February Medium/Long Range Disco

[BlizzardNole]

Euro, 2-4" event on 2/6

 

That's my b-day and the day after college football national signing day.

 

It HAS to trend north for us.

[PDIII]

6z GFS also has the two systems next week. Snow chances on Monday and the storm later that week. 

The GFS has been fairly consistent with the Feb 6th time frame.  I heard the euro showed something also.  Give me  foot and then let it get warm.  

[aldie 22]

Gfs is the kitchen sink and a lot of it...wow

[Ji]

looks like GFS is snowier monday but Euro is snowier later in the week and Euro control shows historic snow amounts

[psuhoffman]

Bastardi calling for a warm march

Coldest march in history coming. Got it.

[psuhoffman]

looks like GFS is snowier monday but Euro is snowier later in the week and Euro control shows historic snow amounts

I tried to get you to chill yesterday.

[MN Transplant]

Coldest march in history coming. Got it.

 

Bastardi is ok at the middle range, it is short range and climate timeframes where he is a combination of completely lost, a shameless self-promoter and blinded by his political beliefs.

 

Is the 6th storm overly wet on the euro?  All I see is a 1016 low sliding off the coast.

[psuhoffman]

Bastardi is ok at the middle range, it is short range and climate timeframes where he is a combination of completely lost, a shameless self-promoter and blinded by his political beliefs.

Is the 6th storm overly wet on the euro? All I see is a 1016 low sliding off the coast.

I agree just busting his chops a bit. Euro is suppressed for the 6th. Mostly south of dc.

[mitchnick]

Daily CFS2 update has the coldest category below normal temps creeping closer to us and wettest AN precip (we are in) expanding around us (not on the edge any more)

[needbiggerboat]

Basketball talk in a pattern thread is an order of magnitude worse than plane or guitar talk in a banter thread. And especially mediocre local pro team basketball talk.

[Heisy]

EURO trended slower with the storm...but colder

[SLPressure]

Gfs is the kitchen sink and a lot of it...wow

Yep. A lot of rain, freezing rain, sleet and some snow. A lot of qpf. Let's hope it's more snow than all the rest.

[mappy]

6z GFS Cobb qpf output for Westminster

2/3: .4 snow from 00z to 15z (Sunday night to Monday morning)

2/4 & 2/5: .9 snow from 21z to 18z with more falling after 180hrs

Can we lock those in now?

[snowfan]

6z GFS Cobb qpf output for Westminster

2/3: .4 snow from 00z to 15z (Sunday night to Monday morning)

2/4 & 2/5: .9 snow from 21z to 18z with more falling after 180hrs

Can we lock those in now?

would you mind sharing the think where you're getting that output?

[WinterWxLuvr]

6z GFS Cobb qpf output for Westminster

2/3: .4 snow from 00z to 15z (Sunday night to Monday morning)

2/4 & 2/5: .9 snow from 21z to 18z with more falling after 180hrs

Can we lock those in now?

Are those precip totals?

[mappy]

would you mind sharing the think where you're getting that output?

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=w54

You will have to change the station ID to KBWI for you

  

Are those precip totals?

QPF amounts yes, I don't pay any attention the snow amounts Cobb lists because the ratios are all over the place.

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

Won t be 15:1 or 20:1 ratios. Im out.

[snowfan]

Thanks!

[Bob Chill]

EPS members mixed for Monday. About a 3rd show at least 2". Still solid for the midweek system. Ji, the control is not the only one showing some historic totals. Wow.

All systems go for a conus cold period starting in the d11-15 range on all guidance. If anything it has trended colder the last few days.

[WxUSAF]

EPS members mixed for Monday. About a 3rd show at least 2". Still solid for the midweek system. Ji, the control is not the only one showing some historic totals. Wow.

All systems go for a conus cold period starting in the d11-15 range on all guidance. If anything it has trended colder the last few days.

Interestingly, it seems the GEFS have trended wetter (as in not snowier) for next week's events as the Op got snowier.  Yesterday was the reverse.  Either way, I'm liking where we're sitting right now.    

[Bob Chill]

Interestingly, it seems the GEFS have trended wetter (as in not snowier) for next week's events as the Op got snowier. Yesterday was the reverse. Either way, I'm liking where we're sitting right now.

Saw that. There is divided support for a wrapped up zr/rn event or a weaker system that stays below us. Throughout the runs it's active as heck and we are mixed between winning and losing but with so many chances...

Until we lose the unusual height pattern of se ridging fighting against confluence and the pv to the north, all events have easy fail possibilities. I personally can't remember any instances like this. Usually cold enough air simply isn't available at our latitude with flow like this but the pv can drop cold on top of and behind any system so it keeps the MA in the game.

I don't even care about mixes and snow to rain. I just want to add to my totals. Seems like I have a good chance to end the winter in the 20-25" range. If I do, this winter will go down as quite special for all reasons.

Heading towards weeks 2-3 looks much more favorable in the temp dept. Hard to say if the gulf and pac stay open for business. Looks like they do but things can change easily

I know one thing, Wes isn't going to like presenting this pattern in his articles.

[mdsnowlover]

Saw that. There is divided support for a wrapped up zr/rn event or a weaker system that stays below us. Throughout the runs it's active as heck and we are mixed between winning and losing but with so many chances...

Until we lose the unusual height pattern of se ridging fighting against confluence and the pv to the north, all events have easy fail possibilities. I personally can't remember any instances like this. Usually cold enough air simply isn't available at our latitude with flow like this but the pv can drop cold on top of and behind any system so it keeps the MA in the game.

I don't even care about mixes and snow to rain. I just want to add to my totals. Seems like I have a good chance to end the winter in the 20-25" range. If I do, this winter will go down as quite special for all reasons.

Heading towards weeks 2-3 looks much more favorable in the temp dept. Hard to say if the gulf and pac stay open for business. Looks like they do but things can change easily

I know one thing, Wes isn't going to like presenting this pattern in his articles.

used to be a time when average snowfall total in our area was 20-25 in of snow.

[WxUSAF]

Saw that. There is divided support for a wrapped up zr/rn event or a weaker system that stays below us. Throughout the runs it's active as heck and we are mixed between winning and losing but with so many chances...

Until we lose the unusual height pattern of se ridging fighting against confluence and the pv to the north, all events have easy fail possibilities. I personally can't remember any instances like this. Usually cold enough air simply isn't available at our latitude with flow like this but the pv can drop cold on top of and behind any system so it keeps the MA in the game.

I don't even care about mixes and snow to rain. I just want to add to my totals. Seems like I have a good chance to end the winter in the 20-25" range. If I do, this winter will go down as quite special for all reasons.

Heading towards weeks 2-3 looks much more favorable in the temp dept. Hard to say if the gulf and pac stay open for business. Looks like they do but things can change easily

I know one thing, Wes isn't going to like presenting this pattern in his articles.

I don't envy Wes his task, that's for sure.  I think all that can be said is that we're looking to enter a very active period that has potential for a lot of precip and that all precip types are on the table for next week.  I think odds are we'll get a storm that's mostly rain and a storm that's mostly snow and probably mixing on the front or back ends of both. 

 

used to be a time when average snowfall total in our area was 20-25 in of snow.

I think the arithmetic average for Columbia and most of the near-in 'burbs north of 95 is still ~24".  But the median over the last 20 years or so is probably closer to 18".  Boom or bust as we know.  

 

I think this year will be one of those unusual years where we end up above average but not WELL above average like 09-10 or 02-03.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

I don't envy Wes his task, that's for sure.  I think all that can be said is that we're looking to enter a very active period that has potential for a lot of precip and that all precip types are on the table for next week.  I think odds are we'll get a storm that's mostly rain and a storm that's mostly snow and probably mixing on the front or back ends of both. 

 

I think the arithmetic average for Columbia and most of the near-in 'burbs north of 95 is still ~24".  But the median over the last 20 years or so is probably closer to 18".  Boom or bust as we know.  

 

I think this year will be one of those unusual years where we end up above average but not WELL above average like 09-10 or 02-03.  

Probably true, but February can be a wild month.  You never know what it might deliver.

[Bob Chill]

Probably true, but February can be a wild month.  You never know what it might deliver.

 

We could all be above to well above average in the first 15 days, right where we are now, or somewhere in between. It kinda wants to snow more this year than the last 3 so we have that. Pattern doesn't support a flip to no chances. That's for sure. I'm ready to track the F out of some stuff. 

[clskinsfan]

The GFS is a snow weenies dream for the NW burbs. I will take my chances with an active southern stream. It looks like 3 serious waves throughout the run. One of them is bound to time up right with a HP. By far the best model run of the winter IMO.

[clueless]

The GFS is a snow weenies dream for the NW burbs. I will take my chances with an active southern stream. It looks like 3 serious waves throughout the run. One of them is bound to time up right with a HP. By far the best model run of the winter IMO.

Being NW giving us greater odds of frozen obviously. Just hoping the bias towards colder hangs around. Maybe we can all cash in.

[HM]

Cpc analogs didn't seem as suggestive but smaller events like 85' showed up. Chaotic, fast and wavy flow means we are subject to wave behavior determining snow potential. We don't have our usual players that force a snowstorm. So, again, it comes down to last minute details with strong modeling shifts.

[mdsnowlover]

Cpc analogs didn't seem as suggestive but smaller events like 85' showed up. Chaotic, fast and wavy flow means we are subject to wave behavior determining snow potential. We don't have our usual players that force a snowstorm. So, again, it comes down to last minute details with strong modeling shifts.

the current forecast for next week describes what your talking about perfectly. Weather is not chess, it predictable only to a certain point. 

[Bob Chill]

Cpc analogs didn't seem as suggestive but smaller events like 85' showed up. Chaotic, fast and wavy flow means we are subject to wave behavior determining snow potential. We don't have our usual players that force a snowstorm. So, again, it comes down to last minute details with strong modeling shifts.

 

It's an unusual pattern. At least it is in my memory. When you look at heights on paper it's a warm look here. But we have an unusually stable cold air source by having the pv firmly locked in central and eastern canada. We might fluke our way to something which defies the pattern in many ways.  And if we do score and use these dates as future analogs we'll get false hope. lol