psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Bastardi is ok at the middle range, it is short range and climate timeframes where he is a combination of completely lost, a shameless self-promoter and blinded by his political beliefs. Is the 6th storm overly wet on the euro? All I see is a 1016 low sliding off the coast. I agree just busting his chops a bit. Euro is suppressed for the 6th. Mostly south of dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Daily CFS2 update has the coldest category below normal temps creeping closer to us and wettest AN precip (we are in) expanding around us (not on the edge any more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Basketball talk in a pattern thread is an order of magnitude worse than plane or guitar talk in a banter thread. And especially mediocre local pro team basketball talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 EURO trended slower with the storm...but colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Gfs is the kitchen sink and a lot of it...wow Yep. A lot of rain, freezing rain, sleet and some snow. A lot of qpf. Let's hope it's more snow than all the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 6z GFS Cobb qpf output for Westminster 2/3: .4 snow from 00z to 15z (Sunday night to Monday morning) 2/4 & 2/5: .9 snow from 21z to 18z with more falling after 180hrs Can we lock those in now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 6z GFS Cobb qpf output for Westminster 2/3: .4 snow from 00z to 15z (Sunday night to Monday morning) 2/4 & 2/5: .9 snow from 21z to 18z with more falling after 180hrs Can we lock those in now? would you mind sharing the think where you're getting that output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 6z GFS Cobb qpf output for Westminster 2/3: .4 snow from 00z to 15z (Sunday night to Monday morning) 2/4 & 2/5: .9 snow from 21z to 18z with more falling after 180hrs Can we lock those in now? Are those precip totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 would you mind sharing the think where you're getting that output? http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=w54 You will have to change the station ID to KBWI for you Are those precip totals? QPF amounts yes, I don't pay any attention the snow amounts Cobb lists because the ratios are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Won t be 15:1 or 20:1 ratios. Im out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 EPS members mixed for Monday. About a 3rd show at least 2". Still solid for the midweek system. Ji, the control is not the only one showing some historic totals. Wow. All systems go for a conus cold period starting in the d11-15 range on all guidance. If anything it has trended colder the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 EPS members mixed for Monday. About a 3rd show at least 2". Still solid for the midweek system. Ji, the control is not the only one showing some historic totals. Wow. All systems go for a conus cold period starting in the d11-15 range on all guidance. If anything it has trended colder the last few days. Interestingly, it seems the GEFS have trended wetter (as in not snowier) for next week's events as the Op got snowier. Yesterday was the reverse. Either way, I'm liking where we're sitting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Interestingly, it seems the GEFS have trended wetter (as in not snowier) for next week's events as the Op got snowier. Yesterday was the reverse. Either way, I'm liking where we're sitting right now.Saw that. There is divided support for a wrapped up zr/rn event or a weaker system that stays below us. Throughout the runs it's active as heck and we are mixed between winning and losing but with so many chances...Until we lose the unusual height pattern of se ridging fighting against confluence and the pv to the north, all events have easy fail possibilities. I personally can't remember any instances like this. Usually cold enough air simply isn't available at our latitude with flow like this but the pv can drop cold on top of and behind any system so it keeps the MA in the game. I don't even care about mixes and snow to rain. I just want to add to my totals. Seems like I have a good chance to end the winter in the 20-25" range. If I do, this winter will go down as quite special for all reasons. Heading towards weeks 2-3 looks much more favorable in the temp dept. Hard to say if the gulf and pac stay open for business. Looks like they do but things can change easily I know one thing, Wes isn't going to like presenting this pattern in his articles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Saw that. There is divided support for a wrapped up zr/rn event or a weaker system that stays below us. Throughout the runs it's active as heck and we are mixed between winning and losing but with so many chances... Until we lose the unusual height pattern of se ridging fighting against confluence and the pv to the north, all events have easy fail possibilities. I personally can't remember any instances like this. Usually cold enough air simply isn't available at our latitude with flow like this but the pv can drop cold on top of and behind any system so it keeps the MA in the game. I don't even care about mixes and snow to rain. I just want to add to my totals. Seems like I have a good chance to end the winter in the 20-25" range. If I do, this winter will go down as quite special for all reasons. Heading towards weeks 2-3 looks much more favorable in the temp dept. Hard to say if the gulf and pac stay open for business. Looks like they do but things can change easily I know one thing, Wes isn't going to like presenting this pattern in his articles. used to be a time when average snowfall total in our area was 20-25 in of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Saw that. There is divided support for a wrapped up zr/rn event or a weaker system that stays below us. Throughout the runs it's active as heck and we are mixed between winning and losing but with so many chances... Until we lose the unusual height pattern of se ridging fighting against confluence and the pv to the north, all events have easy fail possibilities. I personally can't remember any instances like this. Usually cold enough air simply isn't available at our latitude with flow like this but the pv can drop cold on top of and behind any system so it keeps the MA in the game. I don't even care about mixes and snow to rain. I just want to add to my totals. Seems like I have a good chance to end the winter in the 20-25" range. If I do, this winter will go down as quite special for all reasons. Heading towards weeks 2-3 looks much more favorable in the temp dept. Hard to say if the gulf and pac stay open for business. Looks like they do but things can change easily I know one thing, Wes isn't going to like presenting this pattern in his articles. I don't envy Wes his task, that's for sure. I think all that can be said is that we're looking to enter a very active period that has potential for a lot of precip and that all precip types are on the table for next week. I think odds are we'll get a storm that's mostly rain and a storm that's mostly snow and probably mixing on the front or back ends of both. used to be a time when average snowfall total in our area was 20-25 in of snow. I think the arithmetic average for Columbia and most of the near-in 'burbs north of 95 is still ~24". But the median over the last 20 years or so is probably closer to 18". Boom or bust as we know. I think this year will be one of those unusual years where we end up above average but not WELL above average like 09-10 or 02-03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 I don't envy Wes his task, that's for sure. I think all that can be said is that we're looking to enter a very active period that has potential for a lot of precip and that all precip types are on the table for next week. I think odds are we'll get a storm that's mostly rain and a storm that's mostly snow and probably mixing on the front or back ends of both. I think the arithmetic average for Columbia and most of the near-in 'burbs north of 95 is still ~24". But the median over the last 20 years or so is probably closer to 18". Boom or bust as we know. I think this year will be one of those unusual years where we end up above average but not WELL above average like 09-10 or 02-03. Probably true, but February can be a wild month. You never know what it might deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Probably true, but February can be a wild month. You never know what it might deliver. We could all be above to well above average in the first 15 days, right where we are now, or somewhere in between. It kinda wants to snow more this year than the last 3 so we have that. Pattern doesn't support a flip to no chances. That's for sure. I'm ready to track the F out of some stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The GFS is a snow weenies dream for the NW burbs. I will take my chances with an active southern stream. It looks like 3 serious waves throughout the run. One of them is bound to time up right with a HP. By far the best model run of the winter IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The GFS is a snow weenies dream for the NW burbs. I will take my chances with an active southern stream. It looks like 3 serious waves throughout the run. One of them is bound to time up right with a HP. By far the best model run of the winter IMO. Being NW giving us greater odds of frozen obviously. Just hoping the bias towards colder hangs around. Maybe we can all cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Cpc analogs didn't seem as suggestive but smaller events like 85' showed up. Chaotic, fast and wavy flow means we are subject to wave behavior determining snow potential. We don't have our usual players that force a snowstorm. So, again, it comes down to last minute details with strong modeling shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Cpc analogs didn't seem as suggestive but smaller events like 85' showed up. Chaotic, fast and wavy flow means we are subject to wave behavior determining snow potential. We don't have our usual players that force a snowstorm. So, again, it comes down to last minute details with strong modeling shifts. the current forecast for next week describes what your talking about perfectly. Weather is not chess, it predictable only to a certain point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Cpc analogs didn't seem as suggestive but smaller events like 85' showed up. Chaotic, fast and wavy flow means we are subject to wave behavior determining snow potential. We don't have our usual players that force a snowstorm. So, again, it comes down to last minute details with strong modeling shifts. It's an unusual pattern. At least it is in my memory. When you look at heights on paper it's a warm look here. But we have an unusually stable cold air source by having the pv firmly locked in central and eastern canada. We might fluke our way to something which defies the pattern in many ways. And if we do score and use these dates as future analogs we'll get false hope. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 the current forecast for next week describes what your talking about perfectly. Weather is not chess, it predictable only to a certain point. Nearly a 7 wave pattern in medium range between China and here. Um...yeah....not winter like at all. We saw this in December too, when things got active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 It's an unusual pattern. At least it is in my memory. When you look at heights on paper it's a warm look here. But we have an unusually stable cold air source by having the pv firmly locked in central and eastern canada. We might fluke our way to something which defies the pattern in many ways. And if we do score and use these dates as future analogs we'll get false hope. lol Lol good point about analogs. While my analog year is currently dominating the cpc last (61-62), I don't think it got active until mid Feb. Still, there's only so far you can go here before analogs become useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Anyone dream the dream with the 6Z 192hr DGEX this morning? If only man...if only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Anyone dream the dream with the 6Z 192hr DGEX this morning? If only man...if only. im taking the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 im taking the under You would make a prolific bettor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 im taking the under BfJfsabIMAACJ3C.jpg I took my eyes off that model in 08 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 DGEX always sniffs out the big ones first #thingssnowweeniessay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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