February Medium/Long Range Disco

[Ian]

the 2 weeks from 2/22 to 3/8 have been "productive" for us recently for whatever reason..events 6 out of the last 9 winters...we may have even outperformed climo over the last 10 years or so?

 

MBY since 04-05

 

3/1-2/09 - 7.5"

2/24/05 - 4.5"

2/25/07 - 4.25"

2/28/05 - 3.25"

3/7/07 - 1.75"

3/8/05 - 1.0"

2/21-22/11 - 0.75"

2/27/10 - 0.25"

3/6/13 - 0.25"

 

There's actually a little secondary peak in that period .. shows up in a few spots that I've looked. At least on the lower end scale of accum.  I always try to cancel winter early but climo remains fairly favorable through at least the first week of March.. you may be right though haven't looked per se at that.  

[Ji]

I really do love modeled snow....their is an excitement behind it and your imagination can go wild. It would just be nice if some of the modeled snow actually fell onto my grass

[mitchnick]

I really do love modeled snow....their is an excitement behind it and your imagination can go wild. It would just be nice if some of the modeled snow actually fell onto my grass

it's hard to say this, I know I'll be scorned by those either out of or not yet completed detox....but I agree 100%

[J.Mike]

I really do love modeled snow....their is an excitement behind it and your imagination can go wild. It would just be nice if some of the modeled snow actually fell onto my grass

I feel the same way when I buy a Powerball ticket . . . . . .

[wxw]

I really do love modeled snow....their is an excitement behind it and your imagination can go wild. It would just be nice if some of the modeled snow actually fell onto my grass

I have no grass, since I live in an apartment.  I wish modeled snow would fall on my modeled grass.

[Heisy]

I like the look of the GFS so far, it looks like we will get a better cold reinforcer at 114hrs, then we'll see if the remaining energy has enough to come up the coast

[JMU2004]

18Z racing precip out in front for mid-week storm. Way North with that.

[yoda]

Well the cold air is there now... but looks like its supressing any moisture to the S and E through 135

[JMU2004]

Like the look at 156. Need that high in Maine to stick around.

[SLPressure]

Looks like a race between the approaching low in the NW, the low over the gulf states and the retreating high over the NE.

[yoda]

Looks like a race between the approaching low in the NW, the low over the gulf states and the retreating high over the NE.

 

And one the high is losing and the approaching low from the NW is winning

[mitchnick]

EPS is better than last night. Seems like it is narrowing down the spread with precip. Surface and 850's colder overall but as yoda pointed out, 850's are borderline @ 168. Enough members with a close track. Mixing on the table for sure. But it is slightly further east than the op as a whole. It's a good run. 

 

The control run buries us pretty good too. 

for giggles, look at 360 hrs on the control run with the PV making a final appearance for the season

I bet you that model will show it in the coming days phasing with the trough out in the west

not saying it will, in fact, happen, just that the model will show it

[Ji]

And one the high is losing and the approaching low from the NW is winning

Who cares. It's one model run

[SLPressure]

Who cares. It's one model run

It's always "one model run". Have to care sometime. Just sayin'.

[Bob Chill]

Who cares. It's one model run

 

And an unlikely solution. I'll stick with the eps/gefs

[Ji]

It's always "one model run". Have to care sometime. Just sayin'.

Let's care Monday morning if the storm is even still showing up

[stormtracker]

Who cares. It's one model run

Somehow yoda's descriptions makes bad news even worse.

[stormtracker]

Let's care Monday morning if the storm is even still showing up

That's the ticket!  Keep calm and maintain.  From this far out, this is about all we can ask for.

[SLPressure]

Let's care Monday morning if the storm is even still showing up

Touche!

[Ji]

That's the ticket! Keep calm and maintain. From this far out, this is about all we can ask for.

I am worried that if we don't score next week...we are done

[Wonderdog]

We don't want it show a hit this far out anyway.

[Ji]

Somehow yoda's descriptions makes bad news even worse.

Last night Zwyts said meh and next 00z. I checked the maps and we has 8 inches

[Ian]

We don't want it show a hit this far out anyway.

True. Since the models are wrong whenever they show a HECS we probably want them to show a torch.. except they are almost always right about torch. (here comes Bob.. not this winter!) 

[Ji]

Remember when I offended back in 2003 when I said the 12z gfs nuked DC

[stormtracker]

I am worried that if we don't score next week...we are done

Probably.   That's my "deadline"  if we don't score by say the 20-25th, let's just move on.

[Ian]

I'd love to punt Marxh but something tells me that won't be happening this yr

[mitchnick]

Probably.   That's my "deadline"  if we don't score by say the 20-25th, let's just move on.

GFS wants to keep us interested thru the end of the month it seems (yes, I know it's warm)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

[mitchnick]

I'd love to punt Marxh but something tells me that won't be happening this yr

your hidden communist agenda was obvious w/o the Freudian slip     

[Ian]

your hidden communist agenda was obvious w/o the Freudian slip

I saw that but was too lazy to fix it

[mitchnick]

I saw that but was too lazy to fix it

nyet!