CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well, one thing looks like a good bet now. The CFSv2 is going to be spot-on with it's February precipitation forecast and way off with it's temperature forecast! Despite jokes of warm/wet, cold/dry, I don't see how we get even close to the level of cold it was projecting a few days ago for this month, looking at the trends in the longer range GFS/GEFS. At least not this far south. Precipitation...well, of course it looks very active this upcoming week and seems to continue beyond that. Of course, I'd gladly eat my words in terms of the temperatures! It will get cold, relative to normal, second half of Feb. After the ss dries up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It will get cold, relative to normal, second half of Feb. After the ss dries up. Maybe so, but I'm not really convinced of that from what I've seen in the GFS and GEFS heading into the PD weekend or so. Looks like the flow relaxes/lifts for the most part, and it looks to me that we'd end up near or above normal for the month (or at least the 2nd half), if that pans out. Hope that's wrong, of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 P003 please, would be a dream HECS storm, a man can dream http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_12z/f180.html You mean P001... come on now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is still a universe away from the gfs @ h5 next weekend. Weekend storm is weaker/warmer. Pretty much a non-event for the entire EC. Nothing close to a bowling ball or chicago cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro ensembles look really tasty next weekend. Looks like an early transfer miller B. Mean has lp off obx/va capes @ hr 168. Jumps from KY. Not much reflection in OH valley from what I'm seeing. Maybe Wes can chime in here. I might be missing something but I like the look for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro ensembles look really tasty next weekend. Looks like an early transfer miller B. Mean has lp off obx/va capes @ hr 168. Jumps from KY. Not much reflection in OH valley from what I'm seeing. Maybe Wes can chime in here. I might be missing something but I like the look for sure. Hmm, interesting. Either the GFS is on to something...or on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Jb says euro is wrong due to it's usual biases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hmm, interesting. Either the GFS is on to something...or on something. Ensembles mean has a pretty prominent west based block. Delete the map if needed but take a good look first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 And this one. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Ensembles mean has a pretty prominent west based block. Delete the map if needed but take a good look first. epsh5.JPG Bob, that block is right where Wes says he likes to see High Pressure (western Greenland) EDIT: I forget the name of the Island he talks about west of Greenland, but the HP is right over it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Best event in 4 years next weekeend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Bob, that block is right where Wes says he likes to see High Pressure (western Greenland) EDIT: I forget the name of the Island he talks about west of Greenland, but the HP is right over it! Baffin. And the gefs mean shows a similar placement but weaker. All we can do is luck into it. That same area of higher heights is on the gefs builds back d12-16 on the means. GEFS as a whole is half decent trough the end. We'll fight temps but when don't we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Here's the gefs mean same period. This one piece of real estate is make or break for a good storm for our latitude. Take it away and we're wet instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hopefully we can get another "awesome pattern" to watch bust horribly. When can we go back to the torchy horrible pattern that gave us the last three snowstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hopefully we can get another "awesome pattern" to watch bust horribly. When can we go back to the torchy horrible pattern that gave us the last three snowstorms? Wes and Matt never thought the pattern was anywhere near "awesome." Who started that idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wes and Matt never thought the pattern was anywhere near "awesome." Who started that idea? I never said it was an awesome pattern. We're a week out and we have a single feature to save us. Just something to watch. A lot of eps members have snowy outcomes of various amounts. I expect snow to rain and a west track but a west track isn't a lock even if it's favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I never said it was an awesome pattern. We're a week out and we have a single feature to save us. Just something to watch. A lot of eps members have snowy outcomes of various amounts. I expect snow to rain and a west track but a west track isn't a lock even if it's favored. I wasn't thinking of you either, but there's been this persistent sarcastic "Great job on this supposed awesome pattern" type of posts the past couple of days. I was wondering who ever said it was going to be in the first place.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z gfs is showing the transient west basd block and the pv in a good spot in se canda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I like the 18z gfs run. The important features to help us are there in some fashion. Primary makes it to OH which kills redevelopment chances for us but it didn't get to the oh valley without a fight. Verbatim it's a great run because of the confluence we get a decent front end thump. Stop the primary in KY and we have a whole different story. Long ways off but taking a trip to chicago off the table is the first step. We're getting close to that one for now. ETA: and the lp crawls once it redevelops. Still not going to save us much but all these clues are important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wes and Matt never thought the pattern was anywhere near "awesome." Who started that idea? A couple of weeks ago folks were saying things about the awesome pattern. I don't feel like digging up the posts. Obviously, Wes, Bob, and Matt all caught on to the true nature of this pattern earlier than most and tempered expectations. I just think sometimes we put too much emphasis on certain features that appear to be good for snow around here in a vacuum but when combined with other rings get washed out. There is also a major component of sheer luck around here since we are often on the margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 A couple of weeks ago folks were saying things about the awesome pattern. I don't feel like digging up the posts. Obviously, Wes, Bob, and Matt all caught on to the true nature of this pattern earlier than most and tempered expectations. I just think sometimes we put too much emphasis on certain features that appear to be good for snow around here in a vacuum but when combined with other rings get washed out. There is also a major component of sheer luck around here since we are often on the margin. tomorrow is the 1st day of the new epic pattern and i have 6 inches in my forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 tomorrow is the 1st day of the new epic pattern and i have 6 inches in my forecast Once we saw pac moisture and gulf open in the lr I thought we all agreed we would walk the line and have mixy events and rain with a "possible" big storm. That's kinda what's happening. I might have been too optimistic but I'm kinda that way in general with life. So it bleeds into my affliction. But I'm always pretty reasonable...I think anyways.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The ice storm for here Tuesday night is still on all the models. Has been all weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Some absolute bombs here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The ice storm for here Tuesday night is still on all the models. Has been all weekend. A big bust tomorrow will make it all the more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS is looking AMAZING for the weekend storm, WAY more confluence, not as wrapped up with the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Uh....yall might wanna watch the GFS...uni might be back from the dead big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I would call it a wrap and pack up for the season of the gfs verifies. The clues keep piling up....but it should go West....but the wall says no..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Awesome h5 set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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