Fozz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I've done the math...If you go back to 99-2000 through 2012-13 or 2004-05 through 2012-13 and take the average it will likely be very very close to your actual average....both samples are pretty good...just dont start with 02-03..you will get an inflated average Rough estimates IMBY: 20" 23" (15" in Feb 2006) 18" (lots of nickle and diming during the cold period) 11" 10" 85" 25" (14" from the psuhoffman MECS) 6" ~18" Looks to be around 24" average in western Cockeysville, just like the map says. 18" median. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The unicorn is dead. Sent from my iPhone Good ol Figment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Who's in for VD storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Who's in for VD storm? Every storm around here is like VD... First you think it's love, then you realize it's just what's left after you get screwed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD-Dave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Every storm around here is like VD... First you think it's love, then you realize it's just what's left after you get screwed... Best banter post ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That's just outright...disturbing! This all reminds me of the scene in the amusement park from "Despicable Me", with the obnoxious game booth kid: "You see that little space ship over there? You see how it's not knocked over? Do you know what that means, professor? It means, you...don't...get...the...uni-corn! Oh! Do I see a frownie face? Better luck next time!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have seen several times this winter where the pattern looked great...there was a day or two of ****ty model runs and then it came back to a great looking pattern It's possible but there are reasons behind the shifts and we need those to change back also. The guidance was suggesting a better NAO a few days ago, that was forcing the western trough to be more broad and shallow and storms to slide east. The NAO is not a hot mess and the trough out west can dig and pump the ridge up the east coast. The pattern on the models right now for the next 6-10 days looks nothing like the one I was excited about 3 days ago. It could shift back, it would not take a MAJOR change but right now everything is bleeding the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 JI will do anything for attention Since we are not getting any decent snow-lovers events, I can only look forward to a historical round of Ji's trolling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 EPS looks pretty good fri night - sat. Colder on the means than the op at the surface and 850's are ok. Looks like 2 pieces of energy are being keyed on and no single big wrapped up storm. Big spread on the second piece but definitely a decent look friday night on the means for a possible snowy outcome. Second piece looks warmer with problems. Down the line looks colder too. EPS has been looking really warm d11-15 but that has changed quite a bit. I'm not saying the mean is "cold" but it is mostly below normal on average. Nice to see the change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wes, what do you make of the height patterns d11-15 on the global ensemble means? It's an unusual look for me. I already know it's flawed for snow but looks like good consensus for a solid -wpo/+epo pac pattern. The ridging in the sw and off of the socal coast keep us from torching. Mean trough axis seems to be centered east of the MS river. Looks like a wet period but anything wrapped goes nw and anything weak can slide? Am i thinking clearly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 WinterWxLuvr hates the negative posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 WinterWxLuvr hates the negative posts. I hope Sunday night drills everybody between Charlottesville and Danville. Just for the humor of what would be posted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 hr 189 of the GFS is USA moisture to the max! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=189&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 hr 189 of the GFS is USA moisture to the max! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_189_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=189&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0Only thing missing from that setup is either a 50/50 or -nao to lock in that high. Both are gone on today's runs so it cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 If that storm happens as depicted now, it's going to be painful. A blue bomb drenching us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 If that storm happens as depicted now, it's going to be painful. A blue bomb drenching us. It's a good thing we're just over a week away. Cut the qpf in half with a track going up the coast and we'll all be happy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm not feeling it for Feb. -EPO seems modest at best and every other relevant teleconnection looks atrocious. It's not unusual for a frigid January to be followed by an uneventful February. I expect the next month to go the way of Feb 1977, Feb 1985, Feb 2004, and Feb 2009, not necessarily with the pattern, but in terms of sensible weather and contrast to the preceding January. We've had a good run these past 1-2 months and I'm thankful for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That entire run of the 18Z GFS was atrocious...from end to end. Ugh! Well, one run, so who knows. Interspersed cold behind rainy events that all go north of us. Then it essentially breaks things down quickly and we end up with Pacific flow as heights lift toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 18z GFS has at least some frozen precip for all three events here next week. I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That's a good hand for blackjack matt. I recommend a double down with dealer showing a 2 through 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That's a good hand for blackjack matt. I recommend a double down with dealer showing a 2 through 7. I would have recommended doing with his hand that he's already doing with the cards....<folding> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wes, what do you make of the height patterns d11-15 on the global ensemble means? It's an unusual look for me. I already know it's flawed for snow but looks like good consensus for a solid -wpo/+epo pac pattern. The ridging in the sw and off of the socal coast keep us from torching. Mean trough axis seems to be centered east of the MS river. Looks like a wet period but anything wrapped goes nw and anything weak can slide? Am i thinking clearly? I'm not sure, one thing that might eventually help is the vortex that drops into the gulf of AK. If it retrogrades a bit then we might get a a west coast ridge. not a full latitude one but it would help keep us from torching. I guess that is pretty much what you were saying. The ridge doesn't looks strong enough to stop pac systems for riding the ridge and dropping into a trough to its east so it might not be a totally band pattern except we still aren't getting much Atlantic love. Have to hope the neg aO holds on, it euro ensemble but not so much on the gefs forecasts of it (at least last I looked). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I said at one point this morning I felt good about the runs today. Oops. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 me too Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Im in......... the wrong hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 euro control is sort of like the euro. It hates the feb 7 Friday wave but there is a trailing wave that it blows up into a monster for Feb 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not sure, one thing that might eventually help is the vortex that drops into the gulf of AK. If it retrogrades a bit then we might get a a west coast ridge. not a full latitude one but it would help keep us from torching. I guess that is pretty much what you were saying. The ridge doesn't looks strong enough to stop pac systems for riding the ridge and dropping into a trough to its east so it might not be a totally band pattern except we still aren't getting much Atlantic love. Have to hope the neg aO holds on, it euro ensemble but not so much on the gefs forecasts of it (at least last I looked). Yes, that's what I was thinking irt losing the epo and replacing it wirh a goa vortex and still finding a way to not go into a long duration warm spell. Losing a week+ of any chance in mid-late Feb is a writing on the wall scenario I think a safe guess is relatively brief crap spell as the epo likely reloads again before the month is out. A last hurrah of sorts. It's hard to bet against it considering the last 3 months of persistence. Prior to the crap spell, d10-15 will at least have a chance with Pac energy up and over with cold air nearby. Timing and luck is always better during active periods. It looks like the conus will be active for the next 2 weeks. The Atlantic prob won't come around anytime soon. Maybe transient help but nothing stable. Hasn't worked all year so betting against it is tough as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just hoping to see this in a short while ---> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Snow to ice to rain (and a ton of rain). Subject to countless changes. Pretty stout hp moving out. Odds for frozen pretty decent but track still awful on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Snow to ice to rain (and a ton of rain). Subject to countless changes. Pretty stout hp moving out. Odds for frozen pretty decent but track still awful on the gfs. It's still trying to figure out the Monday storm:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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