CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Maybe a four inch event? Some messy small events. Slogging through models that give mediocre outcomes makes for a tough winter. Its been a good winter. I'd love to get one bigger event, 6-10ish, but if not so be it. I am exactly at climo, and most are either close or over, so 2 or 3 more minor to moderate events and this winter will be more than anyone could have hoped for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Its been a good winter. I'd love to get one bigger event, 6-10ish, but if not so be it. I am exactly at climo, and most are either close or over, so 2 or 3 more minor to moderate events and this winter will be more than anyone could have hoped for. Yup i am almost 2" over climo already. Anything we get from here on out is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Its been a good winter. I'd love to get one bigger event, 6-10ish, but if not so be it. I am exactly at climo, and most are either close or over, so 2 or 3 more minor to moderate events and this winter will be more than anyone could have hoped for. Yup i am almost 2" over climo already. Anything we get from here on out is gravy. Agreed...for you guys it has been a really solid winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 unfortunately the pattern isnt that good and past patterns similar to this one didn't produce big snows for DC... Bingo bango Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i dont even know what my climo is for snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 unfortunately the pattern isnt that good and past patterns similar to this one didn't produce big snows for DC... Makes sense, unfortunately, for us snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS up to its usual mischief. That 500 mb from this run is for the mid week event ..... still not worried at all. I mean, we can't even get a consensus on storm #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS up to its usual mischief. That 500 mb from this run is for the mid week event ..... still not worried at all. I mean, we can't even get a consensus on storm #1. Wednesday was always a lost cause to me. I'm sure next weekend will end up sucking. Chasing ghosts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wednesday is pretty much a goner... might as well just forget about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 unfortunately the pattern isnt that good and past patterns similar to this one didn't produce big snows for DC... But the problem I am having is finding one analog that looked like this setup. All of the analogs coming up had some pretty significant differences, enough so that I think it could be misleading. I don't mean to play into the hype by any means. The West Canadian Block that breaks produces effects across all of eastern Canada that kind of mimic what a -NAO would do. Is that enough to trump the basic analog guidance? I don't know... I will say this. The biggest concern is not having the Pacific come out fast enough. Should it become stuck because of the western Canadian block, this storm will go bye-bye in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 But the problem I am having is finding one analog that looked like this setup. All of the analogs coming up had some pretty significant differences, enough so that I think it could be misleading. I don't mean to play into the hype by any means. The West Canadian Block that breaks produces effects across all of eastern Canada that kind of mimic what a -NAO would do. Is that enough to trump the basic analog guidance? I don't know... I will say this. The biggest concern is not having the Pacific come out fast enough. Should it become stuck because of the western Canadian block, this storm will go bye-bye in a hurry. Big run to run changes with gfs op handling the potential for phasing out west. 12z is continuing to slow down the progression but also had some big changes with not being so amped in front and bringing more confluence above us. It's a mess. We need the fastest possible solution for obvious reasons regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i dont even know what my climo is for snowfall... eleventy hundred inches map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Big run to run changes with gfs op handling the potential for phasing out west. 12z is continuing to slow down the progression but also had some big changes with not being so amped in front and bringing more confluence above us. It's a mess. We need the fastest possible solution for obvious reasons regardless. Yeah, I'm still going over it but the first take-away was: wow, so different in Canada from the ECMWF. The entire evolution is just completely different with the breaking anticyclone in W. Canada and how the PV interacts with that downstream. So, yeah, the window of confluence / -NAO "mimic" will ultimately run out of time, the longer this takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 the north arrow on that map is larger than the counties on the map 28-30... not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah, I'm still going over it but the first take-away was: wow, so different in Canada from the ECMWF. The entire evolution is just completely different with the breaking anticyclone in W. Canada and how the PV interacts with that downstream. So, yeah, the window of confluence / -NAO "mimic" will ultimately run out of time, the longer this takes. So, is hanging the whole thing back out west and ejecting a piece in front a good thing or a bad thing? GFS solution is brand new for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well Uni looked really good until truncation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 the north arrow on that map is larger than the counties on the map 28-30... not bad Yeah it's a pretty ugly map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well Uni looked really good until truncation... It's vastly different with the progression of h5 than just 6z. Worlds apart from the euro as well. I have no idea what to think. Verbatim it a lateral step from a big cutter. I'm not sure I've seen a progression like this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So, is hanging the whole thing back out west and ejecting a piece in front a good thing or a bad thing? GFS solution is brand new for sure. Well, the more wrapped-up the trough becomes out west and slower the s/w are to eject out, the more likely this cuts inland, as today's 12z GFS showed. Should that end up more correct, you would then need the "-NAO mimic" and confluence to hold equally as long. In this winter, I wouldn't count on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well, the more wrapped-up the trough becomes out west and slower the s/w are to eject out, the more likely this cuts inland, as today's 12z GFS showed. Should that end up more correct, you would then need the "-NAO mimic" and confluence to hold equally as long. In this winter, I wouldn't count on that... It's an unusual run. It looks like it wants to eject energy in waves. A front running piece and then crappy track thereafter. I know one thing. The progression from 192 to 204 is pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Time to buy a boat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Time to buy a boat.... yeah...definitely tougher for you guys down in Richmond...glad you scored a couple days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well Uni looked really good until truncation... I'll say Sorry about that! The 8/9 storm is a pretty big hit of front end snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 eleventy hundred inches map: dc-region-average-snow-map.jpg Most of those avg annual snowfall maps suck. There is a better one thats been posted many times..its better, but still has flaws. Best to use NCDC. Heres the one I was referring to...its better as the other one is too general. This one has some oddities but overall best I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I've done the math...If you go back to 99-2000 through 2012-13 or 2004-05 through 2012-13 and take the average it will likely be very very close to your actual average....both samples are pretty good...just dont start with 02-03..you will get an inflated average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Most of those avg annual snowfall maps suck. There is a better one thats been posted many times..its better, but still has flaws. Best to use NCDC. Heres the one I was referring to...its better as the other one is too general. This one has some oddities but overall best I have seen. md-snow-avg.gif That one is a little dated, though I like it better visually. The one Ian posted has the current averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That one is a little dated, though I like it better visually. The one Ian posted has the current averages. Yeah I think that's the 1971-2000 avgs. It is a better map overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 With respect to next weekend storm,is it unusual to have a lot of moisture with the system that's not really that wound up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That one is a little dated, though I like it better visually. The one Ian posted has the current averages. I have kept an average since I moved here in 1987, and it is not 10-12 inches as that map implies. It is very close to the 18.5, which iis the longer term (NCDC) average for Denton MD. I am 10 miles north of Denton. Ironically my current snowfall for this winter so far is exactly 18.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 actually using 94-95 through last winter works really well too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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