Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That's the ticket! Keep calm and maintain. From this far out, this is about all we can ask for.I am worried that if we don't score next week...we are done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 We don't want it show a hit this far out anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Somehow yoda's descriptions makes bad news even worse. Last night Zwyts said meh and next 00z. I checked the maps and we has 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 We don't want it show a hit this far out anyway. True. Since the models are wrong whenever they show a HECS we probably want them to show a torch.. except they are almost always right about torch. (here comes Bob.. not this winter!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Remember when I offended back in 2003 when I said the 12z gfs nuked DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I am worried that if we don't score next week...we are done Probably. That's my "deadline" if we don't score by say the 20-25th, let's just move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'd love to punt Marxh but something tells me that won't be happening this yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Probably. That's my "deadline" if we don't score by say the 20-25th, let's just move on. GFS wants to keep us interested thru the end of the month it seems (yes, I know it's warm) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'd love to punt Marxh but something tells me that won't be happening this yr your hidden communist agenda was obvious w/o the Freudian slip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 your hidden communist agenda was obvious w/o the Freudian slip I saw that but was too lazy to fix it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I saw that but was too lazy to fix it nyet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 True. Since the models are wrong whenever they show a HECS we probably want them to show a torch.. except they are almost always right about torch. (here comes Bob.. not this winter!)What's kinda funny the last 5 weeks or so is that the gefs went all torch and stuff in mid Jan for late month but eps said no and the EPS verified. This month the EPS went all torch and stuff for mid month and the gefs said no and will likely verify. It's been an unusual season in the fact that you can hug the colder long range guidance and be right. Back in the early fall I said that my wag for the year would be alternating warm and cold periods with the colder periods outperforming for the season. It was a good guess. I only blew December because it was 106 for a couple days. Late Feb will prob warm but it will have some catching up to do to end up warm on the means. You've said it for years, it's hard to bet against persistence until it's gone. We've had decent stretch of no prolonged heat since Jan of last year for the most part. The warmth in the summer months were mostly the result of lows in the 80's with highs in the 80's. June especially IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I am worried that if we don't score next week...we are done You said that in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 You said that in December You and N md will get buried in march while I mow my lawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Last night Zwyts said meh and next 00z. I checked the maps and we has 8 inches it was a mangled thump that is sure to get worse and worse as we get closer....Like you I want a snowstorm...I haven't had one in 4 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 your hidden communist agenda was obvious w/o the Freudian slip he is just getting into the Olympic spirit. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I feel the same way when I buy a Powerball ticket . . . . . . And the odds on your powerball play are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 your hidden communist agenda was obvious w/o the Freudian slip I refuse to accept that the great ion is community-based. Logic says it was simply a typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 18z gefs looks pretty good. A lot of snowy solutions and better consensus. Still plenty of spread but look pretty good overall at this lead. Eta: The majority of members had a decent lp track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 18z gdex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 18z gdex image.jpg next panel gets even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 What's kinda funny the last 5 weeks or so is that the gefs went all torch and stuff in mid Jan for late month but eps said no and the EPS verified. This month the EPS went all torch and stuff for mid month and the gefs said no and will likely verify. It's been an unusual season in the fact that you can hug the colder long range guidance and be right. Back in the early fall I said that my wag for the year would be alternating warm and cold periods with the colder periods outperforming for the season. It was a good guess. I only blew December because it was 106 for a couple days. Late Feb will prob warm but it will have some catching up to do to end up warm on the means. You've said it for years, it's hard to bet against persistence until it's gone. We've had decent stretch of no prolonged heat since Jan of last year for the most part. The warmth in the summer months were mostly the result of lows in the 80's with highs in the 80's. June especially IIRC Yeah, agree pretty much entirely. Though as much as cold is winning it's amusing we (or at least DC) can't put up gigantic monthly departures.. I mean Jan was decent, but it doesn't reflect what it felt like much of the time. I don't really see why we're going to flip warm anytime soon.. perhaps there's a wholesale pattern change on the horizon and I haven't looked but the source regions are cold and we tend to like spring blocking over winter blocking. March rainers for me and pasting after pasting for Mt Parkton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 nyet! Nein! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Yeah, agree pretty much entirely. Though as much as cold is winning it's amusing we (or at least DC) can't put up gigantic monthly departures.. I mean Jan was decent, but it doesn't reflect what it felt like much of the time. I don't really see why we're going to flip warm anytime soon.. perhaps there's a wholesale pattern change on the horizon and I haven't looked but the source regions are cold and we tend to like spring blocking over winter blocking. March rainers for me and pasting after pasting for Mt Parkton. March will prob be some sort of epo reload early or West coast ridging with a -ao/nao. Lol. Could be an outright flip to se ridge. I don't have many thoughts tbh. I've given up on dca's cold. Something is jacked up down by the river. It may never hit below zero again unless Yellowstone blows its top. I think the Chesapeake ice is the biggest sign it was a cold winter. Solid year in that dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Does anyone have a 18z DGEX clown map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Does anyone have a 18z DGEX clown map?Looks reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Looks reasonable image.jpg She's beautiful. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k94 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 C Looks reasonableimage.jpg Can't wait until the CRAS gets in range for this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 NAVGEM only goes through 144 but it looks on board. Whew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 NAVGEM only goes through 144 but it looks on board. Whew! Is that the new NOGAPS ? Because no coastal storm on the models is legit until the NOGAPS is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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