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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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accuwx has the Euro skewts, but they won't be out for a few hours...I'll check them in a few hours and let you know

but on last night's run, it stayed all snow at BWI thru the end of 156 hrs, which was the period ending the heavy snow...but barely

IAD was better, of course

 

yesterday was a little colder

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just checked last night's run for DCA's skewts on the Euro and it also had DCA staying all snow, barely, at the end of 156 hrs, which is when the precip ended

it seems the further west you go, the better you are with this storm temp-wise, more so than usual

 

so no warm nose anywhere from 700-825?...was it close?

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so no warm nose anywhere from 700-825?...was it close?

warmest was at around 825 and yeah, it was close (last night)

I imagine today's run will be similar

but again, I just don't recall ever seeing anything but snow when the thicknesses are at 540 or less....maybe someone else can remember such an event

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The only way I see this really being a big snow threat for I-95 is if the shrotwave ends up being much stronger and we get some closed circulation right off the coast.

 

Once again the EURO has that interesting solution where places down south get a nasty ice storm while it warms up by the time it gets up here. 

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Hey guys, I was on my cell when posting. I don't like the setup at all really, if we (DC, Balt, Philly) somehow get 3+ inches out of this it'll be thread the needle to the max.

 

I am kind of shocked DT is woofing considering where the HP moves off too. 

 

This is the most encouraging news I have heard all month.  I'm in!

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How does this setup compare to Feb 2006? I don't know nearly as much as many of you, but I recall that one being a classic thread-the-needle storm that happened in a crappy pattern.

 

ehh,..that pattern was a quite a bit better than people recall....PNA ridge on steroids...huge diggy 500mb trough....yeah...the surface high was weak....so we needed a good track and major amplification....but the setup was way better than many think

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if we could just get this to work out as or near depicted on the 12Z Euro, I'd be happy to call it a winter and walk away with my average snowfall for the season to give me time to rest for next year's Nino after a cold pool off Nova Scotia as also depicted on some of the models

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