RedSky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS made a move south, not far from ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS made a move south, not far from ECMWhile the NAM cuts the low into Ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is still pretty cold, not like 12z though. Ice storm for SE PA, snowstorm north of I-78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 ECM snowmaps are 8-10" N&W I95 drastic gradient south and east nothing looks high maybe not accounting for warm layer or mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 ^^^ those vs maps are funky. 850's are torching up to Allentown, as well as the thickness. But, the surface cad signal is strong. Ore like ip & zr for the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Poconos ski areas are long over due for a nice snow storm, this could be the one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Might be a HIP wed (Historic IP storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Might be a HIP wed (Historic IP storm)Worst since the Valentine's Day storm in 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 early indications are ECM colder now trending to major winter events back to back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Where are the ECM updates for 2/5 storm? QPF please Doesn't look colder as indicated in NYC side on crappy maps i see Appears to target lehigh valley with heaviest snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Where are the ECM updates for 2/5 storm? QPF please Doesn't look colder as indicated in NYC side on crappy maps i see Appears to target lehigh valley with heaviest snow The warm air surges fast at 800 mb, it looks like TTN doesn't even get an inch of snow. Then lots of sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The warm air surges fast at 800 mb, it looks like TTN doesn't even get an inch of snow. Then lots of sleet and freezing rain. Ray would you say mostly snow line is I78 or north of there? Looks to be big gradient north burbs down to philly with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Ray would you say mostly snow line is I78 or north of there? Looks to be big gradient north burbs down to philly with this one EC changes ABE over but I could see maybe 3-5" of snow there before then, again this is based solely on 12Z EC. The 800mb 0C line makes it up to MPO by 12Z Wednesday so even the Pocs could get sleeted on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Valentines day 2007 part deuce? i remember that one well, 7" of sleet, people stranded on 78.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Valentines day 2007 part deuce? i remember that one well, 7" of sleet, people stranded on 78.. If that scenario happens, even close to that storm;(my loc.4/6"Snow+6"Sleet+6+"Snow on top) I'd Love it...sooo many newbies have moved in around here and have No idea...that mixture was impossible to plow,even shovel...took a front end loader to get my driveway open,after 3 days shut in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Valentines day 2007 part deuce? i remember that one well, 7" of sleet, people stranded on 78.. I love a good winter storm... But please not this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 HWO for Lehigh Valley, Warren, Sussex (NJ), so. Poconos: THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION,INCLUDING SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If that scenario happens, even close to that storm;(my loc.4/6"Snow+6"Sleet+6+"Snow on top) I'd Love it...sooo many newbies have moved in around here and have No idea...that mixture was impossible to plow,even shovel...took a front end loader to get my driveway open,after 3 days shut in... Yes and I believe we only had a winter weather advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 HWO for Lehigh Valley, Warren, Sussex (NJ), so. Poconos: THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SUBSTANTIAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION,INCLUDING SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. The HWO for this area actually mentions (2) WSW's, one for tomorrow and one for Tuesday night, although the one for Tuesday night does not appear to have been issued(?). Interesting to see for 2 separate dates in the same HWO in this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Need a euro update before bed so far all i got is a tick NW which wouldn't be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ok ECM gives quakertown 8" snow it is colder, most precip is over at changeover to ZR * some percentage of that 8" could be IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM looks like an epic ice storm for the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yah - gotta wait to see the profiles, but it doesn't look pretty. Thinking, though, based on past experience that with marginal temps and heavier precip, you get a fair amount of melting despite it still technically being freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yah - gotta wait to see the profiles, but it doesn't look pretty. Thinking, though, based on past experience that with marginal temps and heavier precip, you get a fair amount of melting despite it still technically being freezing rain. Yeah, best (well, worst) ZR events are slow and steady. Besides the fact the rain doesn't have time to freeze on trees when its falling really hard, the harder the rain falls means the faster the air warms as all that moisture releases heat into the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I have big concern of the icing that will occur considering the nature of the current heavy wet snow which has adhered to everything, ice on that is going to bring down trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I have big concern of the icing that will occur considering the nature of the current heavy wet snow which has adhered to everything, ice on that is going to bring down trees Possible... though above freezing temperatures may allow snow to melt of the trees tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah, best (well, worst) ZR events are slow and steady. Besides the fact the rain doesn't have time to freeze on trees when its falling really hard, the harder the rain falls means the faster the air warms as all that moisture releases heat into the atmosphere. Especially when we'll probably be 30-31 when it's raining. 25 degrees and you'll do alot better with ice accretion during heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z RGEM is very cold - 6-12" of snow/sleet in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, and up to .75" of ice in the NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z RGEM is very cold - 6-12" of snow/sleet in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos, and up to .75" of ice in the NW burbs. Actually just getting ready to ask...is this looking like more of a snow than ice event in Lehigh Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Actually just getting ready to ask...is this looking like more of a snow than ice event in Lehigh Valley?Depends on what model you believe. If the NAM is right, it's major ice. If the RGEM (and now the latest GFS) is right, it's mostly snow with some mixing towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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