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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Based off today's Euro, GFS and GEFS, it looks like we get maybe 1 more shot at a snow event late next week and then the pattern looks like it breaks down.  Cold air retreats toward the pole with a +EPO/+AO/+NAO pattern.  

 

I agree but we'll see how the goa vortex looks in a week or 2. I have a feeling it weakens faster than modeled and the epo gives us a last hurrah. The big +AO signal is backing off as well. I think we'll have a 4-7 day warm spell but one last gasp to close the month. Just a wag

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Start paying attention the the nao. Op runs are picking up on a decent blocking signal. Last 2 gfs op runs showed some 534 and 540 closed ridging over greenland.

Ensemble runs have some in the mix but the means are still weak. The big +AO signal that was being touted is all but off the table (for now). Maybe HM can pop by and discuss. I'm not versed in strat stuff at all. But I am intigued by what I'm seeing.

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I guess I'll keep my thoughts to myself.

 

Why? Was my response too negative? Blocking showing up now just reminded me of last year. I guess I am not a huge fan of potential March snows, as they are few and far between and hard as hell to get. Somewhere around March 1 I hope for spring. Doesn't mean I don't a like a heads up it might be cold and blocky. Your thoughts are always welcome.

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Why? Was my response too negative? Blocking showing up now just reminded me of last year. I guess I am not a huge fan of potential March snows, as they are few and far between and hard as hell to get. Somewhere around March 1 I hope for spring. Doesn't mean I don't a like a heads up it might be cold and blocky. Your thoughts are always welcome.

 

we aren't even a week into February... what makes you think Bob was talking about March?

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we aren't even a week into February... what makes you think Bob was talking about March?

 

Fair enough. I guess because blocking modeled in the long range around here always seems to be delayed in arriving.  You are correct, a faulty assumption to assume that modeled blocking now will wait until March to show up.

 

My apologies to Bob for being overly negative. I do get grumpy when misses start to pile up for winter events.

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DT is not inventing this lol. The guidance shows a crappy pattern after next week. EPO ridge gone, and AO and NAO look positive. So yeah no mechanism to deliver arctic air with that set up.

Pattern does look bad! The mechanisms in place this winter are changing... Not hard to see it, and we have to face the music - seasons change! 

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Pattern does look bad! The mechanisms in place this winter are changing... Not hard to see it, and we have to face the music - seasons change! 

Would love to get a decent hit from this weekend "event", then a few days of cold afterwards. After that, I am fine with a pacific fire-hose, or hell let the SE ridge really flex its muscles and pump some air from the subtropics. 

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