DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 They should of kept the ice forecast the same except expanding it. They backed down totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 They should of kept the ice forecast the same except expanding it. They backed down totals. Hey guy. I think you are relatively new here, but you should reconsider commenting on what the best mets in the business "should" do. There are ways to disagree without straight up discounting the professional opinion of the guys with one of the hardest areas to forecast in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hey guy. I think you are relatively new here, but you should reconsider commenting on what the best mets in the business "should" do. There are ways to disagree without straight up discounting the professional opinion of the guys with one of the hardest areas to forecast in the country. Been lurking for awhile I am not bashing them, just surprised. I did not even say anything negative... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 lifted from NYC folks 18Z NAM total ZR yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My apologies if this sounds too critical, but I have to ask about the major discrepancies in snow, especially (and ice), along the border between the NWS NYC and Philly counties - others asked in the NYC thread, but haven't seen a good answer explaining it yet. Almost looks like no collaboration occurred, or else I'm missing something. Hard to have 4-6" in Union and <1" in adjacent Middlesex and 1-2" in adjacent Somerset or 2-4" in SI and <1" in adjacent (and further inland) Middlesex. And that's just for the snow. Both can't be right. Anyone have an explanation? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My apologies if this sounds too critical, but I have to ask about the major discrepancies in snow, especially (and ice), along the border between the NWS NYC and Philly counties - others asked in the NYC thread, but haven't seen a good answer explaining it yet. Almost looks like no collaboration occurred, or else I'm missing something. Hard to have 4-6" in Union and <1" in adjacent Middlesex and 1-2" in adjacent Somerset or 2-4" in SI and <1" in adjacent (and further inland) Middlesex. And that's just for the snow. Both can't be right. Anyone have an explanation? Thanks. probably only explanation is that it is a very tough storm to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The 18z hi res NAM did not look pretty. Over 10 hours of freezing rain at .5"+ for southern MontCo and nearly all of Bucks. It's starting to look like that no matter WHERE it trends, north or south, east or west, a large area is going to be in for a major ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sorta unexpectedly, temp zoomed to 27 near 3 this after...now coasting back down since, we're at 22... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Glenn, if you are watching, what model you use for future weather? NAM has us below freezing throughout and you have central bucks to plain rain by 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Is there normally this much of a discrepancy between the NAM and the 4km NAM? NAM is all ZR while 4km is 6-10" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 but did you see they bumped up the icing totals somewhat significantly? I guess this means I should say goodbye to my power then. o.o Okay, maybe my power won't go out, but that's some serious ice accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Heading down to an Appt.in A-town last week, we noticed tree cutting crews feverishly at work in the Upper LV Rte.309/873 area and the way they were cutting looked like at least a 5 yr cut,maybe 10(basically any trees cut back to where it would take5/10 to grow back or actually cut off below the wires)...In my area in fall they did a 5 yr. cut,that was after a 10 yr. cut in 06...Hopefully that was done over a "wider" area...PPL is very proactive,it looks freakish,but if ur power stays on or the outtage is shortened you won't mind it too much...We Just passed the 9 yr. anniversary of the back to back to back storms which left a good chunk of NEPA and NWNJ "OUT" for 3 days to 3 weeks...my area was lucky,just 5 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So, question -- would this be more of an Ice Storm Warning situation vs. Winter Storm Warning? Yes, there is a mix of weather types -- snow, sleet, and freezing rain, but the ice is the major threat here, particularly in more southern areas. Also -- an ISW would generate emergency alerts going out to mobile devices so that people were aware of the situation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So, question -- would this be more of an Ice Storm Warning situation vs. Winter Storm Warning? Yes, there is a mix of weather types -- snow, sleet, and freezing rain, but the ice is the major threat here, particularly in more southern areas. Also -- an ISW would generate emergency alerts going out to mobile devices so that people were aware of the situation here. I believe once the precip changes over to all freezing rain the warning can goto an ice storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yeah, got it... but is that really too late? In my view, this is an ice storm with some snow...not a snowstorm with some ice. I think there has to be a little flexibility with the issuance, and the warning needs to emphasize the most critical threat -- and also take advantage of the notification service that automatically goes along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Freezing rain warning is what it is called. And with several types of precip, winter storm warning makes more sense http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/images/ER_FZ_Rain_WRNG_CriteriaPHI.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Freezing rain warning is what it is called. And with several types of precip, winter storm warning makes more sense http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/images/ER_FZ_Rain_WRNG_CriteriaPHI.jpg I don't think the NWS issues a "Freezing Rain Warning", I think it is an "Ice Storm Warning". That is just the criteria used for issuing a warning related to ice..though correct me if I am wrong, please. Secondly, I get that there are mixed precip types, but really, people shouldn't get too worried about a few inches of snow. We're used to that by now... it's the 1/4 - 1/2" of ice that is the real problem. Anyway, we'll just have to see what Mt. Holly decides based on the latest info they have. I trust their judgment, just asking the broader group for opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I don't think the NWS issues a "Freezing Rain Warning", I think it is an "Ice Storm Warning". That is just the criteria used for issuing a warning related to ice..though correct me if I am wrong, please. Secondly, I get that there are mixed precip types, but really, people shouldn't get too worried about a few inches of snow. We're used to that by now... it's the 1/4 - 1/2" of ice that is the real problem. Anyway, we'll just have to see what Mt. Holly decides based e latest info they have. I trust their judgment, just asking the broader group for opinions. Sorry, yes I think you are correct about the ice storm warning For some reason I thought they changed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Haven't read anything about latest gfs and the various short range models?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Haven't read anything about latest gfs and the various short range models?! If anything, it looks less and less snowy, which combined with the radar etc, seems to be correct. As far as ice... yet to be seen exactly what happens. The NAM usually does best with low level temps. Edit: Thought this was the obs thread. Woops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 i'm still baffled how so many areas in interior northern and central NJ got so much snow...while 850's were above freezing. the changeover for most areas to freezing rain seemed to be around 6am'ish .. But 850's were still above freezing around 2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 i'm still baffled how so many areas in interior northern and central NJ got so much snow...while 850's were above freezing. the changeover for most areas to freezing rain seemed to be around 6am'ish .. But 850's were still above freezing around 2am. Well obviously the 850s weren't above freezing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 what about if it was only below freezing from 4,000 feet..downward. snow still possible? I only compared 10m + 850 temps. learning lesson for the future.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 what about 925 temps? With them being above freezing with this storm, is that was caused us to get so much freezing rain instead of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 what about if it was only below freezing from 4,000 feet..downward. snow still possible? I only compared 10m + 850 temps. learning lesson for the future.. Not really. If you have an insanely strong inversion, I mean from freezing at 4,000 to -10 to -15C near the surface, and then some fog/low clouds, that "might" squeeze out a few snowflakes, but that's an extremely rare scenario. Basically, what happened for you was that the heavy precip overcame the warm push, cooling the column enough so that it fell as snow. This is also known as dynamic cooling, but basically amounts to this: the heat absorbed by melting precipitation was from the surrounding air, causing the air to cool down to freezing and thus allowing snow to reach the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 what about 925 temps? With them being above freezing with this storm, is that was caused us to get so much freezing rain instead of sleet? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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