wxmeddler Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Verbatim, that's 10-20" area wide.. Hand off is perfect and it's ripping dendrites in the Upper 10's. Oh baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If unicorn comes back it will more than make up for Mondays coming debacle. Agreed 100%! I'd add Wednesday's washout to that as well, but I think we all had more or less written that one off some time ago. The Monday event is truly turning into a disappointment except for far north and west locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If unicorn comes back it will more than make up for Mondays coming debacle. It would be better in a way for the Monday system to score after the clown map messes this past week, but the GFS right now looks too perfect for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Verbatim, that's 10-20" area wide.. Hand off is perfect and it's ripping dendrites in the Upper 10's. Oh baby. It's porn but closing off h5 and crawling like that will need practically unanimous model support before it should even be discussed. It's a burp and a fart for now. H5 doesn't close and crawl and we get a mixed event to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Initiating unicorn ban sequence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's porn but closing off h5 and crawling like that will need practically unanimous model support before it should even be discussed. It's a burp and a fart for now. H5 doesn't close and crawl and we get a mixed event to rain. But it's a rainbow Unicorn fart! Joking aside, I agree...it's model porn at its finest, about the best case look right there. If we see a real trend toward this, then game on. Until then, well, we can always hope. The one thing I will say, from discussion I've seen in here, didn't the Euro have some kind of secondary storm that developed off the coast (like a day later)? So maybe in some distant way, the GFS solution tonight is a bit similar. Just throwing that out there as an honest question, even if it sounds a bit weenieish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Initiating unicorn ban sequence You love bowling balls. Last one made us cry though except for midlo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Does anyone have a 12z EURO snowfall map for the Unicorn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looking farther out, it sure seems like the GFS has been wanting to "end" winter around or just after President's Day weekend. That's shown up at least a few times now. Hard to tell if that's something permanent, or a temporary oscillation in the flow to be followed by a better look to close out the month into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You love bowling balls. Last one made us cry though except for midlo You're referring to the "Noquester" event on March 6, correct? Forgot that one was a bowling ball like system as well. (EDIT: Looked like I had a double post before for some reason, deleted one of them, and they both got zapped! So had to just re-post this!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That would be the Noquester event you're referring to, correct (Mar. 6)? Yeah, that was also a bowling ball as I recall now.Yep, but it was a different animal. It originated in Canada and not the west coast. This one is intriguing because it closes off in the middle of the country and then just crawls practically due east. Strong hp and favorable heights above us just say no to a cut. The vort is strong but has no option but to close off and do its own thing.18z gefs has some closed h5 solutions but not the best outcomes. All we can do is tuck this run into our memory banks and see what happens over the next 4 days or so. Seems very low prob for now. Heck, next weekend only has one thing that seems high prob....a big cold hp and decent antecedent airmass. But if it runs away like a scared kid then we won't be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yep, but it was a different animal. It originated in Canada and not the west coast. This one is intriguing because it closes off in the middle of the country and then just crawls practically due east. Strong hp and favorable heights above us just say no to a cut. The vort is strong but has no option but to close off and do its own thing. 18z gefs has some closed h5 solutions but not the best outcomes. All we can do is tuck this run into our memory banks and see what happens over the next 4 days or so. Seems very low prob for now. Heck, next weekend only has one thing that seems high prob....a big cold hp and decent antecedent airmass. But if it runs away like a scared kid then we won't be happy. Yeah, I noticed that there was more separation of the main trough, that vort really dug farther south on this run compared to previously (it seems). Which from what I can tell appears to help out the confluence for us to the north, and as you say the system can then only close off and move east, with redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 looks like the cutter option may be gone now. the two models who had big cutters have now lost it(GFS and GGEM). It may be big storm or nothing type scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 looks like the cutter option may be gone now. the two models who had big cutters have now lost it(GFS and GGEM). It may be big storm or nothing type scenario Oh, no you don't! I think that option is definitely not gone. Or, at the least, a crappy Miller-B that screws us is still well in the realm of probability here. (EDIT: That all said, I sure hope we're seeing a trend toward a better looking chance here.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If we are gonna get something big. the 2/9-2/12 period might be our best shot. Euro and GFS both have the look of a big storm, though not quite the same paths getting there. Looks like there will be some decent west based blocking around that time and huge height anomalies NW of Alaska. All we need is some timing and enough of a block to keep that big high in place so the southern energy takes the low road. Could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GEFS ensembles mean is a big coastal at 192 hours. No lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 1002 low east of Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Big time signal on the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We've come full circle . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The biggest difference between the ECMWF and GFS is in the stratosphere and how they handle the PV. The GFS suite for a full 24hrs' worth of runs has suggested a stronger stratospheric disturbance and west -NAO. If this feature is legitimate, this fantasy-land, overexposed storm will actually become a real possibility. Let's see if the ECMWF/EPS head in that direction. Watch the PV - NAO sector ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Watch weatherboy be right and all hell break loose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Watch weatherboy be right and all hell break loose He will turn into the new Foot's forecast if that happens . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Watch weatherboy be right and all hell break loose I'm totally rooting for that man. Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 00Z Euro looks like typical miller B screwjob for Mid Atlantic next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Dt calls weatherboy out for posting a weather porn map but then he does the same thing one day after he cancelled the feb 9 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 00Z Euro looks like typical miller B screwjob for Mid Atlantic next weekend. Disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Dt calls weatherboy out for posting a weather porn map but then he does the same thing one day after he cancelled the feb 9 storm Amazing isn't it? Meanwhile, Maue laughs his way to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Amazing isn't it? Meanwhile, Maue laughs his way to the bank. He is the happiest guy from this whole thing. He will probably keep posting these crazy control runs on twitter now that he is raking it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Amazing isn't it? Meanwhile, Maue laughs his way to the bank. Just hilarious man. Of all people to post a porn map after calling weatherboy dangerous lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 DisagreeI hope you are right, but I hate seeing that low go up the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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