psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm not out on snow chances but I just don't buy any specific threat right now. I think something will develop within 48 hours of the event that we didnt see coming from 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 A little off topic, but how often does remnants of the Pineapple Express affect the Eastern United States? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Why are you so bitter Shouldn't you be asking Ji and Matt that question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Desperation time.....84 hour nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 A little off topic, but how often does remnants of the Pineapple Express affect the Eastern United States? Those scenarios are most common with Nino years. Basically a train of moisture from Hawaii to the SW conus and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Desperation time.....84 hour nam Euro has trended this one. We'll see how it goes today but 3 improved runs at relatively short leads isn't a bad thing. EPS has precip in our area but looks like most members keep it south. Right where we want it attm. I think I'm going to go on a weenieism spree this weekend. I've been working on some new material too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Those scenarios are most common with Nino years. Basically a train of moisture from Hawaii to the SW conus and beyond. It looked to me like the 6Z GFS run showed the Pacific waves interacting with the East coast for the Wednesday-Thursday storm possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It looked to me like the 6Z GFS run showed the Pacific waves interacting with the East coast for the Wednesday-Thursday storm possibility. Not a pineapple express. That's just pac energy rolling over the top of a ridge. Run your north pac 700rh loops. Pineapple express is associated with a strong sub tropical jet extending back from hawaii. This is an extreme example but it shows it clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It looked to me like the 6Z GFS run showed the Pacific waves interacting with the East coast for the Wednesday-Thursday storm possibility. Look out! Weatherunground gives me Wednesday night and Thursday snow love with 3-5 and another 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Look out! Weatherunground gives me Wednesday night and Thursday snow love with 3-5 and another 1-3. FWIW wunderground gave me 5-8 on the Monday rain event. They are really bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 yep...were going to blowtorch end of Feb. Luckily I am going to Orlando for work so i dont care what happens Translation: yep...were going to blowtorch end of Feb. I am going to Orlando for work, and I hope we do blowtorch so I don't miss a snowstorm while in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Not a pineapple express. That's just pac energy rolling over the top of a ridge. Run your north pac 700rh loops. Pineapple express is associated with a strong sub tropical jet extending back from hawaii. This is an extreme example but it shows it clearly. WV NOAM.gif The CIMSS infrared loop is what caught my attention. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=eastpac∏=irbbm&sat=g9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 FWIW wunderground gave me 5-8 on the Monday rain event. They are really bullish Not bullish, more like bull s! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Euro has trended this one. We'll see how it goes today but 3 improved runs at relatively short leads isn't a bad thing. EPS has precip in our area but looks like most members keep it south. Right where we want it attm. I think I'm going to go on a weenieism spree this weekend. I've been working on some new material too. Does the GFS just not have this system at all or is it the one waiting until 114? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The CIMSS infrared loop is what caught my attention. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=eastpac∏=irbbm&sat=g9 It's a pac moisture feed for sure. Not sure I would call it a pineapple express. Typically there is a blocking hp in the gulf of alaska during a nina pattern when the term is used. I suppose it's muddy in between. I see where you are going with this but I wouldn't call it a pineapple express at all. Still a moist pac flow that will keep the conus pretty active. The moisture laden systems we may see going forward will get most of their moisture from the gulf but the spark that ignites it the pac energy rolling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's a pac moisture feed for sure. Not sure I would call it a pineapple express. Typically there is a blocking hp in the gulf of alaska during a nina pattern when the term is used. I suppose it's muddy in between. I see where you are going with this but I wouldn't call it a pineapple express at all. Still a moist pac flow that will keep the conus pretty active. The moisture laden systems we may see going forward will get most of their moisture from the gulf but the spark that ignites it the pac energy rolling in. pxpress.JPG Cantore and Jeff masters were all over it, haha. I didn't realize they typically come with Ninas, good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Cantore and Jeff masters were all over it, haha. I didn't realize they typically come with Ninas, good stuff! I'm not versed enough to say one way or the other with the current pattern. Moisture is streaming from HI nw into the pac nw. I suppose if it's the source region that defines the term then this would qualify. For us, the p express in a nino with a block is the best setup you can ask for. 09/10 was special on so many levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm not versed enough to say one way or the other with the current pattern. Moisture is streaming from HI nw into the pac nw. I suppose if it's the source region that defines the term then this would qualify. For us, the p express in a nino with a block is the best setup you can ask for. 09/10 was special on so many levels. It's odd how the wiki page case studies seem to have occurred near the end of that Nino I think? The page didn't really choose the best diagrams. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pineapple_Express#Extreme_cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I wan't to punch that ns vort/gl low in the face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm actually liking the PD timeframe. Think Archambault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I've recalibrated my goal, and I want to get through February with no accumulating snow...I think I have a 60% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I'm actually liking the PD timeframe. Think Archambault. The Archimbault event would be this wednesday-thursday...well before PD3, we have no real bloking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I've recalibrated my goal, and I want to get through February with no accumulating snow...I think I have a 60% chance It doesn't snow anymore in Feb unless there is a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ugly shift in Canada on new GFS with western Canada and NAO-light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ugly shift in Canada on new GFS with western Canada and NAO-light. unfortunately for us, the operational models have extremely limited skill outside 72 hours when there is a meaningful northern stream, and have a HUGE bias toward giving us snow and then taking it away...which is what has made our lives so frustrating the last few winters..for every time a solution trends in our favor as we get inside 3 days, there are a 1000 times it trends against us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Ugly shift in Canada on new GFS with western Canada and NAO-light. It's a debacle. Our Epic February is turning into an epic debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's a debacle. Our Epic February is turning into an epic debacle. I think it is time to accept that operation models have no value with any forecast snow event outside 72 hours for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's a debacle. Our Epic February is turning into an epic debacle. It's also the GFS. If the EC comes on board, well.. you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 unfortunately for us, the operational models have extremely limited skill outside 72 hours when there is a meaningful northern stream, and have a HUGE bias toward giving us snow and then taking it away...which is what has made our lives so frustrating the last few winters..for every time a solution trends in our favor as we get inside 3 days, there are a 1000 times it trends against us... We'll see how ensemble mean trends look with this pv that gets displaced from actual north pole. Today, GFS says it drops into Hudson Bay! Ugh...it ruins the hybrid west NAO. So, huge changes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 992 Low over MN. Yea, that'll promptly kill our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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