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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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I remember Raleighwx saying earlier this winter that none of his analogs showed a -NAO.

 

he was right. Terrible Atlantic all winter

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml

Last year's neg NAO did nothing.  Nothing.  

 

This year has been a better winter, by far, than last.  Too much emphasis around here is placed on trying to get an 18" snow.

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Lock the 12z GGEM please.. 37mm (~1.5" QPF) of snow... the H in NE does just enough to keep us in a snowstorm with good enough temps

 

The most important thing is less interaction with the gl low. The gfs would be a good hit without it as well. Still would probably mix but certainly a more frozen outcome than as depicted. I think we should all accept a mixed event though if anything at all. Sure it could trend better but a retreating hp cannot be overlooked regardless of the gl low. 

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The most important thing is less interaction with the gl low. The gfs would be a good hit without it as well. Still would probably mix but certainly a more frozen outcome than as depicted. I think we should all accept a mixed event though if anything at all. Sure it could trend better but a retreating hp cannot be overlooked regardless of the gl low. 

 

True, we should all accept that we will mix and temper our expectations accordingly. 

 

FWIW, 12z UKIE at 144 has a 1033 H around Buffalo and a 1011 L in the GOM south of Mobile AL

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I think it is pretty clear we might scrape an inch here or there...If we are lucky maybe a mixy 2-4" storm....but beyond that any sizable storm is complete fantasy

 

I think we're on the same page with this one. A good hit requires a front running piece that is now absent. I don't think it's coming back either. So we rely on a coastal type system with a retreating hp and an added bonus of a possible gl glow screwing up midlevel flow. 

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This pattern is unusually unpredictable.  Fast flow off the pacific with little in the way of ridging in the west and no real western Atlantic block has always been a forecast nightmare sometime even into the day 2 range. 

 

it is almost useless and wasted breath to keep watching for things 5+ days out given the pattern.  

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It's a pretty big hit for far NW burbs...high sliding off and low to our west hurts...still shows the front end thump again...I imagine this will trend worse for DC as we get close in

 

As long as we get like as 3-5 incher in front I dont mind really.... yes, we all want it to be all snow, but we must take what we can get

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It's a pretty big hit for far NW burbs...high sliding off and low to our west hurts...still shows the front end thump again...I imagine this will trend worse for DC as we get close in

I suspect you're right about it trending worse but we still could see accumulating snow on the front end.  This is one of those cases where I usually get screwed even more than DCA.    The guys way out north and west could be super happy, for them it's a great run. 

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