Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have seen several times this winter where the pattern looked great...there was a day or two of ****ty model runs and then it came back to a great looking pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well at 210-216 it tries to get something going on the frontal zone that clips us. #hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is kinda doing what the gfs started doing. Ejected a piece of energy in front of the main trough out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 10 day storms work out all the time so I am not surprised that everything is still on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have seen several times this winter where the pattern looked great...there was a day or two of ****ty model runs and then it came back to a great looking pattern Yeah, sometimes they get too stagnant with the larger circulations when this winter has been nothing short of a parade of waves. So as we get closer, they begin to sniff that out and get less "cut-scenario." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 HM has been uber informative here. Thanks. This is one solution that has always been out there. Now I will go get my rose colored glasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 the whole pattern got shifted west like 100 miles....which makes sense...hopefully the models are overdoing heights in the southeast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Reliving a fake 94' wannabe pattern is not what I would call "snowy" ... this run shows the potential other extreme in this pattern, as Matt's analogs have pointed to as a possibility. Overall, pretty low confidence...and really always has been. So why are non-weather people still asking me about "30 inches" next week! Because some dweeb on FB who thinks he is a weather expert posted the now infamous Euro control run that showed total snowfall for the first 10 days of Feb being epic. Crazy how this stuff goes viral. Cant tell you how many people have asked me about it at work in the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 getting upset about next weekends model runs when this weekend hasnt even happened yet is LOL. We dont even know whats going to happen monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 getting upset about next weekends model runs when this weekend hasnt even happened yet is LOL. We dont even know whats going to happen monday you went from getting 20"+ on yesterday's run to like 3" on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Because some dweeb on FB who thinks he is a weather expert posted the now infamous Euro control run that showed total snowfall for the first 10 days of Feb being epic. Crazy how this stuff goes viral. Cant tell you how many people have asked me about it at work in the last few days. JI will do anything for attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 HM has been uber informative here. Thanks. This is one solution that has always been out there. Now I will go get my rose colored glasses. I agree, he's not even part of this area, but he puts up with us and offers good expertise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 getting upset about next weekends model runs when this weekend hasnt even happened yet is LOL. We dont even know whats going to happen monday Yup. I'm looking forward to some mild weather next couple days. Good break for car washing. Focus on the possible Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you went from getting 20"+ on yesterday's run to like 3" on this one you knew i wasnt getting 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 JI will do anything for attention lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The unicorn is dead. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 getting upset about next weekends model runs when this weekend hasnt even happened yet is LOL. We dont even know whats going to happen monday The Monday system is irrelevant to this thread....separate topics, so a range of reactions to model simulations for next weekend should be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thanks everyone. That "dweeb" on fb will learn the hard way I guess about deterministic solutions beyond a week, especially with snow! Another interesting thing to note is that at the heart of the PV split in the stratosphere around day 5-6, the PV gets shunted down into E Canada. The GFS this run absolutely destroyed our side's PV. The ECMWF on the other hand, holds onto it and sends it back toward Greenland. Even variations in the stratosphere can have a feedback effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I've done the math...If you go back to 99-2000 through 2012-13 or 2004-05 through 2012-13 and take the average it will likely be very very close to your actual average....both samples are pretty good...just dont start with 02-03..you will get an inflated average Rough estimates IMBY: 20" 23" (15" in Feb 2006) 18" (lots of nickle and diming during the cold period) 11" 10" 85" 25" (14" from the psuhoffman MECS) 6" ~18" Looks to be around 24" average in western Cockeysville, just like the map says. 18" median. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The unicorn is dead. Sent from my iPhone Good ol Figment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Who's in for VD storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Who's in for VD storm? Every storm around here is like VD... First you think it's love, then you realize it's just what's left after you get screwed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD-Dave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Every storm around here is like VD... First you think it's love, then you realize it's just what's left after you get screwed... Best banter post ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That's just outright...disturbing! This all reminds me of the scene in the amusement park from "Despicable Me", with the obnoxious game booth kid: "You see that little space ship over there? You see how it's not knocked over? Do you know what that means, professor? It means, you...don't...get...the...uni-corn! Oh! Do I see a frownie face? Better luck next time!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have seen several times this winter where the pattern looked great...there was a day or two of ****ty model runs and then it came back to a great looking pattern It's possible but there are reasons behind the shifts and we need those to change back also. The guidance was suggesting a better NAO a few days ago, that was forcing the western trough to be more broad and shallow and storms to slide east. The NAO is not a hot mess and the trough out west can dig and pump the ridge up the east coast. The pattern on the models right now for the next 6-10 days looks nothing like the one I was excited about 3 days ago. It could shift back, it would not take a MAJOR change but right now everything is bleeding the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 JI will do anything for attention Since we are not getting any decent snow-lovers events, I can only look forward to a historical round of Ji's trolling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 EPS looks pretty good fri night - sat. Colder on the means than the op at the surface and 850's are ok. Looks like 2 pieces of energy are being keyed on and no single big wrapped up storm. Big spread on the second piece but definitely a decent look friday night on the means for a possible snowy outcome. Second piece looks warmer with problems. Down the line looks colder too. EPS has been looking really warm d11-15 but that has changed quite a bit. I'm not saying the mean is "cold" but it is mostly below normal on average. Nice to see the change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wes, what do you make of the height patterns d11-15 on the global ensemble means? It's an unusual look for me. I already know it's flawed for snow but looks like good consensus for a solid -wpo/+epo pac pattern. The ridging in the sw and off of the socal coast keep us from torching. Mean trough axis seems to be centered east of the MS river. Looks like a wet period but anything wrapped goes nw and anything weak can slide? Am i thinking clearly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 WinterWxLuvr hates the negative posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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