Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 A couple of things here: 1. The problem is NOT the eastern PV "racing" away from us. In fact, the mess this weekend allows for the deepest low anomalies toward the 50-50 position yet. It MUST lift out in order for it to snow in the Mid Atlantic, otherwise it gets squashed. 2. The problem PV is the western PV. It drops down from the North Pole due to the N PAC block. It comes down and sits in N-C Canada the entire run basically after it drops in. This sits on the western side of the "west NAO-light" block. Some of the modeling insists that it will be assertive enough to ruin confluence on its on. Usually in a classic 50-50 low / coastal storm scenario, the confluence locks in anyway as the 50-50 low lifts because there is a ridge across W-C North America. That makes this upcoming case not quite classic SHOULD the western PV become a player. Might be worth looking into events and seeing if any had this western PV feature to the block. 2/22/86 is pretty close....you could also make a case for 2/26/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Yea, it was pretty fleeting in the big picture. But it took us a while to erase the model porn from our minds as it became clear the streams weren't going to dance. Ji, is the jma any good? I never even look at it. I broker a personal rule and looked at the canadian today. Time is short. I'm just going to hug whatever. Right now the jma is the front runner so i'll go with that. The JMA, like the CMC does not have great verification scores, but when a lot of the lesser globals start to pile on to a solution and the euro is in their camp, it does start to build a case. Safe to say all the guidance is in support of a gulf system coming up the east coast next week and there will be cold air around in front. Thats a pretty good starting spot imho but the rest is details we can't expect to iron out for a few days yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 2/22/86 is pretty close....you could also make a case for 2/26/10 Thanks man, I'll check them out; I knew I could count on you! I'm really devoted to finding some snow for DC. Whether you believe me or not is irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thanks man, I'll check them out; I knew I could count on you! I'm really devoted to finding some snow for DC. Whether you believe me or not is irrelevant. Late Feb is where it's at. Because early Feb is mostly cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Thanks man, I'll check them out; I knew I could count on you! I'm really devoted to finding some snow for DC. Whether you believe me or not is irrelevant. We got back to back 4" storms 2 days apart...and a 2" storm 2 days after that...not sure how the northeast did... EDIT - I know in the upcoming scenario the PV is further east and the faux -nao is further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Ji... I am banned over at wxrisk so I cant post on DT.. but can you post that on his page? Please.. and like do it in a completely irrelevant spot.... I cant..i am banned from his facebook page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Late Feb is where it's at. Because early Feb is mostly cooked. lol We got back to back 4" storms 2 days apart...and a 2" storm 2 days after that...not sure how the northeast did... EDIT - I know in the upcoming scenario the PV is further east and the faux -nao is further west feb1986.gif That is pretty darn good. The only problem is the North Atlantic. 1986 clearly had a classic -NAO progression while this year is sort of, well, not classic lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Late Feb is where it's at. Because early Feb is mostly cooked. the 2 weeks from 2/22 to 3/8 have been "productive" for us recently for whatever reason..events 6 out of the last 9 winters...we may have even outperformed climo over the last 10 years or so? MBY since 04-05 3/1-2/09 - 7.5" 2/24/05 - 4.5" 2/25/07 - 4.25" 2/28/05 - 3.25" 3/7/07 - 1.75" 3/8/05 - 1.0" 2/21-22/11 - 0.75" 2/27/10 - 0.25" 3/6/13 - 0.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 EURO ens mean looks like it agrees with the OP, it seems colder though and a bit farther East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 EURO ens mean looks like it agrees with the OP, it seems colder though and a bit farther East I dunno if its colder... 144 decent CAD going on and by 168 on the EPS mean the 0C line is over DCA.. but then drops back SE some by 192 Though the low is weak... like 1008-1012mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 EPS is better than last night. Seems like it is narrowing down the spread with precip. Surface and 850's colder overall but as yoda pointed out, 850's are borderline @ 168. Enough members with a close track. Mixing on the table for sure. But it is slightly further east than the op as a whole. It's a good run. The control run buries us pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 the 2 weeks from 2/22 to 3/8 have been "productive" for us recently for whatever reason..events 6 out of the last 9 winters...we may have even outperformed climo over the last 10 years or so? MBY since 04-05 3/1-2/09 - 7.5" 2/24/05 - 4.5" 2/25/07 - 4.25" 2/28/05 - 3.25" 3/7/07 - 1.75" 3/8/05 - 1.0" 2/21-22/11 - 0.75" 2/27/10 - 0.25" 3/6/13 - 0.25" There's actually a little secondary peak in that period .. shows up in a few spots that I've looked. At least on the lower end scale of accum. I always try to cancel winter early but climo remains fairly favorable through at least the first week of March.. you may be right though haven't looked per se at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I really do love modeled snow....their is an excitement behind it and your imagination can go wild. It would just be nice if some of the modeled snow actually fell onto my grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I really do love modeled snow....their is an excitement behind it and your imagination can go wild. It would just be nice if some of the modeled snow actually fell onto my grass it's hard to say this, I know I'll be scorned by those either out of or not yet completed detox....but I agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I really do love modeled snow....their is an excitement behind it and your imagination can go wild. It would just be nice if some of the modeled snow actually fell onto my grass I feel the same way when I buy a Powerball ticket . . . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I really do love modeled snow....their is an excitement behind it and your imagination can go wild. It would just be nice if some of the modeled snow actually fell onto my grass I have no grass, since I live in an apartment. I wish modeled snow would fall on my modeled grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I like the look of the GFS so far, it looks like we will get a better cold reinforcer at 114hrs, then we'll see if the remaining energy has enough to come up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 18Z racing precip out in front for mid-week storm. Way North with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Well the cold air is there now... but looks like its supressing any moisture to the S and E through 135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Like the look at 156. Need that high in Maine to stick around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like a race between the approaching low in the NW, the low over the gulf states and the retreating high over the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks like a race between the approaching low in the NW, the low over the gulf states and the retreating high over the NE. And one the high is losing and the approaching low from the NW is winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 EPS is better than last night. Seems like it is narrowing down the spread with precip. Surface and 850's colder overall but as yoda pointed out, 850's are borderline @ 168. Enough members with a close track. Mixing on the table for sure. But it is slightly further east than the op as a whole. It's a good run. The control run buries us pretty good too. for giggles, look at 360 hrs on the control run with the PV making a final appearance for the season I bet you that model will show it in the coming days phasing with the trough out in the west not saying it will, in fact, happen, just that the model will show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 And one the high is losing and the approaching low from the NW is winning Who cares. It's one model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Who cares. It's one model run It's always "one model run". Have to care sometime. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Who cares. It's one model run And an unlikely solution. I'll stick with the eps/gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's always "one model run". Have to care sometime. Just sayin'. Let's care Monday morning if the storm is even still showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Who cares. It's one model run Somehow yoda's descriptions makes bad news even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Let's care Monday morning if the storm is even still showing up That's the ticket! Keep calm and maintain. From this far out, this is about all we can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Let's care Monday morning if the storm is even still showing up Touche! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.