Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looking farther out, it sure seems like the GFS has been wanting to "end" winter around or just after President's Day weekend. That's shown up at least a few times now. Hard to tell if that's something permanent, or a temporary oscillation in the flow to be followed by a better look to close out the month into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You love bowling balls. Last one made us cry though except for midlo You're referring to the "Noquester" event on March 6, correct? Forgot that one was a bowling ball like system as well. (EDIT: Looked like I had a double post before for some reason, deleted one of them, and they both got zapped! So had to just re-post this!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That would be the Noquester event you're referring to, correct (Mar. 6)? Yeah, that was also a bowling ball as I recall now.Yep, but it was a different animal. It originated in Canada and not the west coast. This one is intriguing because it closes off in the middle of the country and then just crawls practically due east. Strong hp and favorable heights above us just say no to a cut. The vort is strong but has no option but to close off and do its own thing.18z gefs has some closed h5 solutions but not the best outcomes. All we can do is tuck this run into our memory banks and see what happens over the next 4 days or so. Seems very low prob for now. Heck, next weekend only has one thing that seems high prob....a big cold hp and decent antecedent airmass. But if it runs away like a scared kid then we won't be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yep, but it was a different animal. It originated in Canada and not the west coast. This one is intriguing because it closes off in the middle of the country and then just crawls practically due east. Strong hp and favorable heights above us just say no to a cut. The vort is strong but has no option but to close off and do its own thing. 18z gefs has some closed h5 solutions but not the best outcomes. All we can do is tuck this run into our memory banks and see what happens over the next 4 days or so. Seems very low prob for now. Heck, next weekend only has one thing that seems high prob....a big cold hp and decent antecedent airmass. But if it runs away like a scared kid then we won't be happy. Yeah, I noticed that there was more separation of the main trough, that vort really dug farther south on this run compared to previously (it seems). Which from what I can tell appears to help out the confluence for us to the north, and as you say the system can then only close off and move east, with redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 looks like the cutter option may be gone now. the two models who had big cutters have now lost it(GFS and GGEM). It may be big storm or nothing type scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 looks like the cutter option may be gone now. the two models who had big cutters have now lost it(GFS and GGEM). It may be big storm or nothing type scenario Oh, no you don't! I think that option is definitely not gone. Or, at the least, a crappy Miller-B that screws us is still well in the realm of probability here. (EDIT: That all said, I sure hope we're seeing a trend toward a better looking chance here.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If we are gonna get something big. the 2/9-2/12 period might be our best shot. Euro and GFS both have the look of a big storm, though not quite the same paths getting there. Looks like there will be some decent west based blocking around that time and huge height anomalies NW of Alaska. All we need is some timing and enough of a block to keep that big high in place so the southern energy takes the low road. Could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GEFS ensembles mean is a big coastal at 192 hours. No lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 1002 low east of Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Big time signal on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We've come full circle . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The biggest difference between the ECMWF and GFS is in the stratosphere and how they handle the PV. The GFS suite for a full 24hrs' worth of runs has suggested a stronger stratospheric disturbance and west -NAO. If this feature is legitimate, this fantasy-land, overexposed storm will actually become a real possibility. Let's see if the ECMWF/EPS head in that direction. Watch the PV - NAO sector ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Watch weatherboy be right and all hell break loose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Watch weatherboy be right and all hell break loose He will turn into the new Foot's forecast if that happens . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Watch weatherboy be right and all hell break loose I'm totally rooting for that man. Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 00Z Euro looks like typical miller B screwjob for Mid Atlantic next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Dt calls weatherboy out for posting a weather porn map but then he does the same thing one day after he cancelled the feb 9 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 00Z Euro looks like typical miller B screwjob for Mid Atlantic next weekend. Disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Dt calls weatherboy out for posting a weather porn map but then he does the same thing one day after he cancelled the feb 9 storm Amazing isn't it? Meanwhile, Maue laughs his way to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Amazing isn't it? Meanwhile, Maue laughs his way to the bank. He is the happiest guy from this whole thing. He will probably keep posting these crazy control runs on twitter now that he is raking it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Amazing isn't it? Meanwhile, Maue laughs his way to the bank. Just hilarious man. Of all people to post a porn map after calling weatherboy dangerous lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 DisagreeI hope you are right, but I hate seeing that low go up the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So does anyone know what the euro actually showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Overall, The gfs and Euro models for Feb.8/9 are looking a lot better than 24 hrs ago. Hope the trends continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I hope you are right, but I hate seeing that low go up the Apps. Miller b screwjobs are whiffs. Look at the thermals. Front ends of miller b's have produced many times. This is a wet system with a cold antecedent airmass. And at this lead who knows if it's a miller anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Miller b screwjobs are whiffs. Look at the thermals. Front ends of miller b's have produced many times. This is a wet system with a cold antecedent airmass. And at this lead who knows if it's a miller anything It's a miller Reggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Accuwx mos numbers show Sat thing as a rainstorm.....and it's not even close imho do the Wxbell maps show otherwise because I know the Wunderground maps show snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6z gfs looking nice for sat night/sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6z gfs looking nice for sat night/sunday A little dry though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 A little dry though right? Looks like about .63 before truncation..more after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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