Huffwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 CMC has a great signature CAD signal, despite hugging all the snow up in the Mason Dixon line area, would be ice even into NE Georgia. Next weekend-- late Friday into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 For Feb 8/9, the 6z GFS is starting to show some coastal development off Georgia ...if we can get that energy transfer ...bombs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 EURO had big POSITIVE changes for the unicorn storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Difference between the GFS & EURO is staggering; I don't have precip maps, but it looks like EURO delays the storm a bit, the HP wins out, and DC to Philly get hit pretty damn hard. GFS goes way inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 For Feb 8/9, the 6z GFS is starting to show some coastal development off Georgia ...if we can get that energy transfer ...bombs away. It goes to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It goes to Chicago. In this pattern I think the euro coastal is pretty unlikely (famous last words). Its evolution is dependent on a transient feature providing confluence which forces the low to track south of us. Looking at how wound up the euro 500 is over the MS Valley it's hard to not envision a low at least tracking northward into the OH valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It goes to Chicago. It's wild how different the euro op is handling the late week storm. And the EPS agrees. I posted the pbp in the wrong thread last night of the op euro. Ensembles show the same 2 waves of precip. First one overnight friday into saturday with a pretty good cold look (cold meaning just enough to think snow). the next wave on the heels is warmer with a cad signal. Absolutely a galaxy away from what the gfs is saying. If the euro didn't have what appears to be solid support from the EPS I would totally discount it. It's a war for now. We'll see how she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 In this pattern I think the euro coastal is pretty unlikely (famous last words). Its evolution is dependent on a transient feature providing confluence which forces the low to track south of us. Looking at how wound up the euro 500 is over the MS Valley it's hard to not envision a low at least tracking northward into the OH valley. Wes, I was reading up on confluence and what it means for DC snowstorms. It seems all the big ones had some sort of confluence north of us to force the coastal south of us and bring it up the coast. Is confluence the same as a 50/50 low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wes, I was reading up on confluence and what it means for DC snowstorms. It seems all the big ones had some sort of confluence north of us to force the coastal south of us and bring it up the coast. Is confluence the same as a 50/50 low? 50/50 low generates confluence. It the storm amplifies too early it will weaken this, slide the HP out to sea and pull the storm north. Better for the upper level trof to cut off from the flow and build confluence farther west. Jan 96 is a good example of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sorry guys, Monday mauler appears to be a lost cause....for most. Next window of opportunity appears to be mid February. However, thanks to positive AO, our cold supply will be limited during these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sorry guys, Monday mauler appears to be a lost cause....for most. Next window of opportunity appears to be mid February. However, thanks to positive AO, our cold supply will be limited during these events. Thanks for letting us know... we wouldn't know without you about Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sorry guys, Monday mauler appears to be a lost cause....for most. Next window of opportunity appears to be mid February. However, thanks to positive AO, our cold supply will be limited during these events. Thanks for breaking it down. I'm sure I am not the only one to appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sorry guys, Monday mauler appears to be a lost cause....for most. Next window of opportunity appears to be mid February. However, thanks to positive AO, our cold supply will be limited during these events. Maybe for you, but most of us don't live on a tiny peninsula right by the ocean.. now run off and enjoy your rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 50/50 low generates confluence. It the storm amplifies too early it will weaken this, slide the HP out to sea and pull the storm north. Better for the upper level trof to cut off from the flow and build confluence farther west. Jan 96 is a good example of this. A big block with a 50 50 upper low under it will produce confluence and force a low south even with early amplification. The Feb 10th 2013 event is a great example. The upper low got into OH northwest of us and then was forced to our south by the massive block. That's why I'm partial to having a big ridge over southern greenland and a closed low south of it near Nova scotia. Least those are my thoughts on the subject. Without that block, then you're right, early amplification generally is a killer as it builds heights to the east of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sorry guys, Monday mauler appears to be a lost cause....for most. Next window of opportunity appears to be mid February. However, thanks to positive AO, our cold supply will be limited during these events. Are you really sorry? Remember what happened to the dude in the movie Roadhouse who told his boss he was sorry about losing Dalton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 euro, snow to rain/ZR miller B friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 euro, snow to rain/ZR miller B friday night Trend to the GFS? Some 12z GEFS members actually looked more like the Euro from last night...at least in terms of more southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Trend to the GFS? Some 12z GEFS members actually looked more like the Euro from last night...at least in terms of more southern track. they kind of look similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 they kind of look similar It's holding the 2 wave idea. Second lp riding up on the heels sucks for us but that progression is pretty different. The speed of the first shot of precip may help us get a numbers padder if you measure quick enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Feb 9-10 looks interesting on the Euro. I am sure it will evolve to something much different but verbatim it destroys C VA, up to SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Feb 9-10 looks interesting on the Euro. I am sure it will evolve to something much different but verbatim it destroys C VA, up to SNJ. Does the 2nd wave get as far west with snow as Roanoke? This is 2 runs in a row with this type of solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Feb 9-10 looks interesting on the Euro. I am sure it will evolve to something much different but verbatim it destroys C VA, up to SNJ. so does the Wednesday storm... wow. I'm surprised more people aren't talking about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 so does the Wednesday storm... wow. I'm surprised more people aren't talking about it What is it showing for wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What is it showing for wed? Looks much colder and wetter, snowy for central MD and northern VA before the changeover. PA gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks much colder and wetter, snowy for central MD before the changeover. PA gets crushed. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 For BWI, over a half inch of precipitation Tuesday night with 850 mb temperatures warming from 31 to 40 degrees between 1 AM and 7 Am. Surface temperatures around 30 overnight and warming ... but slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Anyone see ggem. It lost the big cutter...it actually lost the entire storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18Z GFS again showing significant icing for western MD and Eastern WV valley locations Tuesday night. That solution keeps coming up on models. If we can lay down some snow on Monday, maybe it will be 28 instead of 31 degree FZRA overnight. ETA: And, the model does it again on Saturday for the same areas. Long duration ice storm with 24 hours of freezing precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Something weird going on with my wunderground forecast for the week after this one. I mean, I hope it's right, but no way.... Tuesday Night Partly cloudy with a few scattered snow flurries. Low 22F. Winds light and variable. Wednesday Mostly cloudy with scattered snow flurries mainly during the morning. High 38F. Winds light and variable. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy in the evening then scattered snow flurries possible after midnight. Low near 25F. Winds light and variable. Thursday Periods of light snow. High 36F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. About one inch of snow expected. Thursday Night Cloudy with some light snow. Low 22F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. About one inch of snow expected. Friday Cloudy with some light snow. High 33F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 50%. Snow accumulations less than one inch. Friday Night Periods of light snow. Low 16F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. Saturday Light snow during the morning will taper off as a few snow showers during the afternoon. High around 35F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. Snow accumulations less than one inch. Saturday Night Becoming partly cloudy later with any flurries or snow showers ending by midnight. Low 22F. Winds WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Dave is saying the EUro is good for Feb 8-9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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