Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I have kept an average since I moved here in 1987, and it is not 10-12 inches as that map implies. It is very close to the 18.5, which iis the longer term (NCDC) average for Denton MD. I am 10 miles north of Denton. Ironically my current snowfall for this winter so far is exactly 18.5. It may just have fewer sample points. Average is iffy here anyway IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I really think we should be using median for snowfall around here. DCA is ~12" for most timeframes, and that seems right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It may just have fewer sample points. Average is iffy here anyway IMO. Agreed. Very dependent on the particular pattern in this area. Some years we do very well, others suck and are well below avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I really think we should be using median for snowfall around here. DCA is ~12" for most timeframes, and that seems right. What about a dual median? What would that be - 6" and 25"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Most GEFS members favor a faster solution and less amp for Saturday. Fair # of members have precip knocking on the door by 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I really think we should be using median for snowfall around here. DCA is ~12" for most timeframes, and that seems right. Yeah, I think I like median better for us at least. Places that get more consistent figures every year might be totally fine on an avg.. and an avg is fine for the general consumer, but in many cases the median seems to be more realistic at least for a whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Most GEFS members favor a faster solution and less amp for Saturday. Fair # of members have precip knocking on the door by 180. Good news. Its good to get these amped up cutter solutions out of the way early See what Doc NO has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Good news. Its good to get these amped up cutter solutions out of the way early See what Doc NO has to say. there's plenty of west tracks on the members too. It's a tricky ride here. Expectations should be set accordingly. We really just don't know but a beautiful cold miller A is a low probability at this lead. Heck, it's a low prob at any lead in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I really think we should be using median for snowfall around here. DCA is ~12" for most timeframes, and that seems right. I like to start with 86-87 or better 87-88 since it is the last decent winter before the feast famine era..we dont get 25" seasons anymore I consider median to be about 10" and average around 14" at DCA..that seems more representative of current expectations... andmy current backyard is around 13/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I like to start with 86-87 or better 87-88 since it is the last decent winter before the feast famine era..we dont get 25" seasons anymore I consider median to be about 10" and average around 14" at DCA..that seems more representative of current expectations... andmy current backyard is around 13/16 DCA full record median (1888-on): 15" DCA river location median (1949-on): 12.5" DCA 1981-2010 median: 12" DCA 1987-current: 10" IAD Full record median (1963-on): 18" IAD 1981-10 median: 17" IAD 1987-current: 15" Sobering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 DCA full record median (1888-on): 15" DCA river location median (1949-on): 12.5" DCA 1981-2010 median: 12" DCA 1987-current: 10" IAD Full record median (1963-on): 18" IAD 1981-10 median: 17" IAD 1987-current: 15" Sobering I have a post about this that I wrote in December... I'm kinda hoping it stops snowing soon so we can run it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah, I think I like median better for us at least. Places that get more consistent figures every year might be totally fine on an avg.. and an avg is fine for the general consumer, but in many cases the median seems to be more realistic at least for a whole winter. Defo not consistent here lol. Since "Epic" winter where I had 68", the last 3 have been: 20, 1.8, 9.5, and so far this winter 18.5. I actually did pretty well here in the Dec 2010 storm that screwed DC-BWI... just caught enough of the western side to get about 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 there's plenty of west tracks on the members too. It's a tricky ride here. Expectations should be set accordingly. We really just don't know but a beautiful cold miller A is a low probability at this lead. Heck, it's a low prob at any lead in these parts.The trough axis sucks but for a while the guidance suggested some nao ridging and a better timed high to help. Those features have gone away and so did the snowier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 DCA full record median (1888-on): 15" DCA river location median (1949-on): 12.5" DCA 1981-2010 median: 12" DCA 1987-current: 10" IAD Full record median (1963-on): 18" IAD 1981-10 median: 17" IAD 1987-current: 15" Sobering Good stuff, thanks for the information. This should be applied to many in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Look at Harford County on that map. Pretty crazy range for average snowfall across one county! I do think the map is a little low on the averages around the Bay. EDIT: Baltimore Co. has a bigger range. I didn't see that lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Look at Harford County on that map. Pretty crazy range for average snowfall across one county! I do think the map is a little low on the averages around the Bay. EDIT: Baltimore Co. has a bigger range. I didn't see that lol... I think the "bay "effect is overdone on that map, esp in Cecil and Harford counties. There is typically quite a range across Baltimore county, but again I dont buy the really low numbers near the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think the "bay "effect is overdone on that map, esp in Cecil and Harford counties. There is typically quite a range across Baltimore county, but again I dont buy the really low numbers near the bay. I've noticed that the EURO does a horrible job with temperatures in SE Harford County. It shows us being at least 5 degrees warmer than the surrounding areas... pretty weird! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Already through day 6-7, the ECMWF is significantly different in Canada than the op GFS. Looking forward to the EPS, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Already through day 6-7, the ECMWF is significantly different in Canada than the op GFS. Looking forward to the EPS, too. Saw that. Miles apart really. Looks like different years comparing the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Saw that. Miles apart really. Looks like different years comparing the panels. Good or bad or undetermined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Already through day 6-7, the ECMWF is significantly different in Canada than the op GFS. Looking forward to the EPS, too. ECMWF does not have confluence or any semblance of a NAO wannabe pattern. It simply dislodges a PV into the Hudson and that becomes involved with the western trough. The height rises ahead of this then force a more inland scenario. The snow hyping isn't going to look to good if the EPS follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks pretty awful.. next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Still at 12z man Bob? Down, but not out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks pretty awful.. next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks pretty awful.. next Reliving a fake 94' wannabe pattern is not what I would call "snowy" ... this run shows the potential other extreme in this pattern, as Matt's analogs have pointed to as a possibility. Overall, pretty low confidence...and really always has been. So why are non-weather people still asking me about "30 inches" next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks pretty awful.. next Active pattern bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks pretty awful.. next There is no next....that's it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks pretty awful.. next Honestly, since last night's runs, what a train wreck. To go from 3 to 0 - only us MA'ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 There is no next....that's it. lol is it showing a cutter like GFS and GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 is it showing a cutter like GFS and GGEM? More a mess that spawns a low overhead that shoots NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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