LVblizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yes, I know it's over a week away, but there's a strong signal on the models for some type of significant event in the middle of next week. The GFS and Euro both show major snowstorms for I-95 N&W, while the CMC shows significant snow before a changeover to ice and rain. The problem with this is that there's very little to no blocking, so this could cut into the lakes just as easily as it could become a snowstorm for most of us. But I feel like the threat is still worth discussing, especially considering our next possible snow event looks like nothing more than another 2-4" deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This is a classic gradient pattern. The PV to the north is providing the blocking a long with the ridge over the southeast. Storms will ride a long the boundary and produce big snows to the north and east of the track. It all comes down to the exact orientation of the gradient, however the GFS has been locked in since day 15 (pretty damn impressive) and the ensembles have looked great since too. The ECMWF latched on yesterday at 12z. We have remarkable model agreement for a day 8+ event and excellent ensemble support from the GEFS and Euro ensembles. Heck even the crappy DGEX has the storm. This particular gradient looks to setup somewhere over the mid-atlantic so northern areas would have the best shot with higher ratios of seeing a major snowfall. The 00z ECMWF was widespread 12"+ with pockets of over 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Good agreement last night for big snow/ice storm. Still a long way to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z gfs is a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 ensembles are more spread out. Still will be a bit before a solution is reached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z gfs is a cutter EVEN with the cutter there is a minor thump, the individual ensembles have some crushing storms... What a signal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 euro washout, thread closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well, it's still a storm and it's still winter, just not the outcome we'd like. However it should provide the impetus to get cold back in the east for the next one. February should provide quite the assembly line of trackable storms as the SE ridge fights the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Oh ye of little faith that give up so quickly. If the ensemble mean shows a Canadian cutter then I'll give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Oh ye of little faith that give up so quickly. If the ensemble mean shows a Canadian cutter then I'll give up. Keep us posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Let's see what this storm looks like on Monday morning. Until then, models will show everything from a big snowstorm to a big rainstorm to partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Keep us posted Ensemble mean is well south of the op. EPS never gets the 850 0c above a line from about Hagerstown MD to Lancaster to Trenton around 180 then sinks back south to right through Philly during the height of the "storm". SLP takes a much weaker low off to the south. Ensemble mean actually if anything ticked south a bit from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I have no scientific expertise to add, but I do want to point out how, in those rare years where it just likes to snow in a particular area (and it has definitely been one of them so far for the immediate I-95 corridor), mother nature tends to keep on finding a way to deliver something. On Saturday, everything pointed toward heavier, steadier snow being well to the north, but most of the area managed to squeeze out 2+". Even tonight, a storm that everybody fully expected to be way out to sea is now looking like it will find a way to deliver an inch or two in the I-95 corridor. I am not saying a cutter is off the table for 2/4-6 for this reason, but, personally, I see this storm somehow, some way delivering for the Philly area again. Enjoy it while you can... this kind of year will almost certainly not repeat again for a while and, if recent history is any indicator, we could easily be in for a couple of <10" seasons as a payback after this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 You mean like the two years prior to this season that were awful? The last five years have been pretty feast or famine around here I will give you that, but hopefully were more in store for the "pay" and not the "back" as they would say in Seinfeld. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Let's see what this storm looks like on Monday morning. Until then, models will show everything from a big snowstorm to a big rainstorm to partly cloudy. I'll bet on the rainstorm based on what happened previously at the end of the cold spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z gfs ensemble looking better also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 0z GFS looks to hit PA with a significant amount of snow 2/5 *crushes us, this run is a keeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 0z GFS looks to hit PA with a significant amount of snow 2/5 "As in" hopefully SE PA and not NW PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Thicknesses are def an issue, still not in love with the 500mb track, I guess it would weaken if the HP is legit, could be one of those total mixed bag storms ala 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 This will probably waffle back and forth until a day or two before the event...models always seem to have trouble with shortwaves ejecting from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks like first stronger short wave helps us out keeps baraclonic zone further south. Too bad it's day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Moisture available for next week is tremendous. If it's snow "katie bar the door!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Moisture available for next week is tremendous. If it's snow "katie bar the door!" A la Herb Clarke...later stolen by JB!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 A la Herb Clarke...later stolen by JB!?! Yes that is a Herb Clarke original Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Save 0z GFS under all-time weenie runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yes that is a Herb Clarke original I credit/thank him for the genesis of my interest in tracking weather!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I credit/thank him for the genesis of my interest in tracking weather!! lol....I spent years watching Herb Clarke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yea. Just a beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Big changes on ECM not likely a cutter this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 ECM went from a loaded cutter at 12Z to a weak wave for richmond next week Dr Nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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