tcutter Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Depends on what model you believe. If the NAM is right, it's major ice. If the RGEM (and now the latest GFS) is right, it's mostly snow with some mixing towards the end. if the GFS is right does that mean more of an ice storm for the Philly area?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z GFS is colder, 4-6" snow N&W burbs then ZR/IP last third of storm. Lehigh Valley 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 if the GFS is right does that mean more of an ice storm for the Philly area??Philly is snow to ice to a bit of rain on the GFS. Nothing too major...at least nothing like what upper Bucks county gets this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RGEM pummels lehigh valley with IP after initial snow, and major ice bucks montco , chester I don't like the fact it handled current storm this well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 UKMET is the coldest solution yet...all snow down to around DYL with 8-14" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z GFS is colder, 4-6" snow N&W burbs then ZR/IP last third of storm. Lehigh Valley 6-10" I'm assuming northern Berks is close to if not in that 6-10 range as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The europeans will save us! payback for WW2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm assuming northern Berks is close to if not in that 6-10 range as well? Very little taint there on GFS mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Very little taint there on GFS mostly snow Thank you. Very good news. I can do without the ice. Its clear the trend is now a quicker transfer and a colder overall solution. My guess is just like every other storm this year it will continue to trend that way until the storm starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 UKMET is the coldest solution yet...all snow down to around DYL with 8-14" totals. Jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 BUFKIT profiles on the GFS for ABE and MMU still indicate more ZR than snow. Only GFS snow map I saw (instantweathermaps) showed 8". Curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Since down here we are either going to have zr or 34 and rain, I would take the 34 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Since down here we are either going to have zr or 34 and rain, I would take the 34 and rain I wouldn't rule out a sleetfest if low levels trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I wouldn't be shocked if the low levels trended colder while the mid levels trended warmer turning it into sleet for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I wouldn't rule out a sleetfest if low levels trend colder. I didn't even read this. LOL a sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 No idea how much ice and all that but euro ticked colder by 25 miles. crazy snowmaps 8" upper bucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Can you post some maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Via Earthlight: Raw data snow and sleet totals from the Euro are 6-8" for NYC and all of NJ north of Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Via Earthlight: Raw data snow and sleet totals from the Euro are 6-8" for NYC and all of NJ north of Trenton. Not at TTN, that's for sure. I hope he's not looking at WxBell map because that's overdoing it for sure. At TTN maybe 3". That's pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Remember the trends of these types of events. The low levels trend colder while the mid levels trend warmer. Sleet is coming. You will all have to deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 the storm total forecast map on the Mt Holly NWS page indicates it's for the upcoming storm ... storm total forecast ending wednesday 7pmhttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ill take sleet over ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 the storm total forecast map on the Mt Holly NWS page indicates it's for the upcoming storm ... storm total forecast ending wednesday 7pm http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Ending Wednesday 7pm. Starting now. Fairly certain that includes the current storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ill take sleet over ice and IP is underrated, just ask Rob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm guessing that we get a watch for the CWA after this warning expires? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ill take sleet over ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm guessing that we get a watch for the CWA after this warning expires? Yeah, Mt Holly AFD seemed to indicate they would have already posted a watch but did not want to draw focus away from the current storm. I'd expect later this evening or overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 when I click that link it says snowfall ending at 7PM Monday not Wednesday the nyc thread analyzing the next storm is hard to read, what is a realistic expectation for central jersey for this system...maybe 1-3 inches of snow to some sleet and freezing rain and then some cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 the storm total forecast map on the Mt Holly NWS page indicates it's for the upcoming storm ... storm total forecast ending wednesday 7pm http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Corrected, now says ending 7 PM Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 when I click that link it says snowfall ending at 7PM Monday not Wednesday the nyc thread analyzing the next storm is hard to read, what is a realistic expectation for central jersey for this system...maybe 1-3 inches of snow to some sleet and freezing rain and then some cold rain? That's what I think TTN gets. But I did bust a bit low today. Forecast 4-7 and looks like they'll get 8. So who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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