Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 If we can't score within the next 8 days, I quit. You'll have no choice . It will be spring by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Well, this is what I see...Not like it matters anyway, just saying IT IS above freezing at the surface. Dark Blue line is the freezing line cmc2.png It shows most of the snowfall in the burbs as it is too warm for I-95. Though it does look cold enough at 850, so I guess it would snow. Arguing about a CMC 201HR map though is pointless lol Hush it's snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 EURO has a big storm coming out of the gulf at 162, lots of precip & good cad, but the High is slipping East and it MAY run inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 168 Hours, snowstorm incoming, thought High has slid East so it may end up being a thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Warms up big time at 174, inland areas of NC got crushed DC-Philly 6-8" before changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 what a lousy pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Warms up big time at 174, inland areas of NC got crushed DC-Philly 6-8" before changing to rain. I forgot you bought stormvista. Is this the best use of your money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 next Any more nexts and it's spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Any more nexts and it's spring you get a bunch of modeled snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 anyway for people who want to know what the euro does, see heisenbergs posts...it thumps us good and then we flip...low to our west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It's alone with that solution. Euro has been lousy in 6-7 day range anyway. Well probably see 5 percent of modeled snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Maybe the Euro is too slow...the other models have that thing along the coast at the time. Maybe the slower time allows the high to run out ahead of it. At least I hope/wish that's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Warms up big time at 174, inland areas of NC got crushed DC-Philly 6-8" before changing to rain. low it at mouth of bay, another low in the lakes region, clown maps give us over a ft. of snow !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 6z gfs was hideous front to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 6z gfs was hideous front to back. Not really. Cold air in place and vorts running to our south. Thats all you can ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Not really. Cold air in place and vorts running to our south. Thats all you can ask for at this point. funny gfs didnt catch onto monday storm till saturday yet got it wrong anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Not really. Cold air in place and vorts running to our south. Thats all you can ask for at this point.Actually, i can ask for a block and, yaknow, snowstorms. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Maybe the Euro is too slow...the other models have that thing along the coast at the time. Maybe the slower time allows the high to run out ahead of it. At least I hope/wish that's true. Slow is bad. With nothing to lock in the hp it's going to slide as the storm approaches. If we don't get any frontrunning love we're back to hanging our hat on a complicated temp situation. It's not a pattern supportive of a cold coastal. Cold will retreat as precip moves in. We'll prob get frozen out of this setup but it can easily be the wrong kind. Front end thump is where it's at. Hope for fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Well, this is what I see...Not like it matters anyway, just saying IT IS above freezing at the surface. Dark Blue line is the freezing line cmc2.png It shows most of the snowfall in the burbs as it is too warm for I-95. Though it does look cold enough at 850, so I guess it would snow. Arguing about a CMC 201HR map though is pointless lol That's snow at my house.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Not really. Cold air in place and vorts running to our south. Thats all you can ask for at this point. You winchester posters might as well be on a different planet from us inside the beltways when it comes to this set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Ensemble mean for leesburg Va through 240 is 6 inches. 4 inches for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Ensemble mean for leesburg Va through 240 is 6 inches. 4 inches for DCA Verbatim on the means it looks like snow to sleet to zr to rain. I always compare temp panels to raw snow output. Raw snow output is flawed like a mofo on wxbell. The negative part of the run is the frontrunning part is south. we don't get into good precip on the means until 168-174 (first panel to show precip in our area on the means is 144 though). We're too far out to worry about anything that specific at this point though. I expect a mixed event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looking beyond the 12th, signs are pointing to an overall better odds period for winter weather. All global guidance is converging on a -AO period coming up from the 12th - 19th+/-. There are hints of -nao as well but long lead nao stuff is too volatile to discuss. There is also a brief +pna spike during the same timeframe emerging on ensemble guidance. Here's the latest gefs ao guidance. The euro and eps are similar. We've experienced 3 -AO dips since the beginning of Jan. The first 2 produced regionwide snows. The 3rd we whiffed to the big se snow/ice storm. There are still flaws in the upcoming pattern. The goa vortex is strong and it appears progressive in the 50/50 region for now. If past history and repetitive patterns continue, we will likely have a shot at another event from the 12th - 19th. Big event is doubtful but we'll see if this look continues as we get closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS so far at 111hrs had a weaker shortwave coming from out west. We'll see if it'll eventually phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS so far at 111hrs had a weaker shortwave coming from out west. We'll see if it'll eventually phase. phasing this year has been a lost cause...all of the snow events, even up in the northeast, have been from waves along the thermal boundary. As we head later into the year, and IF blocking sets up, perhaps something might phase but I wouldn't bet much money on it. Even the -NAO showing up in the means is not a true block...it will help of course but it seems progressive is the way to go this year. We have seen the models try to phase things over and over again only to realize once the event approaches that the pieces are not going to come together. Our better bet would be to get a nice juiced STJ driven system that can produce without the northern stream while there is some confluence but not so much to suppress it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Unicorn #2 looks big time suppressed on 12z GFS through 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Unicorn #2 looks big time suppressed on 12z GFS through 138 Its right around Mobile Bay at 147 there is some CAD at 153 as the low is in W FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Again the northern stream and southern stream features are misaligned on the 12z GFS. The high is out in front acting to suppress the stj system. So it either has to wait and then cut once the high is to the east...or the system is squashed. There is that darn lakes low showing up again diving in too far west to phase and even if it did...(not likely) it would pull everything into the ohio valley. On the positive side all guidance agrees there will be a gulf low hanging around with cold available next week... the other details are likely to change a lot between now and then but the two most critical parts are at least there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS is interesting so far. Develops nice SW and pops a low.. slow process. And we lose the cold air between departing HP and SW in GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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