be anything but a little sleet then rain for the city? We're below freezing, but probably not by much... yes this could be aCase of liquid rain and temps just below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM Fire Wx Nest has Bucks in the Upper 20s through 7am. It also has colder 850 temps and supports 4"-6" switching over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not a lot of trees where I live, so powerouttages would be scarce, I'd just like to see .5+ of ice, would be fun lol An intense ice storm is a sight, to be sure. I was around for 1/7/1994. I do kinda wish I could see something like that again. Though, we were very lucky, with only one tree downed (and in a non-destructive direction) and no power loss. Some branches did take aim at me though they missed by a few seconds, fortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM Fire Wx Nest has Bucks in the Upper 20s through 7am. It also has colder 850 temps and supports 4"-6" switching over. I've seen colder and Ive read warmer...can someone clarify please?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I've seen colder and Ive read warmer...can someone clarify please?! Look in the NYC Metro thread... a snowmap was posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 An intense ice storm is a sight, to be sure. I was around for 1/7/1994. I do kinda wish I could see something like that again. Though, we were very lucky, with only one tree downed (and in a non-destructive direction) and no power loss. Some branches did take aim at me though they missed by a few seconds, fortunately. Yeah, that was pretty cool...wouldn't mind seeing it again. We already have a good snowpack so I wouldn't be opposed to a couple inches of snow tomorrow night followed by fz rain to crystallize everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SREFs are pretty bullish on snowfall. KDYL : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I always love the RGEM for precip type compared to any other model, it was almost perfect for today's storm, that would be one helluva mixed bag for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Diehard can you link me to where you get those maps from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I always love the RGEM for precip type compared to any other model, it was almost perfect for today's storm, that would be one helluva mixed bag for our area Its showing 1" for PHL. 1.1"/1.2" for Bucks. Looks like .25 ZR for PHL and Bucks besides KDYL area with .5ZR. The rest must be snow then because IP is .1... I am not sure lol without looking at soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Diehard can you link me to where you get those maps from There WxBell products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM 850's above freezing for most of the event for central NJ. But 10 meter temps below freezing. mostly sleet / freezing rain seems like a given there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM 850's above freezing for most of the event for central NJ. But 10 meter temps below freezing. mostly sleet / freezing rain seems like a given there. Yes, but the NAM has been the warmest of the guidance for a couple days. If it's right, all the other models are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM 850's above freezing for most of the event for central NJ. But 10 meter temps below freezing. mostly sleet / freezing rain seems like a given there. I am no expert in ZR/IP situations but I think light ZR is worse then heavy ZR, unless its below 30F. I think a WSW should be issued if the 0z GFS/RGEM show more snow and ice for PHL Metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Not a lot of trees where I live, so powerouttages would be scarce, I'd just like to see .5+ of ice, would be fun lol Seeing the trees coated with ice is a sight to remember. I remember during the morning bus ride to high school( I'm guessing late seventy's) and seeing the morning sun lighting up every tree along the way to school which was coated with ice was just indescribable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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