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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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I think the "bay "effect is overdone on that map, esp in Cecil and Harford counties. There is typically quite a range across Baltimore county, but again I dont buy the really low numbers near the bay.

I've noticed that the EURO does a horrible job with temperatures in SE Harford County. It shows us being at least 5 degrees warmer than the surrounding areas... pretty weird!

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Already through day 6-7, the ECMWF is significantly different in Canada than the op GFS. Looking forward to the EPS, too.

 

ECMWF does not have confluence or any semblance of a NAO wannabe pattern. It simply dislodges a PV into the Hudson and that becomes involved with the western trough. The height rises ahead of this then force a more inland scenario. The snow hyping isn't going to look to good if the EPS follow suit.

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Euro looks pretty awful.. next 

 

Reliving a fake 94' wannabe pattern is not what I would call "snowy" ... this run shows the potential other extreme in this pattern, as Matt's analogs have pointed to as a possibility.

 

Overall, pretty low confidence...and really always has been. So why are non-weather people still asking me about "30 inches" next week! :(

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i have seen several times this winter where the pattern looked great...there was a day or two of ****ty model runs and then it came back to a great looking pattern

 

Yeah, sometimes they get too stagnant with the larger circulations when this winter has been nothing short of a parade of waves. So as we get closer, they begin to sniff that out and get less "cut-scenario."

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Reliving a fake 94' wannabe pattern is not what I would call "snowy" ... this run shows the potential other extreme in this pattern, as Matt's analogs have pointed to as a possibility.

 

Overall, pretty low confidence...and really always has been. So why are non-weather people still asking me about "30 inches" next week! :(

Because some dweeb on FB who thinks he is a weather expert posted the now infamous Euro control run that showed total snowfall for the first 10 days of Feb being epic. Crazy how this stuff goes viral. Cant tell you how many people have asked me about it at work in the last few days.

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Because some dweeb on FB who thinks he is a weather expert posted the now infamous Euro control run that showed total snowfall for the first 10 days of Feb being epic. Crazy how this stuff goes viral. Cant tell you how many people have asked me about it at work in the last few days.

JI will do anything for attention   

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HM has been uber informative here. Thanks. This is one solution that has always been out there. Now I will go get my rose colored glasses.

I agree, he's not even part of this area, but he puts up with us and offers good expertise.

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Thanks everyone. That "dweeb" on fb will learn the hard way I guess about deterministic solutions beyond a week, especially with snow!

 

Another interesting thing to note is that at the heart of the PV split in the stratosphere around day 5-6, the PV gets shunted down into E Canada. The GFS this run absolutely destroyed our side's PV. The ECMWF on the other hand, holds onto it and sends it back toward Greenland. Even variations in the stratosphere can have a feedback effect.

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