Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 anyone looking at the d16 gfs needs some help. Everyone over 5k posts needs help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I take that back. Below normal starting second week of march. what, did you go to school to be a computer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I take that back. Below normal starting second week of march. thats when March 13,1993 happened. Next season was 93-94 which was suppose to be this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 anyone looking at the d16 gfs needs some help. Anybody who watches models as much as us and says they don't even bother to scroll to 240hr+ is a liar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I take that back. Below normal starting second week of march. Awesome. Now if it's just 15F below normal (and occurs at night), we are in the game for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 let's go to tahoe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 what, did you go to school to be a computer? My computer is currently soaked in gasoline and I'm thinking about firing up my first marlboro in 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 let's go to tahoe gfs_tprecip_cw_63.png they are due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Anybody who watches models as much as us and says they don't even bother to scroll to 240hr+ is a liar. I've actually mostly kicked my obsession with models the last few winters. At least till the shorter range. I'll glance here and there but I waste enough time already.. good to get some of it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Control run of the weeklies looks epic march 3-5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 at least today's discussion has had me remove the barrel from the side of my head and re-holster it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Too many ingredients are needed for DCA to have a meaningful winter and rarely does everything come together. This should be no surprise to anyone and for long-range forecasters if they take the under for DCA every winter they will be right most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 on a bright note, the GGEM loves the monday event. I think Monday will be our last snow event of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 CMC took a big step towards the GFS here at 12z for next weeks storm. Not good At least through hour 120 I believe. The coastal is there still... but just a tad east for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GGEM didnt look that bad for VD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 on a bright note, the GGEM loves the monday event. I think Monday will be our last snow event of the year Decent Monday morning... around .4 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just waiting for leesburg to come in and ask everyone if they've cancelled winter... You mad bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 on a bright note, the GGEM loves the monday event. I think Monday will be our last snow event of the year time for you to mix up a xanax shake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 on a bright note, the GGEM loves the monday event. I think Monday will be our last snow event of the year Good thing you are like always wrong...wait...I mean bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 If 12z GGEM was right, which we know is a shot in the dark, a decent 2-4 is on the table. Its ~8mm of QPF, falls between 4am and 10am Monday, 850s are decent, and temps are around 30 Didn't the Euro also have a lil something for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Im back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Monday is interesting because the precip runs a strong cold front. There's been a lot of that this year up and down the coast. Euro was close last night to something kinda nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Just had to book a trip for Monday morning for work leaving from bwi. That should be sufficient to draw some snow to mess that up. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Monday is interesting because the precip runs a strong cold front. There's been a lot of that this year up and down the coast. Euro was close last night to something kinda nice. Other than the 1/21 event basically all of my snow this season has come from vorts running up a front. Definitely seems to be the theme this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 GEFS says calm down weenies. tons of spread. There are some nice solutions where the energy comes out quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I get irrationally mad when the models do not deliver snow, like a crazy part of me thinks they control the weather. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I get irrationally mad when the models do not deliver snow, like a crazy part of me thinks they control the weather. Sent from my iPhone It's mostly our own fault...for treating 144 hour solutions with as much credence as 60 hour solutions...there is no instruction manual for these things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's mostly our own fault...for treating 144 hour solutions with as much credence as 60 hour solutions...there is no instruction manual for these things We used to celebrate getting a storm before truncation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's mostly our own fault...for treating 144 hour solutions with as much credence as 60 hour solutions...there is no instruction manual for these things No doubt . The rational part of me knows it's a nice guide to a range of possibilities and that's all it is, then snow insane part of me wonders why the GFS hates me . I work real hard to keep the snow insane part of me at bay. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I get irrationally mad when the models do not deliver snow, like a crazy part of me thinks they control the weather. Sent from my iPhone Op models useful range varies with patterns. I try to remember this but it's hard. I've gotten much better this year with ensemble guidance this year over years past. In the current pattern, op runs drop to ensemble member accuracy pretty quick. And then add in large spread d4+ and it gets even more muddy. But we want it to snow and model runs showing snow are fun. It's hard not to hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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