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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Heh, not sure about the Monday thing but the euro destroys us d8-10. Now I know why the ensembles were off the charts bullish yesterday afternoon. Awful nice seeing the gfs show a good front end thump before crayon land kicks in. Verbatim its a 6-12 cities and burbs.

Feb 6 ehh...why does that date stick in my mind?  :whistle:

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Yesterday was one of those days where every model run pretty much killed what we thought would be a nice 1st week of February. Combine that with missing a snowstorm to the southeast and you had the perfect recipe for winter over disaster thread. Plus very rare to see models go from a cutter to a full out snowstorm. Plenty can go wrong but I'm thinking we get at least 50% frozen precip next week

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Next weeks storm could be wild. Closely checking the panels it would be snow - sleet/ice - snow verbatim. Surface is cold throughout. It would be a winter weather lover's sandwich. And it will change every run of course. Nice confluence and cold feed from hp to the north. Mid levels are dicey. Should be fun. I'm not expecting all snow but frozen ops abound it appears. Could be a big ice storm. All rain looks less likely for now.

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Next weeks storm could be wild. Closely checking the panels it would be snow - sleet/ice - snow verbatim. Surface is cold throughout. It would be a winter weather lover's sandwich. And it will change every run of course. Nice confluence and cold feed from hp to the north. Mid levels are dicey. Should be fun. I'm not expecting all snow but frozen ops abound it appears. Could be a big ice storm. All rain looks less likely for now.

the trend over the last few days has been good and consistent with what has happened with most storms this year in this progressive flow, so I, like you, am pretty optimistic

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the trend over the last few days has been good and consistent with what has happened with most storms this year in this progressive flow, so I, like you, am pretty optimistic

Ensembles are mixed for Monday. Little less than half but good on the means. Snow solutions about the same and it wasn't there last run. Nice to see so many pick it up so quick. Definitely support for euro op.

Another nice thing in the EPS is the members are basically unanimous for some snow on the front end for d8-10.

Means are up to 8" for our yards for both events. Looks good to me. Wxbell is sketchy with 850's in their algorithm so I'm pretty sure some of those members are sleetier or icier than they appear.

We'll have to wait and see if the Monday thing gets some support or if its a blip.

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Boy how things change in 10 hours around here.

The mini melt down over one day of bad runs in the long range was funny though. I have loved the pattern coming feb 3-15 for a while. Very active gulf open for business. Won't be all snow or cold but will be fun. Looks like it will take a cutter to get the pattern established then its go time.
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6z run is a winter lover's dream, especially for just northwest of here. Winter storm watches will be posted for new storms before the current warnings expire.  Unfortunately,  most of the excitement occurs just beyond where operational models have skill.

 

Euro op uses full resolution through d10 and the ensembles are much higher res than the GEFS...and the Euro + ensembles smoke us next week. Not saying that skill is great past d5-6 on any model but there is a big signal for Wed-Fri. Probably the biggest signal at long leads all year. We just have to hope and pray the fook line doesn't end up in PA.

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the euro control is epic...it looks like its going to cut---then it hits a brick wall while cold air funnels through. Gives us like 1 foot plus PD3 style

We could experience the most epic 2 weeks of Feb ever.    Ok, I'm maybe not ever....but I think it's gonna be fun.   We're climbing back up.   Just saw 6z GFS.  It's brutalizes us with that D8 storm.

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lol every day i check back on here it's a different pattern outlook.  reality is reality and given the way this winter has gone i'd hedge towards the colder/snow potential patterns over whatever the models are showing at this stage.

 

That pattern hasn't changed it all. It's the fook line that is waffling. And it will continue. High prob of a good bit of precip next week. The real game of course is how much is frozen. Don't get hung up on op gyrations for the next 4-5 days and life is a lot simpler. 

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That pattern hasn't changed it all. It's the fook line that is waffling. And it will continue. High prob of a good bit of precip next week. The real game of course is how much is frozen. Don't get hung up on op gyrations for the next 4-5 days and life is a lot simpler. 

hell even JB is in astonshment at what the EC is projecting for snowfall. And he reversed himself on the cutter idea originally shown on the EC.  GFS is very cold at end of run -30 in lower 48. 

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