Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm shoving all my chips in the middle on what the 6z GFS is showing for 240h. Lock it down. (Am I doing this right?) thats not going to work out either. The euro is an outlier and probably wrong. Even the Euro Control is weaker than the OP. Im out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 ya this probably wont work out. I expected the euro to lose the big event last night and it kept it but it will fall apart at some point today Ok...lets go Christmas light shopping...the deals should be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Coldest spring ever....golf courses soggy...so much for that extra 100 yds on your drive due to role bro You make me sad, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 we had a decent stretch but this winter is starting to read its ugly head in suckness...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 we had a decent stretch but this winter is starting to read its ugly head in suckness...... Check out the 0z EPS temp anoms at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Check out the 0z EPS temp anoms at the end of the run yep...were going to blowtorch end of Feb. Luckily I am going to Orlando for work so i dont care what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 we better score in the next 10 days...there is actual decent blocking showing up in Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 yep...were going to blowtorch end of Feb. Luckily I am going to Orlando for work so i dont care what happens EPS went from it's coldest to warmest looks this month in back to back runs. We'll prob get a -40sd nao and Orlando will be 33 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 EPS does have a pretty good signal for PD3.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 EPS does have a pretty good signal for PD3.... Does your neck hurt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Have you ever seen that television show called Finding Bigfoot? I've never seen it but I can guarentee you they have NEVER found Bigfoot. Relating this to PDIII possible scenario........It ain't happening either. Yeah, of course I watch that dung (look at my avatar). I give some credence to the GFS PD3 only because it crushes Philly (2.0" QPF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm not out on snow chances but I just don't buy any specific threat right now. I think something will develop within 48 hours of the event that we didnt see coming from 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 A little off topic, but how often does remnants of the Pineapple Express affect the Eastern United States? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Why are you so bitter Shouldn't you be asking Ji and Matt that question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Desperation time.....84 hour nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 A little off topic, but how often does remnants of the Pineapple Express affect the Eastern United States? Those scenarios are most common with Nino years. Basically a train of moisture from Hawaii to the SW conus and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Desperation time.....84 hour nam Euro has trended this one. We'll see how it goes today but 3 improved runs at relatively short leads isn't a bad thing. EPS has precip in our area but looks like most members keep it south. Right where we want it attm. I think I'm going to go on a weenieism spree this weekend. I've been working on some new material too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Those scenarios are most common with Nino years. Basically a train of moisture from Hawaii to the SW conus and beyond. It looked to me like the 6Z GFS run showed the Pacific waves interacting with the East coast for the Wednesday-Thursday storm possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It looked to me like the 6Z GFS run showed the Pacific waves interacting with the East coast for the Wednesday-Thursday storm possibility. Not a pineapple express. That's just pac energy rolling over the top of a ridge. Run your north pac 700rh loops. Pineapple express is associated with a strong sub tropical jet extending back from hawaii. This is an extreme example but it shows it clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It looked to me like the 6Z GFS run showed the Pacific waves interacting with the East coast for the Wednesday-Thursday storm possibility. Look out! Weatherunground gives me Wednesday night and Thursday snow love with 3-5 and another 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Look out! Weatherunground gives me Wednesday night and Thursday snow love with 3-5 and another 1-3. FWIW wunderground gave me 5-8 on the Monday rain event. They are really bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 yep...were going to blowtorch end of Feb. Luckily I am going to Orlando for work so i dont care what happens Translation: yep...were going to blowtorch end of Feb. I am going to Orlando for work, and I hope we do blowtorch so I don't miss a snowstorm while in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Not a pineapple express. That's just pac energy rolling over the top of a ridge. Run your north pac 700rh loops. Pineapple express is associated with a strong sub tropical jet extending back from hawaii. This is an extreme example but it shows it clearly. WV NOAM.gif The CIMSS infrared loop is what caught my attention. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=eastpac∏=irbbm&sat=g9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 FWIW wunderground gave me 5-8 on the Monday rain event. They are really bullish Not bullish, more like bull s! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro has trended this one. We'll see how it goes today but 3 improved runs at relatively short leads isn't a bad thing. EPS has precip in our area but looks like most members keep it south. Right where we want it attm. I think I'm going to go on a weenieism spree this weekend. I've been working on some new material too. Does the GFS just not have this system at all or is it the one waiting until 114? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The CIMSS infrared loop is what caught my attention. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=eastpac∏=irbbm&sat=g9 It's a pac moisture feed for sure. Not sure I would call it a pineapple express. Typically there is a blocking hp in the gulf of alaska during a nina pattern when the term is used. I suppose it's muddy in between. I see where you are going with this but I wouldn't call it a pineapple express at all. Still a moist pac flow that will keep the conus pretty active. The moisture laden systems we may see going forward will get most of their moisture from the gulf but the spark that ignites it the pac energy rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's a pac moisture feed for sure. Not sure I would call it a pineapple express. Typically there is a blocking hp in the gulf of alaska during a nina pattern when the term is used. I suppose it's muddy in between. I see where you are going with this but I wouldn't call it a pineapple express at all. Still a moist pac flow that will keep the conus pretty active. The moisture laden systems we may see going forward will get most of their moisture from the gulf but the spark that ignites it the pac energy rolling in. pxpress.JPG Cantore and Jeff masters were all over it, haha. I didn't realize they typically come with Ninas, good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Cantore and Jeff masters were all over it, haha. I didn't realize they typically come with Ninas, good stuff! I'm not versed enough to say one way or the other with the current pattern. Moisture is streaming from HI nw into the pac nw. I suppose if it's the source region that defines the term then this would qualify. For us, the p express in a nino with a block is the best setup you can ask for. 09/10 was special on so many levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm not versed enough to say one way or the other with the current pattern. Moisture is streaming from HI nw into the pac nw. I suppose if it's the source region that defines the term then this would qualify. For us, the p express in a nino with a block is the best setup you can ask for. 09/10 was special on so many levels. It's odd how the wiki page case studies seem to have occurred near the end of that Nino I think? The page didn't really choose the best diagrams. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pineapple_Express#Extreme_cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I wan't to punch that ns vort/gl low in the face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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