mattie g Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm actually liking the PD timeframe. Think Archambault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I've recalibrated my goal, and I want to get through February with no accumulating snow...I think I have a 60% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm actually liking the PD timeframe. Think Archambault. The Archimbault event would be this wednesday-thursday...well before PD3, we have no real bloking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I've recalibrated my goal, and I want to get through February with no accumulating snow...I think I have a 60% chance It doesn't snow anymore in Feb unless there is a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ugly shift in Canada on new GFS with western Canada and NAO-light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ugly shift in Canada on new GFS with western Canada and NAO-light. unfortunately for us, the operational models have extremely limited skill outside 72 hours when there is a meaningful northern stream, and have a HUGE bias toward giving us snow and then taking it away...which is what has made our lives so frustrating the last few winters..for every time a solution trends in our favor as we get inside 3 days, there are a 1000 times it trends against us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ugly shift in Canada on new GFS with western Canada and NAO-light. It's a debacle. Our Epic February is turning into an epic debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's a debacle. Our Epic February is turning into an epic debacle. I think it is time to accept that operation models have no value with any forecast snow event outside 72 hours for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's a debacle. Our Epic February is turning into an epic debacle. It's also the GFS. If the EC comes on board, well.. you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 unfortunately for us, the operational models have extremely limited skill outside 72 hours when there is a meaningful northern stream, and have a HUGE bias toward giving us snow and then taking it away...which is what has made our lives so frustrating the last few winters..for every time a solution trends in our favor as we get inside 3 days, there are a 1000 times it trends against us... We'll see how ensemble mean trends look with this pv that gets displaced from actual north pole. Today, GFS says it drops into Hudson Bay! Ugh...it ruins the hybrid west NAO. So, huge changes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 992 Low over MN. Yea, that'll promptly kill our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's also the GFS. If the EC comes on board, well.. you know. nope..the models are terrible outside 72 hours and are not meant to be used how we use them...models are completely incongruous with how much snow DC gets and how much they forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's a debacle. Our Epic February is turning into an epic debacle. Epic? Lol .... the cold is impressive sure, but things were overblown by the usual suspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's also the GFS. If the EC comes on board, well.. you know.Euro has failed plenty this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 We'll see how ensemble mean trends look with this pv that gets displaced from actual north pole. Today, GFS says it drops into Hudson Bay! Ugh...it ruins the hybrid west NAO. So, huge changes... outside of a Nino it is hard to snow in DC metro......for whatever reason, we almost never have a scenario where models trend toward snow..always the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro has failed plenty this winter and it will fail miserably with the mid week event and probably the Monday event...Hopefully it shows a warm, ineffectual southeast solution for Wednesday since we that solution is an inevitable lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro has failed plenty this winter Yes it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 outside of a Nino it is hard to snow in DC metro......for whatever reason, we almost never have a scenario where models trend toward snow..always the opposite But stepping back to NH picture...if this PV is going to do this, expect massive model shifts to warm next week. After your data and that article Ian posted, I believe you guys with snow in dc, especially lower end events. It is terrible how the climate shifted in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 and it will fail miserably with the mid week event and probably the Monday event...Hopefully it shows a warm, ineffectual southeast solution for Wednesday since we that solution is an inevitable lock maybe the euro can be the euro once this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The Euro has been useless this winter for us. I have no confidence in it outside of 84 hours...it's the only one with a snowstorm and that'll change in about 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The Euro has been useless this winter for us. I have no confidence in it outside of 84 hours...it's the only one with a snowstorm and that'll change in about 2 hours. GGEM had storm last night as did JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 So, checklist so far this month: Monday event, Feb. 3: looked promising, 33 and rain Wednesday event, Feb. 5: rain and 40, but at least some interesting ice to start Unicorn event Feb. 8-10: fizzled with no phasing, maybe we'll score an inch or two Mid-week event next week, Feb. 12-13: looking meh, maybe even borderline too warm? Next on the list of futility: Pee-Dee-Three? (c'mon, you know we'll get sucked in!) OK, I'm being very sarcastic here. My expecations weren't outrageous with thinking we'd get a KU storm or something. But I sure thought it looked good for scoring a decent event or two during the first 20 days of this month, maybe something similar to Jan. 21 area-wide at some point. We still could, however even holding expectations in check somewhat, it sure seems like opportunities lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 maybe the euro can be the euro once this season Lol, definitely. Outside of this past Monday, it hasn't been the best with details for east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 nope..the models are terrible outside 72 hours and are not meant to be used how we use them...models are completely incongruous with how much snow DC gets and how much they forecast.... this has been my complaint starting with the winter of 72/73 when BWI had at least 20" modeled w/in 24 hrs and ended up with 1.2" for the entire winter I know the models were relatively new back then, but they haven't improved with "specific" forecasts for our area that much with sensible weather....fook 500mb maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The GFS did advertise a couple of warm signals that didn't pan out this winter, including GEFS. So, let's see how rest of data looks before diagnosing this as any real shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Lol, definitely. Outside of this past Monday, it hasn't been the best with details for east coast storms. it did fine with the Wednesday storm that slammed NE beginning 5 days out that is what really irks me....it's a lot closer to being right in NE when it shows a storm 5 days or less than when it shows a storm for us 5 days or less, I can guarantee that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The GFS did advertise a couple of warm signals that didn't pan out this winter, including GEFS. So, let's see how rest of data looks before diagnosing this as any real shift. there wasnt really anything in the ensembles that showed next week would be warm. I guess, as always we wait till 12:45pm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 this has been my complaint starting with the winter of 72/73 when BWI had at least 20" modeled w/in 24 hrs and ended up with 1.2" for the entire winter I know the models were relatively new back then, but they haven't improved with "specific" forecasts for our area that much with sensible weather....fook 500mb maps Actaully, they have improved quite a bit since then. I've posted the stats before so I won't again. However, in some patterns there is little precitability. Fast flow with lots of shortwaves is really tough on the models. Put in a block and they are much better. Right now, they are about as bad as they can be because of the pattern. Those who look for deterministic forecasts especially beyond a couple of days are fooling themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 But stepping back to NH picture...if this PV is going to do this, expect massive model shifts to warm next week. After your data and that article Ian posted, I believe you guys with snow in dc, especially lower end events. It is terrible how the climate shifted in that regard. warm sounds reasonable...a number of analogs had 50's and 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 there wasnt really anything in the ensembles that showed next week would be warm. I guess, as always we wait till 12:45pm lol I just checked the 6z gefs members. A lot of them show that big low to the north screwing everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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