Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 pretty nasty ice storm for the usual favored spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 pretty nasty ice storm for the usual favored spots is there a storm behind the cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 is there a storm behind the cutter? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 yes what is that one? Weatherbell out to 204 only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 what is that one? Weatherbell out to 204 only looks like cold air available after the cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 yes Thank goodness. By then, Myrtle Beach will need to refresh their snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 what is that one? Weatherbell out to 204 only precip is to Richmond at 240...could slide out to sea strong high pressure...I get pissed when a storm at 372 hours slides OTS...I consider 234 to be the same as 48 hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 One thing about the euro op run is it really digs the midweek vort into mexico. Everything gets all amped up right over TX. Could be right but the euro likes doing that and then backs off in medium-short leads. It's definitely a messy storm type pattern if it's even close to as strong as the euro/gfs just showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 One thing about the euro op run is it really digs the midweek vort into mexico. Everything gets all amped up right over TX. Could be right but the euro likes doing that and then backs off in medium-short leads. It's definitely a messy storm type pattern if it's even close to as strong as the euro/gfs just showed. it looks like the cutter hits a wall and redevelops...anyway...there is plenty of time to get a worse solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 yes That looks more interesting but it's so far out there who knows. The icy look earlier is pretty much what this pattern offers unless we can keep the northern vortex a little farther east without it getting pulled back west when the next strong system drops southward out of canada. Should be lots of cold air so lots of chances for winter wx in the form of ice or snow or some combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That looks more interesting but it's so far out there who knows. The icy look earlier is pretty much what this pattern offers unless we can keep the northern vortex a little farther east without it getting pulled back west when the next strong system drops southward out of canada. Should be lots of cold air so lots of chances for winter wx in the form of ice or snow or some combo. you/CWG will have some tricky forecasts coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 you/CWG will have some tricky forecasts coming up We will, I'll be doing an outlook tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro ensebles are favoring a west track. I know there's going to be snowy solutions but you can see it on the 850 mean temp plots. There's a ton of spread next week as a whole with timing and events. A lot of shortwaves and a lot of solutions. Makes it fun. Definite d10 signal and plenty of precip after that. Doesn't look like temps will be a problem based on both GEFS and EPS. EPS mean over d11-15 is about 1" of liquid. Looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro ensebles are favoring a west track. I know there's going to be snowy solutions but you can see it on the 850 mean temp plots. There's a ton of spread next week as a whole with timing and events. A lot of shortwaves and a lot of solutions. Makes it fun. Definite d10 signal and plenty of precip after that. Doesn't look like temps will be a problem based on both GEFS and EPS. EPS mean over d11-15 is about 1" of liquid. Looking good so far. I guess there are different ways to interpret the ensembles but from what I saw they actually trended south a bit from the 0z EPS, not from the op euro of course. Never gets the 0c 850 north of a line from HGR to LNS to TTN. Thats a bit south of where the 0z EPS got the 850s during the height of the storm last night. Also takes the SLP a bit further south compared to 0z and a bit weaker. without individual members its hard to say how it gets to that mean though. Those wont be out until later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The HP is the big factor in the weekend event. And who knows where that will be by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I guess there are different ways to interpret the ensembles but from what I saw they actually trended south a bit from the 0z EPS, not from the op euro of course. Never gets the 0c 850 north of a line from HGR to LNS to TTN. Thats a bit south of where the 0z EPS got the 850s during the height of the storm last night. Also takes the SLP a bit further south compared to 0z and a bit weaker. without individual members its hard to say how it gets to that mean though. Those wont be out until later. Yea, to be honest with precip spreading over so many panels I couldn't totally tell what direction they went in compared to 0z. Looked worse to me but that was probably more opinion than analysis. I just gave them a once over. Last nights members were basically unanimous with some snow on the front end at least. Pretty strong on the means. I also expect some of the ind member "snow" to be ice in reality. Wxbell algorithms suck with marginal 850's and cad. Long ways to go. I'm going to root for a weaker and pos tilt vort until the MS river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The HP is the big factor in the weekend event. And who knows where that will be by then. No doubt and pv placement. We need confluence and that's totally in the cards. I'll post thoughts on every ensemble run because it's what I do. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yea, to be honest with precip spreading over so many panels I couldn't totally tell what direction they went in compared to 0z. Looked worse to me but that was probably more opinion than analysis. I just gave them a once over. Last nights members were basically unanimous with some snow on the front end at least. Pretty strong on the means. I also expect some of the ind member "snow" to be ice in reality. Wxbell algorithms suck with marginal 850's and cad. Long ways to go. I'm going to root for a weaker and pos tilt vort until the MS river. Do you actually have access to each individual EPS member? I only can see the EPS mean and then the meteograms for major cities. If you can actually see individual members that is cool and where do you get them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Do you actually have access to each individual EPS member? I only can see the EPS mean and then the meteograms for major cities. If you can actually see individual members that is cool and where do you get them? Just for precip output including snow algorithm stuff for metar locations. It's on wxbell. One of my favorite charts but since wxbell uses a flawed snow algorithm when temps are marginal at the surface or mid levels, using them verbatim causes unrealistic expectations. Cold storms are one thing. Next week's has all kinds of edges I'm sure. ETA: 12z just came in and man, the ensembles are snowy again. 26 members show over 6" in d8-10 in KGAI. DCA isn't out yet. Only 3 show less than an inch. All kinda of timing though. Solutions are spread through the 3 day period. Some show multiple events. I would say nothing is resolved at all attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Mobile and can't check the run, I guess happy hour not near as happy tonight? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 The storm being shown on the GFS for next Wed has a chance to be fun. Don't know what the euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The storm being shown on the GFS for next Wed has a chance to be fun. Don't know what the euro showed. Something similar overall. Looking like a front end deal unless we can get some confluence and keep the whole mess underneath us. I'll take anything that adds to my seasonal and be happy. Climo or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Something similar overall. Looking like a front end deal unless we can get some confluence and keep the whole mess underneath us. I'll take anything that adds to my seasonal and be happy. Climo or bust. Its sort of an odd evolution. I think its funny how it just turns to crayon after truncation and looks like we get pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Gfs says rain.... Cold and dry and then rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Gfs says rain.... Cold and dry and then rain like I said the other day, one way for the CFS2 FEB forecast to be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Gfs says rain.... Cold and dry and then rainGfs gives you 3-5" then nasty ice next week. The weekend is a cutter give that up. We have 3 shots after that in my opinion. Feb 4-6. 9-11 and 14-16. All 3 will have gulf and stj moisture so we don't need a bombing low. We need a less amped solution that slides east under a high. I'm banking on less amped due to seasonal trends. Things have been progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I give props to PSU for trying to rationalize with the irrational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I give props to PSU for trying to rationalize with the irrational Now you know how a psychiatrist in a psych ward feels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 surprised none of you's mentioned the GFS @ 129-132 starting period.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 surprised none of you's mentioned the GFS @ 129-132 starting period.... Why would we care about 2-4" when we're getting heavy dusted right now. Maybe the euro was smart last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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