Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 this has been my complaint starting with the winter of 72/73 when BWI had at least 20" modeled w/in 24 hrs and ended up with 1.2" for the entire winter I know the models were relatively new back then, but they haven't improved with "specific" forecasts for our area that much with sensible weather....fook 500mb maps you mean 97-98....unless you had access to some super computer when you were like 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'd be absolutely stunned if I get more than 1" cumulative over the next 2 weeks...shocked.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 how is it possible that we go an entire winter without -NAO. I thought we were in era where -NAO was to become more commonplace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Actaully, they have improved quite a bit since then. I've posted the stats before so I won't again. However, in some patterns there is little precitability. Fast flow with lots of shortwaves is really tough on the models. Put in a block and they are much better. Right now, they are about as bad as they can be because of the pattern. Those who look for deterministic forecasts especially beyond a couple of days are fooling themselves. well, I was unclear as I should have said that much better when predicting snow (just look at the forecasts Sunday for Monday around here) the problem is always that they predict way to much for us, and I don't believe that can be disputed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 LOL the CFS showing much above normal precip and much below normal temps:( This winter is ending with a mighty bad taste...another ****ty DC winter just like Zwyts predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 you mean 97-98....unless you had access to some super computer when you were like 10 no, I mean back then....they had some computers back then I am certain of it I even remember them talking about them when all I had was the NOAA wx radio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Agree. But it runs later. Often I think we believe the GFS had an idea first, and really it just runs MORE and sooner. Keep thrown at the wall and something will stick. If this fails, it will suck. Euro has failed plenty this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 no, I mean back then....they had some computers back then I am certain of it I even remember them talking about them when all I had was the NOAA wx radio I remember for the blizzard of 1899, the models were predicting 30-36" and we only got 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just waiting for leesburg to come in and ask everyone if they've cancelled winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Next winter looks promise so it makes the demise of this winter a bit easier to take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just waiting for leesburg to come in and ask everyone if they've cancelled winter... even though the models in the past 12 hours suggest that's not a bad idea, they are so unreliable, you can't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GGEM had storm last night as did JMA Two stellar models. I'm back on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Watch us finally get a perfect NAO block and gulf low in mid April for two days of heavy rain and 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I think its pretty safe to say finally that Winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I wonder why the models consistently show solutions that are wholly incompatible with their own 500mb forecast pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I think its pretty safe to say finally that Winter is over. This is the last weekend before sun angle season. Actually, if you go outside today and lay on the road in traffic you might feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm ready for several months of historic above average temps. Time to start worrying about summer now. Let's get some epic SE ridging now and get it over with before it occurs during summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 this thread= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is the last weekend before sun angle season. Actually, if you go outside today and lay on the road in traffic you might feel it. that's not fair....do you know how much property damage that could cause to the cars of those unsuspecting, warm weather loving, motorists? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Decent event on the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 CMC took a big step towards the GFS here at 12z for next weeks storm. Not good At least through hour 120 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 In a fair world, the Euro would trend in our direction and improve on its 8-10" thump event...and the GFS would follow....but that never happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Next winter looks promise so it makes the demise of this winter a bit easier to take Super-Nino. 97-98 top analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 how is it possible that we go an entire winter without -NAO. I thought we were in era where -NAO was to become more commonplace A lot of people with "unique" new indices got owned. There's still some time to ease the numbers but yeah...that QBO based -NAO forecast and OPI +AO are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I wonder why the models consistently show solutions that are wholly incompatible with their own 500mb forecast pattern I know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If I win the powerball tomorrow I sending Jay and Jeb off to the Sierra's next winter to experience real winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 In a fair world, the Euro would trend in our direction and improve on its 8-10" thump event...and the GFS would follow....but that never happens it used to be when the euro showed snow for us and the GFS didnt, we were not uncomfortable. Now, whatever model does not show snow is the one that will end up being right...including the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I know... wouldnt chaos involve a somewhat proportionate amount of time that the models trend in our favor and not the current 100:1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Decent event on the 23rd 22-24th pattern looks pretty epic on the 12z GFS actually. Where's Highzenberg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro weeklies are below normal to start march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.