WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 WinterWxLuvr hates the negative posts. I hope Sunday night drills everybody between Charlottesville and Danville. Just for the humor of what would be posted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 hr 189 of the GFS is USA moisture to the max! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=189&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 hr 189 of the GFS is USA moisture to the max! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=189&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0Only thing missing from that setup is either a 50/50 or -nao to lock in that high. Both are gone on today's runs so it cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 If that storm happens as depicted now, it's going to be painful. A blue bomb drenching us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 If that storm happens as depicted now, it's going to be painful. A blue bomb drenching us. It's a good thing we're just over a week away. Cut the qpf in half with a track going up the coast and we'll all be happy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm not feeling it for Feb. -EPO seems modest at best and every other relevant teleconnection looks atrocious. It's not unusual for a frigid January to be followed by an uneventful February. I expect the next month to go the way of Feb 1977, Feb 1985, Feb 2004, and Feb 2009, not necessarily with the pattern, but in terms of sensible weather and contrast to the preceding January. We've had a good run these past 1-2 months and I'm thankful for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That entire run of the 18Z GFS was atrocious...from end to end. Ugh! Well, one run, so who knows. Interspersed cold behind rainy events that all go north of us. Then it essentially breaks things down quickly and we end up with Pacific flow as heights lift toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 18z GFS has at least some frozen precip for all three events here next week. I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 18z GFS has at least some frozen precip for all three events here next week. I'm all in. image.jpg me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That's a good hand for blackjack matt. I recommend a double down with dealer showing a 2 through 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That's a good hand for blackjack matt. I recommend a double down with dealer showing a 2 through 7. I would have recommended doing with his hand that he's already doing with the cards....<folding> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wes, what do you make of the height patterns d11-15 on the global ensemble means? It's an unusual look for me. I already know it's flawed for snow but looks like good consensus for a solid -wpo/+epo pac pattern. The ridging in the sw and off of the socal coast keep us from torching. Mean trough axis seems to be centered east of the MS river. Looks like a wet period but anything wrapped goes nw and anything weak can slide? Am i thinking clearly? I'm not sure, one thing that might eventually help is the vortex that drops into the gulf of AK. If it retrogrades a bit then we might get a a west coast ridge. not a full latitude one but it would help keep us from torching. I guess that is pretty much what you were saying. The ridge doesn't looks strong enough to stop pac systems for riding the ridge and dropping into a trough to its east so it might not be a totally band pattern except we still aren't getting much Atlantic love. Have to hope the neg aO holds on, it euro ensemble but not so much on the gefs forecasts of it (at least last I looked). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I said at one point this morning I felt good about the runs today. Oops. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 me too Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Im in......... the wrong hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 euro control is sort of like the euro. It hates the feb 7 Friday wave but there is a trailing wave that it blows up into a monster for Feb 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not sure, one thing that might eventually help is the vortex that drops into the gulf of AK. If it retrogrades a bit then we might get a a west coast ridge. not a full latitude one but it would help keep us from torching. I guess that is pretty much what you were saying. The ridge doesn't looks strong enough to stop pac systems for riding the ridge and dropping into a trough to its east so it might not be a totally band pattern except we still aren't getting much Atlantic love. Have to hope the neg aO holds on, it euro ensemble but not so much on the gefs forecasts of it (at least last I looked). Yes, that's what I was thinking irt losing the epo and replacing it wirh a goa vortex and still finding a way to not go into a long duration warm spell. Losing a week+ of any chance in mid-late Feb is a writing on the wall scenario I think a safe guess is relatively brief crap spell as the epo likely reloads again before the month is out. A last hurrah of sorts. It's hard to bet against it considering the last 3 months of persistence. Prior to the crap spell, d10-15 will at least have a chance with Pac energy up and over with cold air nearby. Timing and luck is always better during active periods. It looks like the conus will be active for the next 2 weeks. The Atlantic prob won't come around anytime soon. Maybe transient help but nothing stable. Hasn't worked all year so betting against it is tough as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just hoping to see this in a short while ---> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Snow to ice to rain (and a ton of rain). Subject to countless changes. Pretty stout hp moving out. Odds for frozen pretty decent but track still awful on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Snow to ice to rain (and a ton of rain). Subject to countless changes. Pretty stout hp moving out. Odds for frozen pretty decent but track still awful on the gfs. It's still trying to figure out the Monday storm:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Snow to ice to rain (and a ton of rain). Subject to countless changes. Pretty stout hp moving out. Odds for frozen pretty decent but track still awful on the gfs. Yeah, waste of a great high pressure. You couldn't ask for something better than a 1040+ mb one like what's shown, but as you say it gets shunted out. And it's in the teens to near 20 overnight right before it moves in, too, which makes it all the more galling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah, waste of a great high pressure. You couldn't ask for something better than a 1040+ mb one like what's shown, but as you say it gets shunted out. And it's in the teens to near 20 overnight right before it moves in, too, which makes it all the more galling! Such a moisture laden system as well.. qpf max of like 3.5 in W TN. Would think some of that pushes in soon via normal over running rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 We need to get some semblance of blocking back on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 We need to get some semblance of blocking back on the models If we had blocking/50-50, the next storm would be 2/10 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If we had blocking/50-50, the next storm would be 2/10 all over again. If the redskins has better players and if M's wife..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If we had blocking/50-50, the next storm would be 2/10 all over again. Yeah, pretty much I think! The 00Z GFS after the non-unicorn storm has a sort of wacky evolution through the rest of its run. It actually looks kind of interesting for some reason. At least it's not the train wreck the 18Z showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If the redskins has better players and if M's wife..... ...and the old saying, if wishes were horses then beggars would ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 ...and the old saying, if wishes were horses then beggars would ride! If ifs and buts were candy and nuts...oh what a party we'd have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If the redskins has better players and if M's wife..... The Redskins would still lose and.....still dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's still trying to figure out the Monday storm:) Details are foggy but at least the airmass leading in is solid. If we're not going to have a transient block then it would be nice to see a front running shield in here quicker. Could easily happen. I'm in numbers padding mode. As long as I can measure before it washes I'm fine. No matter which way you slice it, the event should kick the mid week storms ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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