Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 EPS now mostly below normal through the entire 15 days. The warmup seems to keep getting pushed. EPS caved to the GEFS this time. We'll see how it shakes out. Looks like we get enough ridging in the sw and higher heights near the pole to keep us in good shape temps wise for snow chances. EPS is pretty wet d10-15 too. It's not a classic pattern at all but one that has cold nearby and gulf/pac open for businesses. ETA: EPS snow output very bullish for next week. yea, I know I know....we've heard this before. DC is 2" on the means for the weekend and 5" for next week. Only one member shows no snow for next week. That isn't very common at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That has always puzzled me. I can think of no reasonable reason to do that. Seems they would just as likely give us way less than we get. BTW, go back to posting under "SNOW". I think it's got more mojo. I just think the models have certain biases in the longer range...and they tend to show events that are unsupported by the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 EPS now mostly below normal through the entire 15 days. The warmup seems to keep getting pushed. EPS caved to the GEFS this time. We'll see how it shakes out. Looks like we get enough ridging in the sw and higher heights near the pole to keep us in good shape temps wise for snow chances. EPS is pretty wet d10-15 too. It's not a classic pattern at all but one that has cold nearby and gulf/pac open for businesses. It's a pretty bad PAC....and it gets worse....I think a 1-3/2-4" type event seems the most likely in the next 2 weeks, perhaps more than 1....but I highly highly doubt DC gets an event over 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 I just think the models have certain biases in the longer range...and they tend to show events that are unsupported by the pattern I guess they have cold biases. Otherwise, you'd think they would show plenty of storms that are warmer than they end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I just think the models have certain biases in the longer range...and they tend to show events that are unsupported by the pattern. I think the models tend to want to phase things or amp systems in the longer ranges when small wrenches in the plan don't show upThen when we get closer they pick up all the smaller scale intricate parts that can mess it up if not timed right and it falls apart. Just seems that way I have no data to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It's a pretty bad PAC....and it gets worse....I think a 1-3/2-4" type event seems the most likely in the next 2 weeks, perhaps more than 1....but I highly highly doubt DC gets an event over 4" I wasn't implying good. Just saying that the window of chances continues. And it's certainly not a big storm pattern because any big storm would probably be rain. Next week is interesting and probably one the few ways DC can get a good snow without relying on coastal development. A plume of moisture from the gulf into an entrenched cold airmass is a way to score a good event when the nearest low pressure system is over 500 miles away. It could go totally to he!! or we can be in the right place at the right time. We'll see. It's a different setup than this weekend. Less complicated at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I wasn't implying good. Just saying that the window of chances continues. And it's certainly not a big storm pattern because any big storm would probably be rain. Next week is interesting and probably one the few ways DC can get a good snow without relying on coastal development. A plume of moisture from the gulf into an entrenched cold airmass is a way to score a good event when the nearest low pressure system is over 500 miles away. It could go totally to he!! or we can be in the right place at the right time. We'll see. It's a different setup than this weekend. Less complicated at the very least. Don't worry it seems less complicated now. In about 2-3 days we'll all be talking about how complicated it is and how we need timing etc. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Don't worry it seems less complicated now. In about 2-3 days we'll all be talking about how complicated it is and how we need timing etc. etc. If the front running precip vanishes it's a complicated mess. That piece (if for some odd reason it happens) isn't complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 That has always puzzled me. I can think of no reasonable reason to do that. Seems they would just as likely give us way less than we get. BTW, go back to posting under "SNOW". I think it's got more mojo. They do, it's just we don't track the days the models show nothing from two weeks out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 . I think the models tend to want to phase things or amp systems in the longer ranges when small wrenches in the plan don't show up Then when we get closer they pick up all the smaller scale intricate parts that can mess it up if not timed right and it falls apart. Just seems that way I have no data to back it up. Good post. I never really thought about it like that. Makes a lot of sense. . I think the models tend to want to phase things or amp systems in the longer ranges when small wrenches in the plan don't show up Then when we get closer they pick up all the smaller scale intricate parts that can mess it up if not timed right and it falls apart. Just seems that way I have no data to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 They do, it's just we don't track the days the models show nothing from two weeks out... Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Good point. Although, I think it would be fun to start a thread that did just that. Hey, everyone see hr 336 on the 18z GFS? Looks bo-o-oring! Road trip to Annandale to catch the 40 degrees and partly cloudy? #Nomageddon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Good point. If one were to take the verbatim snow output from each 384-hour GFS run across the season and add that number together, it'd be interesting to see how that would compare to the measured snowfall over 384-hour increments starting from 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z each day of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanInMd Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 If one were to take the verbatim snow output from each 384-hour GFS run across the season and add that number together, it'd be interesting to see how that would compare to the measured snowfall over 384-hour increments starting from 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z each day of the season. I agree that is an interesting question :-) I actually started a little side project this season based on question is "18z really happy hour" and the broader question of "How much snow was modeled versus how much actually fell" at various forecast lead times. I have a script that grabs the Cobb data and stores it in a time series for each model run of 0/6/12/18z. I do it for each model run of GFS and NAM looking and put it in 24 bins with lead times of 24, 48 and 72 plus 96 and 120 on the GFS for each DC area airport. I have not automated it yet so I have a bunch of gaps in the data, but here is an example of the raw output from the most recent model runs And a visual of the 24 hour accumulated snowfall time series for the 12z GFS at 24 and 120 hr lead times. I need to add the actual snowfall and will probably add some more sophisticated visualization of the data before next season as I also need to prove out some integration with web based visualization tools....so I may have some insight into that question for next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I agree that is an interesting question :-) I actually started a little side project this season based on question is "18z really happy hour" and the broader question of "How much snow was modeled versus how much actually fell" at various forecast lead times. I have a script that grabs the Cobb data and stores it in a time series for each model run of 0/6/12/18z. I do it for each model run of GFS and NAM looking and put it in 24 bins with lead times of 24, 48 and 72 plus 96 and 120 on the GFS for each DC area airport. I have not automated it yet so I have a bunch of gaps in the data, but here is an example of the raw output from the most recent model runs And a visual of the 24 hour accumulated snowfall time series for the 12z GFS at 24 and 120 hr lead times. I need to add the actual snowfall and will probably add some more sophisticated visualization of the data before next season as I also need to prove out some integration with web based visualization tools....so I may have some insight into that question for next season. What an awesome project and idea. Good luck with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS slides just south of us right before it gets us mid week. Game on for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS slides just south of us right before it gets us mid week. Game on for that one. Need a little amplification of the PAC ridge to get that northern stream vort to catch up with that monster gulf storm. After seeing what happened to this weekends storm from a week out, i wouldn't get my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 GFS slides just south of us right before it gets us mid week. Game on for that one.We need to be in the crosshairs of the overunning precip to not rely on the complex evolution of the coastal or even runner There's a good bit support for that but we won't know for days. I'll only bite on the chance but wirh plenty of risk. Gfs shows a great evolution but we miss the lead precip bullseye. I take comfort missing to the south on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Tonight's GGEM is loltastic First some overunning Tuesday... then a Miller A appears late Thursday into Friday as it moves up the coast and deepens rapidly... we get smoked... at least I believe that is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Gggem destroys us and neatly hits us Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Gggem destroys us and neatly hits us Saturday destroys???? we're under the light to medium green for 2 panels.....that's probably not more than .5" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 destroys???? we're under the light to medium green for 2 panels.....that's probably not more than .5" qpf The destroys comes from late next week when a magical Miller A appears and deepens rapidly heading up the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Now we have the euro and gfs ops on board and the euro ensembles look really solid. It's not nearly as complicated as the weekend system. Confluence and pos tilt vort traversing with gulf feed. It's going to be another long week. The less complex the better for dc. Thats something I've learned over the years about snowstorms and dc. Overrunning is a good scenario, we'll all score some snow with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Surface too warm, though GGEM usually is, it still had a similar idea as the GFS....EURO shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Surface too warm, though GGEM usually is, it still had a similar idea as the GFS....EURO shortly... Uh... no its not. Its a bonafide snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Any snowmaps of that run guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Zwyts will be here with bad news soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k94 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Any snowmaps of that run guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Uh... no its not. Its a bonafide snowstorm Well, this is what I see...Not like it matters anyway, just saying IT IS above freezing at the surface. Dark Blue line is the freezing line It shows most of the snowfall in the burbs as it is too warm for I-95. Though it does look cold enough at 850, so I guess it would snow. Arguing about a CMC 201HR map though is pointless lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 If we can't score within the next 8 days, I quit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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