Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,862
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Malmax64
    Newest Member
    Malmax64
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

Recommended Posts

Snow to ice to rain (and a ton of rain). Subject to countless changes. Pretty stout hp moving out. Odds for frozen pretty decent but track still awful on the gfs.

 

Yeah, waste of a great high pressure.  You couldn't ask for something better than a 1040+ mb one like what's shown, but as you say it gets shunted out.  And it's in the teens to near 20 overnight right before it moves in, too, which makes it all the more galling!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Yeah, waste of a great high pressure.  You couldn't ask for something better than a 1040+ mb one like what's shown, but as you say it gets shunted out.  And it's in the teens to near 20 overnight right before it moves in, too, which makes it all the more galling!

 

 

Such a moisture laden system as well.. qpf max of like 3.5 in W TN. 

 

Would think some of that pushes in soon via normal over running rules. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we had blocking/50-50, the next storm would be 2/10 all over again.

 

Yeah, pretty much I think!  The 00Z GFS after the non-unicorn storm has a sort of wacky evolution through the rest of its run.  It actually looks kind of interesting for some reason.  At least it's not the train wreck the 18Z showed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's still trying to figure out the Monday storm:)

Details are foggy but at least the airmass leading in is solid. If we're not going to have a transient block then it would be nice to see a front running shield in here quicker. Could easily happen. I'm in numbers padding mode. As long as I can measure before it washes I'm fine.

No matter which way you slice it, the event should kick the mid week storms ass.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It goes to Chicago. 

In this pattern I think the euro coastal is pretty unlikely (famous last words). Its evolution is dependent on a transient feature providing confluence which forces the low to track south of us.  Looking at how wound up the euro 500 is over the MS Valley it's hard to not envision a low at least tracking northward into the OH valley. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It goes to Chicago.

It's wild how different the euro op is handling the late week storm. And the EPS agrees. I posted the pbp in the wrong thread last night of the op euro. Ensembles show the same 2 waves of precip. First one overnight friday into saturday with a pretty good cold look (cold meaning just enough to think snow). the next wave on the heels is warmer with a cad signal. Absolutely a galaxy away from what the gfs is saying. If the euro didn't have what appears to be solid support from the EPS I would totally discount it. It's a war for now. We'll see how she goes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In this pattern I think the euro coastal is pretty unlikely (famous last words). Its evolution is dependent on a transient feature providing confluence which forces the low to track south of us.  Looking at how wound up the euro 500 is over the MS Valley it's hard to not envision a low at least tracking northward into the OH valley. 

 

Wes, I was reading up on confluence and what it means for DC snowstorms.  It seems all the big ones had some sort of confluence north of us to force the coastal south of us and bring it up the coast.  Is confluence the same as a 50/50 low? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wes, I was reading up on confluence and what it means for DC snowstorms.  It seems all the big ones had some sort of confluence north of us to force the coastal south of us and bring it up the coast.  Is confluence the same as a 50/50 low? 

 

50/50 low generates confluence.  It the storm amplifies too early it will weaken this, slide the HP out to sea and pull the storm north.  Better for the upper level trof to cut off from the flow and build confluence farther west.  Jan 96 is a good example of this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry guys, Monday mauler appears to be a lost cause....for most. Next window of opportunity appears to be mid February. However, thanks to positive AO, our cold supply will be limited during these events.

 

Maybe for you, but most of us don't live on a tiny peninsula right by the ocean.. now run off and enjoy your rain

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50/50 low generates confluence.  It the storm amplifies too early it will weaken this, slide the HP out to sea and pull the storm north.  Better for the upper level trof to cut off from the flow and build confluence farther west.  Jan 96 is a good example of this.

A big block with a 50 50 upper low under it will produce confluence and force a low south even with early amplification.  The Feb 10th 2013 event is a great example.  The upper  low got into OH northwest of us and then was forced to our south by the massive block.  That's why I'm partial to having a big ridge over southern greenland and a closed low south of it near Nova scotia.  Least those are my thoughts on the subject.  Without that block, then you're right,  early amplification generally is a killer as it builds heights to the east of the trough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry guys, Monday mauler appears to be a lost cause....for most. Next window of opportunity appears to be mid February. However, thanks to positive AO, our cold supply will be limited during these events.

Are you really sorry? Remember what happened to the dude in the movie Roadhouse who told his boss he was sorry about losing Dalton

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Feb 9-10 looks interesting on the Euro. I am sure it will evolve to something much different but verbatim it destroys C VA, up to SNJ.

 

Does the 2nd wave get as far west with snow as Roanoke?  This is 2 runs in a row with this type of solution. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...