yoda Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If 12z GGEM was right, which we know is a shot in the dark, a decent 2-4 is on the table. Its ~8mm of QPF, falls between 4am and 10am Monday, 850s are decent, and temps are around 30 Didn't the Euro also have a lil something for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Im back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Monday is interesting because the precip runs a strong cold front. There's been a lot of that this year up and down the coast. Euro was close last night to something kinda nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just had to book a trip for Monday morning for work leaving from bwi. That should be sufficient to draw some snow to mess that up. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Monday is interesting because the precip runs a strong cold front. There's been a lot of that this year up and down the coast. Euro was close last night to something kinda nice. Other than the 1/21 event basically all of my snow this season has come from vorts running up a front. Definitely seems to be the theme this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GEFS says calm down weenies. tons of spread. There are some nice solutions where the energy comes out quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I get irrationally mad when the models do not deliver snow, like a crazy part of me thinks they control the weather. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I get irrationally mad when the models do not deliver snow, like a crazy part of me thinks they control the weather. Sent from my iPhone It's mostly our own fault...for treating 144 hour solutions with as much credence as 60 hour solutions...there is no instruction manual for these things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's mostly our own fault...for treating 144 hour solutions with as much credence as 60 hour solutions...there is no instruction manual for these things We used to celebrate getting a storm before truncation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's mostly our own fault...for treating 144 hour solutions with as much credence as 60 hour solutions...there is no instruction manual for these things No doubt . The rational part of me knows it's a nice guide to a range of possibilities and that's all it is, then snow insane part of me wonders why the GFS hates me . I work real hard to keep the snow insane part of me at bay. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I get irrationally mad when the models do not deliver snow, like a crazy part of me thinks they control the weather. Sent from my iPhone Op models useful range varies with patterns. I try to remember this but it's hard. I've gotten much better this year with ensemble guidance this year over years past. In the current pattern, op runs drop to ensemble member accuracy pretty quick. And then add in large spread d4+ and it gets even more muddy. But we want it to snow and model runs showing snow are fun. It's hard not to hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 NAVGEM manages to screw us with every event which seems legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ugly shift in Canada on new GFS with western Canada and NAO-light. yea was just chatting with friends from NYC about this... if the GFS is right about the sudden changes we are in big trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 yea was just chatting with friends from NYC about this... if the GFS is right about the sudden changes we are in big trouble Does the atmosphere often suddenly change or do models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 yea was just chatting with friends from NYC about this... if the GFS is right about the sudden changes we are in big trouble mattie g will be thrilled.... nothing seems to make him happier than 50s and 60s in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro seems fine so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Heavy snow moving in at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Heavy snow moving in at 132 Ur good with stormvista! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 euro is another high QPF snow to mix event for DC, but I am confident it will trend badly for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro seems fine so far About an inch of snow with the Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 about 0.85 for DC...snow to mix....I wonder what the final solution will be...0.10" of rain with a mangled flake is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 about 0.85 for DC...snow to mix....I wonder what the final solution will be...0.10" of rain with a mangled flake is my guess Only has to hold for 5 more runs before we take it serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Only has to hold for 5 more runs before we take it serious I'm pretty sure even as depicted there is a major warm nose above 850mb after the 1st 0.3" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 about 0.85 for DC...snow to mix....I wonder what the final solution will be...0.10" of rain with a mangled flake is my guess It's a good run but I have no confidence. Euro is much faster than the gfs so it outruns the temp suck from the low cruising the n plains. Slow it down and we're literally cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 about 0.85 for DC...snow to mix....I wonder what the final solution will be...0.10" of rain with a mangled flake is my guess It will end up with 0 precip for us, partly cloudy. Euro is on it's lonesome. Don't trust it. At all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It will end up with 0 precip for us, partly cloudy. Euro is on it's lonesome. Don't trust it. At all pretty good model consensus among the globals...Euro has an 18 hour snow to mix event with heavy amounts in the NW burbs and the GFS has 0.00" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Terrible run. Keeps us awake now tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just once I'd like all of you to experience a high qpf sleet event. Many years ago in Iowa we expected to get 18-24" of snow (unheard of for Iowa) instead we got 6" of sleet. For the next several (below freezing days), it was like walking on a beach with very coarse grained sand. Also, THE 1993 storm here, I was able to walk across the drifts without sinking in. Much of that was sleet too. So ... a snow to sleet solution is fine with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 About an inch of snow with the Monday event. I am 100% certain 1 week from now, I will not have seen even 0.1" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just once I'd like all of you to experience a high qpf sleet event. Many years ago in Iowa we expected to get 18-24" of snow (unheard of for Iowa) instead we got 6" of sleet. For the next several (below freezing days), it was like walking on a beach with very coarse grained sand. Also, THE 1993 storm here, I was able to walk across the drifts without sinking in. Much of that was sleet too. So ... a snow to sleet solution is fine with me we've gotten them..last was in 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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