T. August Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think the "bay "effect is overdone on that map, esp in Cecil and Harford counties. There is typically quite a range across Baltimore county, but again I dont buy the really low numbers near the bay. I've noticed that the EURO does a horrible job with temperatures in SE Harford County. It shows us being at least 5 degrees warmer than the surrounding areas... pretty weird! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Already through day 6-7, the ECMWF is significantly different in Canada than the op GFS. Looking forward to the EPS, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Already through day 6-7, the ECMWF is significantly different in Canada than the op GFS. Looking forward to the EPS, too. Saw that. Miles apart really. Looks like different years comparing the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Saw that. Miles apart really. Looks like different years comparing the panels. Good or bad or undetermined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Already through day 6-7, the ECMWF is significantly different in Canada than the op GFS. Looking forward to the EPS, too. ECMWF does not have confluence or any semblance of a NAO wannabe pattern. It simply dislodges a PV into the Hudson and that becomes involved with the western trough. The height rises ahead of this then force a more inland scenario. The snow hyping isn't going to look to good if the EPS follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks pretty awful.. next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Still at 12z man Bob? Down, but not out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks pretty awful.. next Reliving a fake 94' wannabe pattern is not what I would call "snowy" ... this run shows the potential other extreme in this pattern, as Matt's analogs have pointed to as a possibility. Overall, pretty low confidence...and really always has been. So why are non-weather people still asking me about "30 inches" next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks pretty awful.. next Active pattern bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks pretty awful.. next There is no next....that's it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro looks pretty awful.. next Honestly, since last night's runs, what a train wreck. To go from 3 to 0 - only us MA'ers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 There is no next....that's it. lol is it showing a cutter like GFS and GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 is it showing a cutter like GFS and GGEM? More a mess that spawns a low overhead that shoots NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have seen several times this winter where the pattern looked great...there was a day or two of ****ty model runs and then it came back to a great looking pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well at 210-216 it tries to get something going on the frontal zone that clips us. #hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is kinda doing what the gfs started doing. Ejected a piece of energy in front of the main trough out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 10 day storms work out all the time so I am not surprised that everything is still on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i have seen several times this winter where the pattern looked great...there was a day or two of ****ty model runs and then it came back to a great looking pattern Yeah, sometimes they get too stagnant with the larger circulations when this winter has been nothing short of a parade of waves. So as we get closer, they begin to sniff that out and get less "cut-scenario." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 HM has been uber informative here. Thanks. This is one solution that has always been out there. Now I will go get my rose colored glasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Reliving a fake 94' wannabe pattern is not what I would call "snowy" ... this run shows the potential other extreme in this pattern, as Matt's analogs have pointed to as a possibility. Overall, pretty low confidence...and really always has been. So why are non-weather people still asking me about "30 inches" next week! Because some dweeb on FB who thinks he is a weather expert posted the now infamous Euro control run that showed total snowfall for the first 10 days of Feb being epic. Crazy how this stuff goes viral. Cant tell you how many people have asked me about it at work in the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 getting upset about next weekends model runs when this weekend hasnt even happened yet is LOL. We dont even know whats going to happen monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Because some dweeb on FB who thinks he is a weather expert posted the now infamous Euro control run that showed total snowfall for the first 10 days of Feb being epic. Crazy how this stuff goes viral. Cant tell you how many people have asked me about it at work in the last few days. JI will do anything for attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 HM has been uber informative here. Thanks. This is one solution that has always been out there. Now I will go get my rose colored glasses. I agree, he's not even part of this area, but he puts up with us and offers good expertise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 getting upset about next weekends model runs when this weekend hasnt even happened yet is LOL. We dont even know whats going to happen monday Yup. I'm looking forward to some mild weather next couple days. Good break for car washing. Focus on the possible Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 you went from getting 20"+ on yesterday's run to like 3" on this one you knew i wasnt getting 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 JI will do anything for attention lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The unicorn is dead. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 getting upset about next weekends model runs when this weekend hasnt even happened yet is LOL. We dont even know whats going to happen monday The Monday system is irrelevant to this thread....separate topics, so a range of reactions to model simulations for next weekend should be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thanks everyone. That "dweeb" on fb will learn the hard way I guess about deterministic solutions beyond a week, especially with snow! Another interesting thing to note is that at the heart of the PV split in the stratosphere around day 5-6, the PV gets shunted down into E Canada. The GFS this run absolutely destroyed our side's PV. The ECMWF on the other hand, holds onto it and sends it back toward Greenland. Even variations in the stratosphere can have a feedback effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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