Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Models have been notorious this winter for showing a large storm in this range only to lose it 7 days out. Lets hope this system isnt another case of this by the models. Looks like there is some support for this particular system however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 DGEX fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 With ratios this would rival or surpass '96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Gfs still consistent with the cutter look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 It's been the opposite of consistent though. 00z and 6z had a coastal storm. The Euro has also been wildly changing from run to run which is very uncharacteristic of it. Like everyone else has been saying, just ride the ensembles for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 It's been the opposite of consistent though. 00z and 6z had a coastal storm. The Euro has also been wildly changing from run to run which is very uncharacteristic of it. Like everyone else has been saying, just ride the ensembles for now. Exactly. Only 12z has "consistently" been showing the cutter. But even this run forms a secondary, albeit too late, still better than a true cutter. Sent from my HTC ONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 what model is this? In house wxbell? With ratios this would rival or surpass '96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 what model is this? In house wxbell? 6z GFS output or ECM control, about the best fantasy snow map since 2010 0z ECM ensembles support a big winter storm should be a fun ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 6z GFS output or ECM control, about the best fantasy snow map since 2010 0z ECM ensembles support a big winter storm should be a fun ride Thanks, I just googled it. Seems to be the ECM Ensemble control run. I did not know the control run had an ensemble package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Thanks, I just googled it. Seems to be the ECM Ensemble control run. I did not know the control run had an ensemble package. Should have noted that I found it on Steve D's Twitter page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z CMC is basically the same as last night's 0z run. Massive snowstorm north of the M/D line. Some ice/rain for SE PA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Thanks, I just googled it. Seems to be the ECM Ensemble control run. I did not know the control run had an ensemble package. Note that the ECM control run is not the ECM operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Gfs still consistent with the cutter look. Far from consistent, and once again the GEFS are way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Gfs still consistent with the cutter look. Far from consistent, and once again the GEFS are way south. this is a breath of fresh air after seeing the op gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 this is a breath of fresh air after seeing the op gfs Check out the GGEM, looks similar to the Euro control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ggem is a mecs I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z euro on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Someone care to point out all the organizations which are sharing the EPS Control Run snowfall map from WxBell showing 30+ inches on Facebook? They all need a double facepalm from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 JMO - but looking at the 12z data this one will be mostly a rainer for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Someone care to point out all the organizations which are sharing the EPS Control Run snowfall map from WxBell showing 30+ inches on Facebook? They all need a double facepalm from me I've already had the store manager at work show me this map in a panic and ask if it was true.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Why have I never seen a "control run" map until today? What is the control run anyway, and how does it relate to the operational/ensembles? It seems most of the operational models are hanging a bit further north. This will greatly affect my travel plans so let's go models, get with the program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 JMO - but looking at the 12z data this one will be mostly a rainer for us. 7 days out...great analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Did a full breakdown of my ideas in the AFD today. Like 12Z ec track snow to ice to rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Why have I never seen a "control run" map until today? What is the control run anyway, and how does it relate to the operational/ensembles? It seems most of the operational models are hanging a bit further north. This will greatly affect my travel plans so let's go models, get with the program. Its basically a lower resolution version of the European operational. So not as good as the Euro op. In more detail: EPS is Ensemble Prediction System. Ensembles are lower resolution simulations which are created by slightly altering the initial data fed into them, on the assumption that not all that data may actually be quite correct or that certain details may have been missed from the observations. The Control Run is an ensemble simulation which is fed data without any changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 7 days out...great analysis Mainly based on the fact that the EC mean was warmer than the operational and the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Did a full breakdown of my ideas in the AFD today. Like 12Z ec track snow to ice to rain to snow. Thanks, just read it. I enjoyed the write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 6abc = ice/rain tuesday, soaking rain wednesday. nbc10 = snow/rain , rain/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frankc103 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What or where is the afd?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What or where is the afd?? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/PHI/AFDPHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What or where is the afd?? It is Area Forecast Discussion put out on your local NWS page. Welcome aboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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