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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Anybody who watches models as much as us and says they don't even bother to scroll to 240hr+ is a liar. :P

I've actually mostly kicked my obsession with models the last few winters.  At least till the shorter range. I'll glance here and there but I waste enough time already.. good to get some of it back. 

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Monday is interesting because the precip runs a strong cold front. There's been a lot of that this year up and down the coast. 

 

Euro was close last night to something kinda nice. 

 

Other than the 1/21 event basically all of my snow this season has come from vorts running up a front. Definitely seems to be the theme this year.

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I get irrationally mad when the models do not deliver snow, like a crazy part of me thinks they control the weather.

Sent from my iPhone

 

It's mostly our own fault...for treating 144 hour solutions with as much credence as 60 hour solutions...there is no instruction manual for these things

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It's mostly our own fault...for treating 144 hour solutions with as much credence as 60 hour solutions...there is no instruction manual for these things

No doubt . The rational part of me knows it's a nice guide to a range of possibilities and that's all it is, then snow insane part of me wonders why the GFS hates me . I work real hard to keep the snow insane part of me at bay.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I get irrationally mad when the models do not deliver snow, like a crazy part of me thinks they control the weather.

Sent from my iPhone

 

Op models useful range varies with patterns. I try to remember this but it's hard. I've gotten much better this year with ensemble guidance this year over years past. 

 

In the current pattern, op runs drop to ensemble member accuracy pretty quick. And then add in large spread d4+ and it gets even more muddy. But we want it to snow and model runs showing snow are fun. It's hard not to hope. 

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