famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ptype at same time, sleet rapidly moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This isn't bullish. 2 AM? just getting started at that point right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It only goes out to HR 15. It has 850 temps -2C, NAM/GFS have it go above 0 early on, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Worcester, PA 28 degrees. The sun has made some, but limited progress in melting the snow off the trees. The areas on the shady side of the trees are untouched as we have remained below freezing all day. Even where the sun is hitting them the effect is very limited especially on the pines. The wires have pretty much lost their snow build up. The issue (in my opinion) will be the tree limbs falling and taking the wires down. I think any benchmark used to determine how much ice buildup leads to problems can be disregarded. We are going into a storm that has a 3 to 4 inch buildup on trees before the first flake even falls. Local gas stations are busy with portable gas cans being filled. Smart move in light of the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Question is, would ice accumlate with a temp of 29F. I would think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Some good news is many spots including here have bumped up to just above freezing - I see even low spots like ABE are up to 34....hopefully that plus some sun and hopefully quick insulation with clouds on the increase will keep temps from falling off too quickly tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 2 AM? just getting started at that point right? Note the P-type graphic showing sleet rapidly invading the area at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It only goes out to HR 15. It has 850 temps -2C, NAM/GFS have it go above 0 early on, Warm layer comes in above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Some good news is many spots including here have bumped up to just above freezing - I see even low spots like ABE are up to 34....hopefully that plus some sun and hopefully quick insulation with clouds on the increase will keep temps from falling off too quickly tonight. And melt some of the snow off the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 And melt some of the snow off the trees. Not looking good here. Melt damn you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Look at this, this is for Morristown (12z NAM) Yes, that's 1.03" of ZR. 140205/0700Z 19 06007KT 27.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0140205/0800Z 20 04008KT 27.6F SNPL 2:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.044 3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.05 46| 54| 0140205/0900Z 21 06010KT 27.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.09|| 0.085 3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.09|| 0.13 0| 0|100140205/1000Z 22 06011KT 27.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.070 3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.16|| 0.20 0| 0|100140205/1100Z 23 06010KT 27.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.107 3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.27|| 0.31 0| 0|100140205/1200Z 24 05013KT 28.5F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.15|| 0.146 3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.43|| 0.46 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140205/1300Z 25 02012KT 29.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.170 3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.61|| 0.63 0| 0|100140205/1400Z 26 04012KT 29.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.20|| 0.194 3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.81|| 0.82 0| 0|100140205/1500Z 27 05011KT 30.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.13|| 0.127 3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.94|| 0.95 0| 0|100140205/1600Z 28 05010KT 31.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.069 3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 1.02|| 1.02 0| 0|100140205/1700Z 29 06008KT 31.2F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.011 3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 1.03|| 1.03 0| 0|100140205/1800Z 30 06003KT 31.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 1.03|| 1.03 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Someone mentioned how any more than light wind tonight would add to the problem. What are we expecting exactly wind-wise later tonight and tomorrow morning? One thing about today, it's 35F here with some melting and drippage/droppage of snow from tree branches since about 1 pm, but not the amount you might think. It would have been good to have some wind with these temps this afternoon, it would have shaken a lot more off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 my poor flowering cherry tree out front (see previous page) is going to be in trouble branches fall off it in calm weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Do you guys think your snowpack survives this storm? Our only hope may be that we possibly get dry slotted during the transfer I guess. Sure hope it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Haz, dont call 911 please lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any place that stays mostly ice should have no problem retaining snow pack. Areas near I-95 that warm up will lose some but I think not too much, except areas that got screwed with less than, say, 5" yesterday. Those areas it could get beaten pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ugh...the Lehigh Valley is in an awful spot for this. The last thing we need is an ice storm, with all this snow already weighing down the trees and roads still bad from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Any place that stays mostly ice should have no problem retaining snow pack. Areas near I-95 that warm up will lose some but I think not too much, except areas that got screwed with less than, say, 5" yesterday. Those areas it could get beaten pretty good. I got 5.3" so I guess I'm safe, lol. As long as temps stay in the 30's I think we'll be okay snowpack wise, the snow yesterday was/is pretty dense. We shall see. What would be really nice would be to get a layer of insurance tonight before any changeover. I know it's not going to happen, but yesterday's forecast (with more snow) would have been better for everyone, for more important reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Still lots of snow on the trees here. Its 30F with a high of 35F. I don't think I am going to reach that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 New NAM QPF increases over the LV. Maybe a few inches of snow then we are slidin all over. Will the heavy rates save us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Happily I'm not really in a spot for the ice to occur. Southern Burlington County seems to be safe. The NAM has always seemed to have a higher-precip bias, so I guess the inch of ice isn't very surprising to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM just kills the burbs. Seems like almost all ZR. Even if we don't have 1" of Ice, .5" is really bad as well. 4KM will be telling on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Winter storm warning for 1-2" snow, sleet, 1/4 - 1/2" ice. Quite a difference in snowfall amount than previous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 4KM is wetter for PHL. 1.1" QPF. Has heavy ZR for KDYL with temps at 29F, maybe 30F. Killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 4KM is wetter for PHL. 1.1" QPF. Has heavy ZR for KDYL with temps at 29F, maybe 30F. Killer. I am losing power tonight. I just came from a ride and there are already alot of limbs down while trees are still pasted wih 8" of paste/cement and weighed to the ground. Wont take much more weight ti bring down lots more limbs, branches, and subsequently power lines. Hunkering down for a rough one tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 based on 18Z NAM soundings surface is colder than previous run. Here is hoping high precip rates equates to less ice accrual.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 My high only reached 30f. Got the last 18" chainsaw blade so if anybody needs one try and get it quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Mount Holly really backed off on snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Mount Holly really backed off on snow totals StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png but did you see they bumped up the icing totals somewhat significantly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Mount Holly really backed off on snow totals as expected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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