yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 if this is the current 12z GGEM run..it looks interesting Its not... thats yesterdays 12z run 144 would be 12z WED if it was today's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This is todays 12z for WED on the crappy maps http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif 12z GGEM shows lots of precip (waiting to see what it is) for late Wed into Thur... then weekend is nice bomb going through... Ohio Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This is todays 12z for WED on the crappy maps http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif Looks the same as the gfs @ 132. Consolidated precip in TX. Nothing out front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Keep calm and carry on. We all know it won't happen as depicted. The GFS will have about 15 different solutions between now and just before the storm. Part of the problem is we treat operational models the same at 144 hours as we do at 60....our approach is not consistent with the usefulness of models at certain ranges The other problem, is models tend to give DC, even within 72 hours, but especially outside that range, way way more snow than both climo and the pattern support. The is supported not only by observation, but by the fact that when models hone in on a solution they are much more likely, by a huge margin, to "take" away our snow, rather than improve their solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I remember Raleighwx saying earlier this winter that none of his analogs showed a -NAO. he was right. Terrible Atlantic all winter http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml QBO even more positive over the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This is todays 12z for WED on the crappy maps http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif 12z GGEM shows lots of precip (waiting to see what it is) for late Wed into Thur... then weekend is nice bomb going through... Ohio Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Keep calm and carry on. We all know it won't happen as depicted. The GFS will have about 15 different solutions between now and just before the storm. Yup. Granted, we will still probably get screwed either way, but this is the same GFS that gave us a long duration, all snow event at 18z yesterday for next Tuesday-Wednesday. Best to *try* and not let one OP run get us too down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looks the same as the gfs @ 132. Consolidated precip in TX. Nothing out front. it kicks that low out east though... 144 its just NW of New Orleans... 156 in N AL... 168 its just east of Ocean City... There is a H around in NE at 1035 to 1040mb... total precip is ~30mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 it kicks that low out east though... 144 its just NW of New Orleans... 156 in N AL... 168 its just east of Ocean City... There is a H around in NE at 1035 to 1040mb... total precip is ~30mm it's a huge hit but it's the canadian. GL low is trailing and further south than the gfs. We hold temps. Looks like a foot+ for the cities. But again, it's the canadian. I don't even know why I'm looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 it's a huge hit but it's the canadian. GL low is trailing and further south than the gfs. We hold temps. Looks like a foot+ for the cities. But again, it's the canadian. I don't even know why I'm looking at it. Yeah, its all snow... if we could just get that I think we would all be able to call it a winter Right after though a sub 980 low runs through W NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Lock the 12z GGEM please.. 37mm (~1.5" QPF) of snow... the H in NE does just enough to keep us in a snowstorm with good enough temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 I remember Raleighwx saying earlier this winter that none of his analogs showed a -NAO. he was right. Terrible Atlantic all winter http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml Last year's neg NAO did nothing. Nothing. This year has been a better winter, by far, than last. Too much emphasis around here is placed on trying to get an 18" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Lock the 12z GGEM please.. 37mm (~1.5" QPF) of snow... the H in NE does just enough to keep us in a snowstorm with good enough temps The most important thing is less interaction with the gl low. The gfs would be a good hit without it as well. Still would probably mix but certainly a more frozen outcome than as depicted. I think we should all accept a mixed event though if anything at all. Sure it could trend better but a retreating hp cannot be overlooked regardless of the gl low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The most important thing is less interaction with the gl low. The gfs would be a good hit without it as well. Still would probably mix but certainly a more frozen outcome than as depicted. I think we should all accept a mixed event though if anything at all. Sure it could trend better but a retreating hp cannot be overlooked regardless of the gl low. True, we should all accept that we will mix and temper our expectations accordingly. FWIW, 12z UKIE at 144 has a 1033 H around Buffalo and a 1011 L in the GOM south of Mobile AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GEFS has the typical mixed bag of solutions. Take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think it is pretty clear we might scrape an inch here or there...If we are lucky maybe a mixy 2-4" storm....but beyond that any sizable storm is complete fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GEFS has the typical mixed bag of solutions. Take your pick. I'll pick the Canadian at 168 hrs. Alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I'll pick the Canadian at 168 hrs. Alex 0% chance a big storm is happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I think it is pretty clear we might scrape an inch here or there...If we are lucky maybe a mixy 2-4" storm....but beyond that any sizable storm is complete fantasy I think we're on the same page with this one. A good hit requires a front running piece that is now absent. I don't think it's coming back either. So we rely on a coastal type system with a retreating hp and an added bonus of a possible gl glow screwing up midlevel flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 0% chance a big storm is happening sorry, the correct question would have been "what is hopeless" thanks for playing....we have some great parting gifts like screen saver panels of the JMA model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 0% chance a big storm is happening Lol.... Modeled snow again showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 0% chance a big storm is happening See you in a few minutes for the Euro. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GEFS has the typical mixed bag of solutions. Take your pick. This pattern is unusually unpredictable. Fast flow off the pacific with little in the way of ridging in the west and no real western Atlantic block has always been a forecast nightmare sometime even into the day 2 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 This pattern is unusually unpredictable. Fast flow off the pacific with little in the way of ridging in the west and no real western Atlantic block has always been a forecast nightmare sometime even into the day 2 range. it is almost useless and wasted breath to keep watching for things 5+ days out given the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 0% chance a big storm is happening Its very unlikely but DC has lucked its way to at least a moderate snowfall in flawed patterns before. Feb 2006 and Jan 2011 come to mind. I totally understand that pessimism given recent history but you never see it coming until it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's a pretty big hit for far NW burbs...high sliding off and low to our west hurts...still shows the front end thump again...I imagine this will trend worse for DC as we get close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's a pretty big hit for far NW burbs...high sliding off and low to our west hurts...still shows the front end thump again...I imagine this will trend worse for DC as we get close in As long as we get like as 3-5 incher in front I dont mind really.... yes, we all want it to be all snow, but we must take what we can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 As long as we get like as 3-5 incher in front I dont mind really.... yes, we all want it to be all snow, but we must take what we can get It probably won't happen...my guess is mostly sleet/rain for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 156 is nicely cold @ 850 for everyone but retreats @ 162. Zero right overhead @ DC. Plenty of precip in front. About .8 areawide. DC would be mostly snow up to 162 as well. It's a great fantasy run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It probably won't happen...my guess is mostly sleet/rain for us That is true the way this winter has gone... but I was stating if there was a supposed thump... i am sure most of us would take a 2-4/3-5 and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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