Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,859
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Malkir008
    Newest Member
    Malkir008
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Desperation time.....84 hour nam :whistle:

Euro has trended this one. We'll see how it goes today but 3 improved runs at relatively short leads isn't a bad thing. EPS has precip in our area but looks like most members keep it south. Right where we want it attm. I think I'm going to go on a weenieism spree this weekend. I've been working on some new material too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Those scenarios are most common with Nino years. Basically a train of moisture from Hawaii to the SW conus and beyond.

It looked to me like the 6Z GFS run showed the Pacific waves interacting with the East coast for the Wednesday-Thursday storm possibility.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looked to me like the 6Z GFS run showed the Pacific waves interacting with the East coast for the Wednesday-Thursday storm possibility.

 
Not a pineapple express. That's just pac energy rolling over the top of a ridge. Run your north pac 700rh loops. 
 
Pineapple express is associated with a strong sub tropical jet extending back from hawaii. This is an extreme example but it shows it clearly. 
 
post-2035-0-62501600-1391785865_thumb.gi
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 
Not a pineapple express. That's just pac energy rolling over the top of a ridge. Run your north pac 700rh loops. 
 
Pineapple express is associated with a strong sub tropical jet extending back from hawaii. This is an extreme example but it shows it clearly. 
 

 

The CIMSS infrared loop is what caught my attention. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=eastpac∏=irbbm&sat=g9

xxirg9bbm.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro has trended this one. We'll see how it goes today but 3 improved runs at relatively short leads isn't a bad thing. EPS has precip in our area but looks like most members keep it south. Right where we want it attm. I think I'm going to go on a weenieism spree this weekend. I've been working on some new material too.

Does the GFS just not have this system at all or is it the one waiting until 114?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The CIMSS infrared loop is what caught my attention. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=eastpac∏=irbbm&sat=g9

 

 

 

It's a pac moisture feed for sure. Not sure I would call it a pineapple express. Typically there is a blocking hp in the gulf of alaska during a nina pattern when the term is used. I suppose it's muddy in between. I see where you are going with this but I wouldn't call it a pineapple express at all. Still a moist pac flow that will keep the conus pretty active. The moisture laden systems we may see going forward will get most of their moisture from the gulf but the spark that ignites it the pac energy rolling in. 

 

post-2035-0-47336000-1391788067_thumb.jp

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a pac moisture feed for sure. Not sure I would call it a pineapple express. Typically there is a blocking hp in the gulf of alaska during a nina pattern when the term is used. I suppose it's muddy in between. I see where you are going with this but I wouldn't call it a pineapple express at all. Still a moist pac flow that will keep the conus pretty active. The moisture laden systems we may see going forward will get most of their moisture from the gulf but the spark that ignites it the pac energy rolling in. 

 

attachicon.gifpxpress.JPG

Cantore and Jeff masters were all over it, haha. I didn't realize they typically come with Ninas, good stuff!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cantore and Jeff masters were all over it, haha. I didn't realize they typically come with Ninas, good stuff!

 

I'm not versed enough to say one way or the other with the current pattern. Moisture is streaming from HI nw into the pac nw. I suppose if it's the source region that defines the term then this would qualify. For us, the p express in a nino with a block is the best setup you can ask for. 09/10 was special on so many levels. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not versed enough to say one way or the other with the current pattern. Moisture is streaming from HI nw into the pac nw. I suppose if it's the source region that defines the term then this would qualify. For us, the p express in a nino with a block is the best setup you can ask for. 09/10 was special on so many levels. 

It's odd how the wiki page case studies seem to have occurred near the end of that Nino I think? The page didn't really choose the best diagrams. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pineapple_Express#Extreme_cases

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ugly shift in Canada on new GFS with western Canada and NAO-light. :(

 

unfortunately for us, the operational models have extremely limited skill outside 72 hours when there is a meaningful northern stream, and have a HUGE bias toward giving us snow and then taking it away...which is what has made our lives so frustrating the last few winters..for every time a solution trends in our favor as we get inside 3 days, there are a 1000 times it trends against us...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

unfortunately for us, the operational models have extremely limited skill outside 72 hours when there is a meaningful northern stream, and have a HUGE bias toward giving us snow and then taking it away...which is what has made our lives so frustrating the last few winters..for every time a solution trends in our favor as we get inside 3 days, there are a 1000 times it trends against us...

We'll see how ensemble mean trends look with this pv that gets displaced from actual north pole. Today, GFS says it drops into Hudson Bay! Ugh...it ruins the hybrid west NAO. So, huge changes...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...