wxmeddler Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Dave is saying the EUro is good for Feb 8-9? Solid Miller A, 992 off just off NJ Coast. A bit too inland for DC, rakes N+W (HGR,etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Solid Miller A, 992 off just off NJ Coast. A bit too inland for DC, rakes N+W (HGR,etc.) huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 huh? That was the 00z run, I have the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Dave is saying the EUro is good for Feb 8-9? there are 2 storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Sorry guys, Monday mauler appears to be a lost cause....for most. Next window of opportunity appears to be mid February. However, thanks to positive AO, our cold supply will be limited during these events. Is this for 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Is it just me or GEFS trending colder for the Feb 9 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Is it just me or GEFS trending colder for the Feb 9 event? The entire evolution of the period is complicated and very much unknown. We are going to see all kinds of looks. The euro has been showing multiple pieces ejecting for a couple days. Now the gfs is going that way. Heights to our north and progress of the vort are unresolved. The period will likely produce frozen precip here. Beyond that is tricky but a nice all snow coastal is very low probability as it stands right now. Gefs members show a myriad of possibilities. Expect every op run to toss out something new every 6-12 hours for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 00 Z GFS (always wanted to do that) A healthy foot of snow within 192 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well... thats a new wrinkle GFS tonight keeps a nice 1040H in Quebec and away to snow we go... though the transfer takes a LONG time... its a nice Day 8 solution from the 00z GFS tonight... very snowy... too bad it will change at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 And of course 2 minutes after I post the gfs spits out a perfect miller b for our latitude. It's a stout hp in front. That's why I feel odds of frozen are solid. Confluence and heights north of us will bounce all over. Lets just relish the run for now and expect it to be gone in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 a miller B developing over coastal SC? Don't think so... Glad to see a snowy solution, even with my location going over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Welcome back unicorn says 0z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 UNICORN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 a miller B developing over coastal SC? Don't think so... Glad to see a snowy solution, even with my location going over to rain. If a bowling ball closed ul low actually happens then it's a viable solution overall. That big 1040hp gets locked in for a bit and puts the brakes on an easy cut. The period is still wide open but tricky as F. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well... thats a new wrinkle GFS tonight keeps a nice 1040H in Quebec and away to snow we go... though the transfer takes a LONG time... its a nice Day 8 solution from the 00z GFS tonight... very snowy... too bad it will change at 06z Yeah, have to say now *that* wasn't exactly what I expected. In a good way! I thought something might be up when it seemed that high was in a better place and the precip was coming in more from the south. That, and the vort was really diving south compared to previously. And of course 2 minutes after I post the gfs spits out a perfect miller b for our latitude. It's a stout hp in front. That's why I feel odds of frozen are solid. Confluence and heights north of us will bounce all over. Lets just relish the run for now and expect it to be gone in 6 hours. That confluence seemed to be getting stronger in the last couple or so cycles of the GFS, if I've interpreted things somewhat correctly. I believe others noted the Euro had better confluence the past few runs compared to the GFS. So this could be a trend, or could just be bouncing back and forth. But after pushing the low as far west as Chicago, it's backed off from that extreme (I think there was even a run where the surface low appeared to actually move *northwest*, maybe the time it ended up in Chicago). It may...make that probably will...change again, but I'm glad to see that a good solution can still be depicted in the op GFS. It was getting pretty bad seeing a cutter time after time the past couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Gfs says it starts snowing at 180 with heavy stuff moving out at 204, 24hr event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If a bowling ball closed ul low actually happens then it's a viable solution overall. That big 1040hp gets locked in for a bit and puts the brakes on an easy cut. The period is still wide open but tricky as F. Good times I agree, as modeled. Just have a hard time seeing that in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm curious to know how much the stronger/wetter trends in the Monday system are influencing the Unicorn storm downstream, for the better. Of course, there's always an interaction (butterfly wings and all that), but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Gfs says it starts snowing at 180 with heavy stuff moving out at 204, 24hr event Verbatim it's a large area-wide >1.25" QPF event, which would be all snow. Would be nice, but wake me up if/when it's reality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If unicorn comes back it will more than make up for Mondays coming debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yes please to 1.5" QPF all snow. If only it wasn't 200 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Actually matches up pretty well with the 18z ensemble depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Verbatim, that's 10-20" area wide.. Hand off is perfect and it's ripping dendrites in the Upper 10's. Oh baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If unicorn comes back it will more than make up for Mondays coming debacle. Agreed 100%! I'd add Wednesday's washout to that as well, but I think we all had more or less written that one off some time ago. The Monday event is truly turning into a disappointment except for far north and west locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If unicorn comes back it will more than make up for Mondays coming debacle. It would be better in a way for the Monday system to score after the clown map messes this past week, but the GFS right now looks too perfect for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Verbatim, that's 10-20" area wide.. Hand off is perfect and it's ripping dendrites in the Upper 10's. Oh baby. It's porn but closing off h5 and crawling like that will need practically unanimous model support before it should even be discussed. It's a burp and a fart for now. H5 doesn't close and crawl and we get a mixed event to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Initiating unicorn ban sequence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's porn but closing off h5 and crawling like that will need practically unanimous model support before it should even be discussed. It's a burp and a fart for now. H5 doesn't close and crawl and we get a mixed event to rain. But it's a rainbow Unicorn fart! Joking aside, I agree...it's model porn at its finest, about the best case look right there. If we see a real trend toward this, then game on. Until then, well, we can always hope. The one thing I will say, from discussion I've seen in here, didn't the Euro have some kind of secondary storm that developed off the coast (like a day later)? So maybe in some distant way, the GFS solution tonight is a bit similar. Just throwing that out there as an honest question, even if it sounds a bit weenieish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Initiating unicorn ban sequence You love bowling balls. Last one made us cry though except for midlo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Does anyone have a 12z EURO snowfall map for the Unicorn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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