mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Euro 3-4 inch event Monday morning hmmm, that doesn't seem to be on the Wunderground maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Heh, not sure about the Monday thing but the euro destroys us d8-10. Now I know why the ensembles were off the charts bullish yesterday afternoon. Awful nice seeing the gfs show a good front end thump before crayon land kicks in. Verbatim its a 6-12 cities and burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 6z still shows a lot of possibilities in the LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Heh, not sure about the Monday thing but the euro destroys us d8-10. Now I know why the ensembles were off the charts bullish yesterday afternoon. Awful nice seeing the gfs show a good front end thump before crayon land kicks in. Verbatim its a 6-12 cities and burbs. Feb 6 ehh...why does that date stick in my mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Feb 6 ehh...why does that date stick in my mind? Just checked the zoomed maps. 850's too close for comfort. Dca goes above zero for a time and I seriously walk the line. Snowmaps are deceptive. Surface cold though. All frozen but a buffet on the table. I'm good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yesterday was one of those days where every model run pretty much killed what we thought would be a nice 1st week of February. Combine that with missing a snowstorm to the southeast and you had the perfect recipe for winter over disaster thread. Plus very rare to see models go from a cutter to a full out snowstorm. Plenty can go wrong but I'm thinking we get at least 50% frozen precip next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Slight improvement Hahahaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Next weeks storm could be wild. Closely checking the panels it would be snow - sleet/ice - snow verbatim. Surface is cold throughout. It would be a winter weather lover's sandwich. And it will change every run of course. Nice confluence and cold feed from hp to the north. Mid levels are dicey. Should be fun. I'm not expecting all snow but frozen ops abound it appears. Could be a big ice storm. All rain looks less likely for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Next weeks storm could be wild. Closely checking the panels it would be snow - sleet/ice - snow verbatim. Surface is cold throughout. It would be a winter weather lover's sandwich. And it will change every run of course. Nice confluence and cold feed from hp to the north. Mid levels are dicey. Should be fun. I'm not expecting all snow but frozen ops abound it appears. Could be a big ice storm. All rain looks less likely for now. the trend over the last few days has been good and consistent with what has happened with most storms this year in this progressive flow, so I, like you, am pretty optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Good morning guys. Yes reading in here yesterday was brutal. We all get frustrated when when someone else gets big snows, but by the looks of things we'll get ours (or something) soon enough. So next Monday and Thursday on the drawing board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 my obligatory daily post of the CFS2 for FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Giving the eye to the rain/snow line. Maybe that will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 the trend over the last few days has been good and consistent with what has happened with most storms this year in this progressive flow, so I, like you, am pretty optimisticEnsembles are mixed for Monday. Little less than half but good on the means. Snow solutions about the same and it wasn't there last run. Nice to see so many pick it up so quick. Definitely support for euro op.Another nice thing in the EPS is the members are basically unanimous for some snow on the front end for d8-10. Means are up to 8" for our yards for both events. Looks good to me. Wxbell is sketchy with 850's in their algorithm so I'm pretty sure some of those members are sleetier or icier than they appear. We'll have to wait and see if the Monday thing gets some support or if its a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Boy how things change in 10 hours around here.The mini melt down over one day of bad runs in the long range was funny though. I have loved the pattern coming feb 3-15 for a while. Very active gulf open for business. Won't be all snow or cold but will be fun. Looks like it will take a cutter to get the pattern established then its go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Next week is the week we've all been waiting for. Going to be a parade of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 6z GFS is a crushing around Day 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 6z run is a winter lover's dream, especially for just northwest of here. Winter storm watches will be posted for new storms before the current warnings expire. Unfortunately, most of the excitement occurs just beyond where operational models have skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 6z run is a winter lover's dream, especially for just northwest of here. Winter storm watches will be posted for new storms before the current warnings expire. Unfortunately, most of the excitement occurs just beyond where operational models have skill. Euro op uses full resolution through d10 and the ensembles are much higher res than the GEFS...and the Euro + ensembles smoke us next week. Not saying that skill is great past d5-6 on any model but there is a big signal for Wed-Fri. Probably the biggest signal at long leads all year. We just have to hope and pray the fook line doesn't end up in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The problem with that 6Z GFS run is that at the bounds of any believability (168 hrs) it shows us smack dab in the middle of an epic precip hole. Unfortunately, I can't figure out how to paste the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The problem with that 6Z GFS run is that at the bounds of any believability (168 hrs) it shows us smack dab in the middle of an epic precip hole. Unfortunately, I can't figure out how to paste the map. Save the image and upload (attach files) the file if/after replying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 the euro control is epic...it looks like its going to cut---then it hits a brick wall while cold air funnels through. Gives us like 1 foot plus PD3 style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 the euro control is epic...it looks like its going to cut---then it hits a brick wall while cold air funnels through. Gives us like 1 foot plus PD3 style We could experience the most epic 2 weeks of Feb ever. Ok, I'm maybe not ever....but I think it's gonna be fun. We're climbing back up. Just saw 6z GFS. It's brutalizes us with that D8 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 lol every day i check back on here it's a different pattern outlook. reality is reality and given the way this winter has gone i'd hedge towards the colder/snow potential patterns over whatever the models are showing at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 lol every day i check back on here it's a different pattern outlook. reality is reality and given the way this winter has gone i'd hedge towards the colder/snow potential patterns over whatever the models are showing at this stage. That pattern hasn't changed it all. It's the fook line that is waffling. And it will continue. High prob of a good bit of precip next week. The real game of course is how much is frozen. Don't get hung up on op gyrations for the next 4-5 days and life is a lot simpler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That pattern hasn't changed it all. It's the fook line that is waffling. And it will continue. High prob of a good bit of precip next week. The real game of course is how much is frozen. Don't get hung up on op gyrations for the next 4-5 days and life is a lot simpler. hell even JB is in astonshment at what the EC is projecting for snowfall. And he reversed himself on the cutter idea originally shown on the EC. GFS is very cold at end of run -30 in lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS has the cutter this weekend that hopefully sets up something for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This weekend has always been a lost weekend but I'm looking forward to the torch it May bring Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Should be some good cancelling here in a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS looks to screw us with the D8 system. High moving off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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