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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Yea, best case. It's awful cold leading in. Gfs supports temps but wide right of course. If a shield like depicted on this run blasts into a dome like that then I'll take my chances all day long. If the front edge is weak we waste our prime colum with light precip and then heavy sleet/zr.

I like the speed and intensity. There plenty of support with gefs/eps. Nothing we can do except sweat. It's a great run regardless of where we end up.

Further east track and lighter precip is in the cards. We'll see. Total phail is always in the cards too

 

1st call

 

Whatever you got on 1/2-3

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6z GFS OP run leaves all the moisture to the south with mid-week - but nice to see that much moisture in the carolinas. Maybe they get a prolonged multi-day snow while we get nothing, but I don't think it would take much change in how the op run evolves to get some of that moisture up to our area. 

 

It does toss out a PDIII fantasy storm that is really nice fantasy eye candy. 

 

ETA: Really REALLY nice fantasy eye candy.

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Gfs is definitely the new dr no....and its also usually correct

i don't like the fact that the euro has trended towards the gfs evolution of the storm. It's still a good solution as is but in the bigger picture it had a weaker system and trended southeast. When the model with a tendency to over phase or amp is the only one amped enough and is trending weaker it makes me think the gfs is more likely. There is just too much going on and vorts are moving too fast to get anything to phase.
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Yeah, I saw that PD3 too. I'd gladly forgo all these possible waves and southsliders in the next week to lock that up.

Have you ever seen that television show called Finding Bigfoot? I've never seen it but I can guarentee you they have NEVER found Bigfoot. Relating this to PDIII possible scenario........It ain't happening either.

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i don't like the fact that the euro has trended towards the gfs evolution of the storm. It's still a good solution as is but in the bigger picture it had a weaker system and trended southeast. When the model with a tendency to over phase or amp is the only one amped enough and is trending weaker it makes me think the gfs is more likely. There is just too much going on and vorts are moving too fast to get anything to phase.

You out bro?

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