Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro ensembles have a nice signal for the front end of the storm next weekend. Lots of spread with the transfer. Nice to see the gfs/gefs continue to back way off a disaster cutter I'm going to go with 4-8" on the front then some mess while it transfers followed up by a deform ccb crushing. I'll fine tune later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like about .63 before truncation..more after... We will get that in 5 hours tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We will get that in 5 hours tomorrow Lol....one at a time brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Bob, is the Euro warming us up during and after the transfer? On wxbell it looked like the 32 line moved NW of the cities during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6z gfs looking nice for sat night/sunday Looks like about .63 before truncation..more after... Not sure if I totally agree, but perhaps it's better for your area being farther west. From what I can tell on the 06Z GFS verbatim, it's a Miller-B type of development, we get some decent front-end before a change over to rain (probably some ice too). Looking at the 2-m temperature line and the 850-mb temperatures, both go above freezing. The 850-mb low stays to our west...there's a hint of a secondary re-development near the coast at 850-mb, but it appears to happen too late. The precip you see before truncation would likely be falling while it's still above freezing; after that point, the storm is pretty well gone. Either way, it's certainly a close call (especially west of the DC area). Not as good as what 00Z showed, but at least still in the ballpark which is all we can hope for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We will get that in 5 hours tomorrow Except tomorrow's snow (if we get it) will be gone in less than a day with the Tuesday/Wednesday rain event. Don't sneeze, you might miss it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Bob, is the Euro warming us up during and after the transfer? On wxbell it looked like the 32 line moved NW of the cities during this time. Big spread so we just don't know. The mean implies that more members favor a less favorable transfer (which makes sense). I'm not remotely concerned at this lead. All guidance is moving towards a period of front end snow. That's my focus for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro ensembles have a nice signal for the front end of the storm next weekend. Lots of spread with the transfer. Nice to see the gfs/gefs continue to back way off a disaster cutter I'm going to go with 4-8" on the front then some mess while it transfers followed up by a deform ccb crushing. I'll fine tune later I only can access the lousy "free" maps on the ECMWF site, which don't give you much and they're at 24-h intervals. Good for a very general overview (I suppose), but you miss a lot. On the Euro...or the GFS for that matter...what is it that makes you see the potential for deformation band formation in this area after the transfer? Not questioning that analysis, just trying to see where it is since I don't get those details from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Big spread so we just don't know. The mean implies that more members favor a less favorable transfer (which makes sense). I'm not remotely concerned at this lead. All guidance is moving towards a period of front end snow. That's my focus for now. Yeah, this could be our play, for now. The thing I do like is the fact that the models have backed off on the cutter/Chicago track. Though I'm certainly not saying that's off the table, it seems the trend now is some kind of re-development and good stuff on the front end at least, with the potential it won't get totally washed away afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I only can access the lousy "free" maps on the ECMWF site, which don't give you much and they're at 24-h intervals. Good for a very general overview (I suppose), but you miss a lot. On the Euro...or the GFS for that matter...what is it that makes you see the potential for deformation band formation in this area after the transfer? Not questioning that analysis, just trying to see where it is since I don't get those details from the Euro. I was kinda joking about the deform stuff. It's all comes down to confluence and transient blocking and how hard it can press against the storm. Get the primary to hit a wall in KY and transfer off of nc and we jump for joy. A more typical oh valley/Delmarva gig and we take what we can get up front. I would say odds favor the latter because it's how we roll most of the time Were just not going to know until midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Going to be a fun week, DC can do well in these setups as the bowling ball comes East. Hypothetically we'd probably go over, but how awesome would it be if somehow the ULL was able to track East of us. 6z GFS was so close to it. I remember PDII I was sitting in Philly watching you guys get clobbered at the overrunning precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just hilarious man. Of all people to post a porn map after calling weatherboy dangerous lol Weatherboy did post the Euro control....total accum snowfall over 10 days, and made it sound like it was one epic storm. I'm sure that put his many followers in Turkey in a panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Going to be a fun week, DC can do well in these setups as the bowling ball comes East. Hypothetically we'd probably go over, but how awesome would it be if somehow the ULL was able to track East of us. 6z GFS was so close to it. I remember PDII I was sitting in Philly watching you guys get clobbered at the overrunning precip. Philly of course got pummeled by PD-II as well, as did the entire coast. Or did you mean prior to it reaching Philly, watching it come up on the radar? It was pretty incredible here, the snow literally just started pouring from the sky in the pre-dawn hours on that Sunday, as if someone turned on a machine. I sure hope it's a fun week, with a good outcome for next weekend. Got to temper hopes somewhat, but it's looking a whole lot more interesting than it did the other day. Hope the trends continue favorably, it's going to be tricky working out the transfer (assuming that's the correct solution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Big spread so we just don't know. The mean implies that more members favor a less favorable transfer (which makes sense). I'm not remotely concerned at this lead. All guidance is moving towards a period of front end snow. That's my focus for now. Would line up with the way most big storms work around our area. Front end thump to sleet then back to snow. Its just how it is around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro/ cmc and gfs look to be trending colder and more frozen for Wed . Primary seems to be getting weakened sooner and sooner resulting in earlier transfer. They definitely are. If we put a decent snow pack down tomorrow that could help keep us a bit cooler on Tues. Last night's Euro gave northern MD 1-2 inches before changing to zr. I'm not sure it can get any better than that in terms of front end snow with this storm but we'll see. Previous runs gave us no snow at all so it's definitely improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 lol, now the GFS has Chicago getting the weekend storm. It does give us a front end mess because of damming but there are no guarantees on snow as the warmest temps may be above 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 lol, now the GFS has Chicago getting the weekend storm. It does give us a front end mess because of damming but there are no guarantees on snow as the warmest temps may be above 850. yup, just saw that. Went from cutter, to nice coastal to way way west cutter. Starting to put all of my chips into this one since tomorrow is literally a wash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lol, out at breakfast and our server said , so, is it gonna snow tomorrow, and I said further north the better. Then she said, what about that two or three feet later in the week. Holy hell , the power of viral misinformation. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just your average 1000 mile shift on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The fact that the GFS has the ULL over Chicago and you still manage to get frozen precip is good news....The 12z GFS handled the energy in Canada differently and started to develop the low our west at a more northern location....Long way to go until we have any idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I will say, it is a ton of moisture before we flip to non frozen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Gfs looked like one of its many ensemble solutions. Hardly a surprise. We'll get 4 new looks a day for a bit. Euro carries the most weight at this lead imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Gfs looked like one of its many ensemble solutions. Hardly a surprise. We'll get 4 new looks a day for a bit. Euro carries the most weight at this lead imo. I still think the odds are that the low goes to our west and any reformation along the coast will be to our north. Still no blocking to speak of. I've never liked the coastal idea. I don't think the pattern supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I still think the odds are that the low goes to our west and any reformation along the coast will be to our north. Still no blocking to speak of. I've never liked the coastal idea. I don't think the pattern supports it. Agree. Front end and dryslot with cold atecedent is fine with me. There are hints of weak west based nao ridging. Worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wes I see higher heights over Greenland around Day 5-6, psuedo block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lol, out at breakfast and our server said , so, is it gonna snow tomorrow, and I said further north the better. Then she said, what about that two or three feet later in the week. Holy hell , the power of viral misinformation. Sent from my iPhone Yeah speculation and misinformation about the weather has only been around for the last couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 P003 please, would be a dream HECS storm, a man can dream http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_12z/f180.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 P003 please, would be a dream HECS storm, a man can dream http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_12z/f180.html Seeing anything epic on the horizon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 P003 please, would be a dream HECS storm, a man can dream http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_12z/f180.html Sadly it looks warm... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well, one thing looks like a good bet now. The CFSv2 is going to be spot-on with it's February precipitation forecast and way off with it's temperature forecast! Despite jokes of warm/wet, cold/dry, I don't see how we get even close to the level of cold it was projecting a few days ago for this month, looking at the trends in the longer range GFS/GEFS. At least not this far south. Precipitation...well, of course it looks very active this upcoming week and seems to continue beyond that. Of course, I'd gladly eat my words in terms of the temperatures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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