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February Medium/Long Range Disco

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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BlizzardNole

BlizzardNole

Posted
Posted

Gonna buy my valentines day card at the Hagerstown outlets on the day of the storm

 Seriously do it if you can.  I was off Monday so I drove just 33 miles up 270 and 70 to South Mountain and saw 4-5" of snow and moderate snow falling, while I had rain at my house.

 

Go do some shopping at the outlets and get lunch while watching snow fall!

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

There's a weak wave over the great lakes but no closed circ. @ 150 there's a 1002 but it's north of north dakota. 

Plus if I remember correctly the coastal low runs just west of Hatteras and with the high off the coast we'd probably have some easterly flow to mess things up for us.    Traditionally, we have mixing problems with such storms.  Still it's way too early to say much besides there is liable to be a storm sometime towards mid week.  The GEFS members from 06Z couldn't even agree on the timing of any possible storm. 

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usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

lol at talking about chasing a fantasy event 6 days out

If you look at the GEFS member's 500 forecasts,  none look as amped as the euro. It will be interesting to see how the Euro eps looks compared to it.  Because it means things out, it is likely to look weaker but if it's way weaker, I'd be leery of buying such a wrapped up 500.  This will also be a time to look at the control to see if the flatter look is due to resolution differences. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Plus if I remember correctly the coastal low runs just west of Hatteras and with the high off the coast we'd probably have some easterly flow to mess things up for us.    Traditionally, we have mixing problems with such storms.  Still it's way too early to say much besides there is liable to be a storm sometime towards mid week.  The GEFS members from 06Z couldn't even agree on the timing of any possible storm. 

 

No doubt on the slp track. It's too far west. Mixing for sure. All we can do is hope we can maximize whatever happens while the column supports it. This of course assumes there is any precip before the hp retreats. The euro was a good run for a front end thump and it will change every 12 hours for days

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted

It is pretty interesting how the SE gets more snow than NE with a bombing low. Could be good timing for western areas of the SE as the HP is held in temporarily by a transient 50/50. 

 

I may be a weenie, but it is almost embarrassing that there are posters in NYC forum comparing it to 1996 & March 2001, like wth?

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

Then what low to the west is zwyts talking about?

 

at 162 hours, the pressure is like 1010mb over Toledo and 1036mb over newfoundland...it's basically the same thing as having a closed circulation discrete low over Lake Michigan

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

actually, Euro is giving BWI .14" qpf for Saturday so the storm isn't/wasn't lost, it just failed to develop to its max potential (that was only shown on 1 run anyway)

 

Yea, it was pretty fleeting in the big picture. But it took us a while to erase the model porn from our minds as it became clear the streams weren't going to dance. 

 

Ji, is the jma any good? I never even look at it. I broker a personal rule and looked at the canadian today. Time is short. I'm just going to hug whatever. Right now the jma is the front runner so i'll go with that. 

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

A couple of things here:

 

1. The problem is NOT the eastern PV "racing" away from us. In fact, the mess this weekend allows for the deepest low anomalies toward the 50-50 position yet. It MUST lift out in order for it to snow in the Mid Atlantic, otherwise it gets squashed.

 

2. The problem PV is the western PV. It drops down from the North Pole due to the N PAC block. It comes down and sits in N-C Canada the entire run basically after it drops in. This sits on the western side of the "west NAO-light" block. Some of the modeling insists that it will be assertive enough to ruin confluence on its on.

 

Usually in a classic 50-50 low / coastal storm scenario, the confluence locks in anyway as the 50-50 low lifts because there is a ridge across W-C North America. That makes this upcoming case not quite classic SHOULD the western PV become a player.

 

Might be worth looking into events and seeing if any had this western PV feature to the block.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

i didnt think it would lose the feb 8-10 storm either....every model had it...6 days out

It didnt "lose" it, just realized the northern and southern stream vorts were not going to phase and turned it into two separate weak piece of crap systems. 

 

EDIT:  in theory this upcoming week is less complicated.  Early in the week the flow is suppressive but as the week goes on the flow backs and something will evetually come out of the gulf.  It won't need a complicated phase job to pull it off either.  The details are way up in the air.  GFS brings it out in several waves, GGEM in two waves a HECS then a cutter, and the Euro into one bomb.  Of course those details will determine how this ends for the area.

 

On the negative side, the northern stream is not cooperating with confluence and the atlantic is only so so, this means timing will be an issue or the thermal profile won't work out

 

On the positive side, there will be cold in place in front of whatever comes out of the gulf, and this wave will initiate well to our south.  Getting those two things is half the battle. 

 

As for the euro solution, that track is inside where DC wants it, but it doesnt have to always trend into a disaster...there was a storm in January 87 with a similar inside track that should have changed over but it was racing up the coast (progressive) and the WAA thump got way out in front so DC got 10" then dry slot before the warm air could get in.  Same with Feb 72, one of the analogs, where DC got 6" and IAD 10 before the WAA did its damage.  Its a long shot but the give up all hope thing is silly also.  But I guess if that makes you feel better, whatever floats your boat. 

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

A couple of things here:

 

1. The problem is NOT the eastern PV "racing" away from us. In fact, the mess this weekend allows for the deepest low anomalies toward the 50-50 position yet. It MUST lift out in order for it to snow in the Mid Atlantic, otherwise it gets squashed.

 

2. The problem PV is the western PV. It drops down from the North Pole due to the N PAC block. It comes down and sits in N-C Canada the entire run basically after it drops in. This sits on the western side of the "west NAO-light" block. Some of the modeling insists that it will be assertive enough to ruin confluence on its on.

 

Usually in a classic 50-50 low / coastal storm scenario, the confluence locks in anyway as the 50-50 low lifts because there is a ridge across W-C North America. That makes this upcoming case not quite classic SHOULD the western PV become a player.

 

Might be worth looking into events and seeing if any had this western PV feature to the block.

 

2/22/86 is pretty close....you could also make a case for 2/26/10

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Yea, it was pretty fleeting in the big picture. But it took us a while to erase the model porn from our minds as it became clear the streams weren't going to dance. 

 

Ji, is the jma any good? I never even look at it. I broker a personal rule and looked at the canadian today. Time is short. I'm just going to hug whatever. Right now the jma is the front runner so i'll go with that. 

The JMA, like the CMC does not have great verification scores, but when a lot of the lesser globals start to pile on to a solution and the euro is in their camp, it does start to build a case.  Safe to say all the guidance is in support of a gulf system coming up the east coast next week and there will be cold air around in front.  Thats a pretty good starting spot imho but the rest is details we can't expect to iron out for a few days yet. 

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

2/22/86 is pretty close....you could also make a case for 2/26/10

 

Thanks man, I'll check them out; I knew I could count on you! ;)

 

I'm really devoted to finding some snow for DC. Whether you believe me or not is irrelevant.  :P

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Thanks man, I'll check them out; I knew I could count on you! ;)

 

I'm really devoted to finding some snow for DC. Whether you believe me or not is irrelevant.  :P

Late Feb is where it's at.  Because early Feb is mostly cooked. :P 

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

Thanks man, I'll check them out; I knew I could count on you! ;)

 

I'm really devoted to finding some snow for DC. Whether you believe me or not is irrelevant.  :P

 

We got back to back 4" storms 2 days apart...and a 2" storm 2 days after that...not sure how the northeast did...

 

EDIT - I know in the upcoming scenario the PV is further east and the faux -nao is further west

 

post-66-0-88411000-1391717897_thumb.gif

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

Late Feb is where it's at.  Because early Feb is mostly cooked. :P

lol

 

We got back to back 4" storms 2 days apart...and a 2" storm 2 days after that...not sure how the northeast did...

 

EDIT - I know in the upcoming scenario the PV is further east and the faux -nao is further west

 

attachicon.giffeb1986.gif

 

That is pretty darn good. The only problem is the North Atlantic. 1986 clearly had a classic -NAO progression while  this year is sort of, well, not classic lol.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

Late Feb is where it's at.  Because early Feb is mostly cooked. :P

 

the 2 weeks from 2/22 to 3/8 have been "productive" for us recently for whatever reason..events 6 out of the last 9 winters...we may have even outperformed climo over the last 10 years or so?

 

MBY since 04-05

 

3/1-2/09 - 7.5"

2/24/05 - 4.5"

2/25/07 - 4.25"

2/28/05 - 3.25"

3/7/07 - 1.75"

3/8/05 - 1.0"

2/21-22/11 - 0.75"

2/27/10 - 0.25"

3/6/13 - 0.25"

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

EURO ens mean looks like it agrees with the OP, it seems colder though and a bit farther East

 

I dunno if its colder... 144 decent CAD going on and by 168 on the EPS mean the 0C line is over DCA.. but then drops back SE some by 192

 

Though the low is weak... like 1008-1012mb

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

EPS is better than last night. Seems like it is narrowing down the spread with precip. Surface and 850's colder overall but as yoda pointed out, 850's are borderline @ 168. Enough members with a close track. Mixing on the table for sure. But it is slightly further east than the op as a whole. It's a good run. 

 

The control run buries us pretty good too. 

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