February Medium/Long Range Disco

[JMU2004]

Its right around Mobile Bay at 147

 

That front wave of precip is way South when compared to 0z. 

 

AT 150 and 156 we have snow breaking into VA

 

Guessing the lakes low kills our cold air.

[stormtracker]

Looks like another non phased, suppressed scooter OTS.  Gonna be a painful painful week potentially.

[Bob Chill]

Looks like another non phased, suppressed scooter OTS.  Gonna be a painful painful week potentially.

 

Not too painful. Expect a possible mixed event of some sort with little resolution at this lead. That's about it. 

[yoda]

Does get some snow into the DC area at 162 and 165

[Heisy]

By the time the low comes up the coast and phases with the energy in the plains, the HP has slid east, there is no confluence, so basically it is most likely an inland snowstorm 

[stormtracker]

EDIT...it comes up, but we start losing the cold.....

[stormtracker]

By the time the low comes up the coast and phases with the energy in the plains, the HP has slid east, there is no confluence, so basically it is most likely an inland snowstorm 

It doesn't track inland

[Huffwx]

Once the SLP rounds the corner, you get a little east tug on the h85 line. No idea if there is a warm nose above that. 

[Heisy]

A low over the Lakes while there's a Low near us usually doesn't equate to a snowstorm. We would need the initial southern vort to kind of do its work on its own, yet it doesn't really get going until the trough axis merges with the energy over Canada. (if that makes sense)

[Bob Chill]

EDIT...it comes up, but we start losing the cold.....

 

Thermals get screwed up by the tug of the gl low. Could easily happen but we won't know for days. 

[MN Transplant]

At least the GFS knows where Philly is

[JMU2004]

No cold air on this run. Rain after a front end snow.

[yoda]

Once the SLP rounds the corner, you get a little east tug on the h85 line. No idea if there is a warm nose above that. 

 

Its raining at 33 by once you get past 168

[psuhoffman]

The evolution on the 12z GFS is actually fairly close to the Feb 1972 storm.  The coastal is a bit more dominant versus the lakes low in the 1972 case, and as seen on the 12zGFS the whole thing fails to bomb as quickly so there are significant differences but there are overall pattern similarities.  That 1972 storm has been showing up in the analogs for a few runs now as well. 

 

EDIT:  the GFS is still splitting energy between the 2 vorts in the northern stream...if it were to consolidate a bit more one of them would probably dig more and bomb the whole thing out more like 1972.  The h5 setup is very close except for that splitting of energy.  I am not saying that would likely happen, and its silly to look at details like that at 150 hours out, but its a minor change that would make a huge difference in what we experience on the ground. 

[Heisy]

Thermals get screwed up by the tug of the gl low. Could easily happen but we won't know for days. 

 

Thats what I'm trying to explain, especially since the cold air source has diminished, all I'm saying is we'd need the southern vort to kind of do it on its own, but models are trending away from that since 00z

[HighStakes]

There will be plenty to track over the next couple weeks. That may all that can be said as of right now. It will be cold and there will be some light snows this weekend. Chasing the big phased event is too difficult as psuhoffman has laid out unless things line up perfectly. Hopefully the area can catch some decent waves similar to 1/21. A couple moderate events region wide is still very possible.

[Bob Chill]

Thats what I'm trying to explain, especially since the cold air source has diminished, all I'm saying is we'd need the southern vort to kind of do it on its own, but models are trending away from that since 00z

 

Faster evolution is where we need to be. Outrun the influence of the gl low (assuming it will even exists at all or within several hundred miles of the model). This is not a big storm setup. It's a mixed event almost every way you slice it unless we time it. 

[Huffwx]

Its raining at 33 by once you get past 168

 

 

Not down here. Good intu CAD event. Would be snow to ZR down here. 171 looks to be above down here.. taken as is. 

[Bob Chill]

And another shortwave on the heels. This pattern may frustrate but it will not bore. 

[psuhoffman]

GFS still tries to do something with the vort it left behind but the flow behind the first low is probably going to prevent anything.  Again, so many vorts so close together splitting the energy, dampening things out.  We need more consolidation. 

[mitchnick]

BWI....what a sad joke this hobby has become

THU 06Z 13-FEB  -2.0    -1.4    1018      92      99    0.07     553     539    THU 12Z 13-FEB  -0.5     0.9    1008      96      99    0.32     550     543    THU 18Z 13-FEB   0.6     0.2    1003      95      90    0.45     544     542    FRI 00Z 14-FEB  -0.7    -0.7    1007      93      46    0.01     547     542 

I know, I know, it's a week away, but my comment is true regardless of this event

[HighStakes]

Faster evolution is where we need to be. Outrun the influence of the gl low (assuming it will even exists at all or within several hundred miles of the model). This is not a big storm setup. It's a mixed event almost every way you slice it unless we time it. 

Definitely a mixed scenario. I like to see a shift back to the overrunning situation. The airmass early next week is legit and it would be ideal to have some precip break out and catch the cold before a bigger low would follow.

[psuhoffman]

Faster evolution is where we need to be. Outrun the influence of the gl low (assuming it will even exists at all or within several hundred miles of the model). This is not a big storm setup. It's a mixed event almost every way you slice it unless we time it. 

its not that simple...there is a reason the storm doesn't develop faster.  It tries...there is STJ moisture ready to be tapped for days but the flow is suppressive over the east coast at that time.  The northern and southern streams are not aligned right, so the stj has to wait for the trough digging in behind it to approach to back the flow along the east coast and allow something to come up.  Of course by then we lost the cold.  Instead of speeding up the STJ system the better solution would be to slow down the northern stream and have that high coming in behind the storm not out in front of it. 

[Ji]

Pattern sucks. Our best chance was this past week especially last Monday

I hate our area

[Bob Chill]

its not that simple...there is a reason the storm doesn't develop faster.  It tries...there is STJ moisture ready to be tapped for days but the flow is suppressive over the east coast at that time.  The northern and southern streams are not aligned right, so the stj has to wait for the trough digging in behind it to approach to back the flow along the east coast and allow something to come up.  Of course by then we lost the cold.  Instead of speeding up the STJ system the better solution would be to slow down the northern stream and have that high coming in behind the storm not out in front of it. 

 

True, the first problem started with a weaker vort in general embedded in the ss. Stronger vort  could easily tap and eject overunning out in front. Models have decisively moved away from that but I'm not all that invested is splitting hairs on this one. It can work and it can fail. I'll go somewhere in between and be satisfied. 

[stormtracker]

Keep calm and carry on.  We all know it won't happen as depicted.  The GFS will have about 15 different solutions between now and just before the storm.

[HighStakes]

its not that simple...there is a reason the storm doesn't develop faster.  It tries...there is STJ moisture ready to be tapped for days but the flow is suppressive over the east coast at that time.  The northern and southern streams are not aligned right, so the stj has to wait for the trough digging in behind it to approach to back the flow along the east coast and allow something to come up.  Of course by then we lost the cold.  Instead of speeding up the STJ system the better solution would be to slow down the northern stream and have that high coming in behind the storm not out in front of it. 

I think people are underestimating the power of the early week cold. If we didn't have so much cold already we would be more impressed with what is coming. I would guess the magnitude of the cold is what is causing the storm to be delayed.

[psuhoffman]

Keep calm and carry on.  We all know it won't happen as depicted.  The GFS will have about 15 different solutions between now and just before the storm.

exactly... the STJ is going to be active, we have cold available, its not like some years where its just warm all over the CONUS, we also have a bit of help from the NAO coming up.  Some other things are not helping at all so its a flawed pattern but we have a chance if things can time up correctly.  Its not a lost cause just have to watch and see what develops.  Models cant see to figure out how to handle things in this pattern well, and all of the times something looked great from 10 days out it turned to crap.  I would much rather have the setup look "OK" but flawed at this range and hope that when the situation evolves as we know it will...that it does so in our favor this time. 

[Ji]

I remember Raleighwx saying earlier this winter that none of his analogs showed a -NAO.

 

he was right. Terrible Atlantic all winter

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

[Ji]

if this is the current 12z GGEM run..it looks interesting