HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Big run to run changes with gfs op handling the potential for phasing out west. 12z is continuing to slow down the progression but also had some big changes with not being so amped in front and bringing more confluence above us. It's a mess. We need the fastest possible solution for obvious reasons regardless. Yeah, I'm still going over it but the first take-away was: wow, so different in Canada from the ECMWF. The entire evolution is just completely different with the breaking anticyclone in W. Canada and how the PV interacts with that downstream. So, yeah, the window of confluence / -NAO "mimic" will ultimately run out of time, the longer this takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 the north arrow on that map is larger than the counties on the map 28-30... not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah, I'm still going over it but the first take-away was: wow, so different in Canada from the ECMWF. The entire evolution is just completely different with the breaking anticyclone in W. Canada and how the PV interacts with that downstream. So, yeah, the window of confluence / -NAO "mimic" will ultimately run out of time, the longer this takes. So, is hanging the whole thing back out west and ejecting a piece in front a good thing or a bad thing? GFS solution is brand new for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well Uni looked really good until truncation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 the north arrow on that map is larger than the counties on the map 28-30... not bad Yeah it's a pretty ugly map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well Uni looked really good until truncation... It's vastly different with the progression of h5 than just 6z. Worlds apart from the euro as well. I have no idea what to think. Verbatim it a lateral step from a big cutter. I'm not sure I've seen a progression like this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So, is hanging the whole thing back out west and ejecting a piece in front a good thing or a bad thing? GFS solution is brand new for sure. Well, the more wrapped-up the trough becomes out west and slower the s/w are to eject out, the more likely this cuts inland, as today's 12z GFS showed. Should that end up more correct, you would then need the "-NAO mimic" and confluence to hold equally as long. In this winter, I wouldn't count on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well, the more wrapped-up the trough becomes out west and slower the s/w are to eject out, the more likely this cuts inland, as today's 12z GFS showed. Should that end up more correct, you would then need the "-NAO mimic" and confluence to hold equally as long. In this winter, I wouldn't count on that... It's an unusual run. It looks like it wants to eject energy in waves. A front running piece and then crappy track thereafter. I know one thing. The progression from 192 to 204 is pretty unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Time to buy a boat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well Uni looked really good until truncation... I'll say Sorry about that! The 8/9 storm is a pretty big hit of front end snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 eleventy hundred inches map: dc-region-average-snow-map.jpg Most of those avg annual snowfall maps suck. There is a better one thats been posted many times..its better, but still has flaws. Best to use NCDC. Heres the one I was referring to...its better as the other one is too general. This one has some oddities but overall best I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Most of those avg annual snowfall maps suck. There is a better one thats been posted many times..its better, but still has flaws. Best to use NCDC. Heres the one I was referring to...its better as the other one is too general. This one has some oddities but overall best I have seen. md-snow-avg.gif That one is a little dated, though I like it better visually. The one Ian posted has the current averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That one is a little dated, though I like it better visually. The one Ian posted has the current averages. Yeah I think that's the 1971-2000 avgs. It is a better map overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 With respect to next weekend storm,is it unusual to have a lot of moisture with the system that's not really that wound up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That one is a little dated, though I like it better visually. The one Ian posted has the current averages. I have kept an average since I moved here in 1987, and it is not 10-12 inches as that map implies. It is very close to the 18.5, which iis the longer term (NCDC) average for Denton MD. I am 10 miles north of Denton. Ironically my current snowfall for this winter so far is exactly 18.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I have kept an average since I moved here in 1987, and it is not 10-12 inches as that map implies. It is very close to the 18.5, which iis the longer term (NCDC) average for Denton MD. I am 10 miles north of Denton. Ironically my current snowfall for this winter so far is exactly 18.5. It may just have fewer sample points. Average is iffy here anyway IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I really think we should be using median for snowfall around here. DCA is ~12" for most timeframes, and that seems right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It may just have fewer sample points. Average is iffy here anyway IMO. Agreed. Very dependent on the particular pattern in this area. Some years we do very well, others suck and are well below avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I really think we should be using median for snowfall around here. DCA is ~12" for most timeframes, and that seems right. What about a dual median? What would that be - 6" and 25"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Most GEFS members favor a faster solution and less amp for Saturday. Fair # of members have precip knocking on the door by 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I really think we should be using median for snowfall around here. DCA is ~12" for most timeframes, and that seems right. Yeah, I think I like median better for us at least. Places that get more consistent figures every year might be totally fine on an avg.. and an avg is fine for the general consumer, but in many cases the median seems to be more realistic at least for a whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Most GEFS members favor a faster solution and less amp for Saturday. Fair # of members have precip knocking on the door by 180. Good news. Its good to get these amped up cutter solutions out of the way early See what Doc NO has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Good news. Its good to get these amped up cutter solutions out of the way early See what Doc NO has to say. there's plenty of west tracks on the members too. It's a tricky ride here. Expectations should be set accordingly. We really just don't know but a beautiful cold miller A is a low probability at this lead. Heck, it's a low prob at any lead in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I like to start with 86-87 or better 87-88 since it is the last decent winter before the feast famine era..we dont get 25" seasons anymore I consider median to be about 10" and average around 14" at DCA..that seems more representative of current expectations... andmy current backyard is around 13/16 DCA full record median (1888-on): 15" DCA river location median (1949-on): 12.5" DCA 1981-2010 median: 12" DCA 1987-current: 10" IAD Full record median (1963-on): 18" IAD 1981-10 median: 17" IAD 1987-current: 15" Sobering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 DCA full record median (1888-on): 15" DCA river location median (1949-on): 12.5" DCA 1981-2010 median: 12" DCA 1987-current: 10" IAD Full record median (1963-on): 18" IAD 1981-10 median: 17" IAD 1987-current: 15" Sobering I have a post about this that I wrote in December... I'm kinda hoping it stops snowing soon so we can run it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah, I think I like median better for us at least. Places that get more consistent figures every year might be totally fine on an avg.. and an avg is fine for the general consumer, but in many cases the median seems to be more realistic at least for a whole winter. Defo not consistent here lol. Since "Epic" winter where I had 68", the last 3 have been: 20, 1.8, 9.5, and so far this winter 18.5. I actually did pretty well here in the Dec 2010 storm that screwed DC-BWI... just caught enough of the western side to get about 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 there's plenty of west tracks on the members too. It's a tricky ride here. Expectations should be set accordingly. We really just don't know but a beautiful cold miller A is a low probability at this lead. Heck, it's a low prob at any lead in these parts.The trough axis sucks but for a while the guidance suggested some nao ridging and a better timed high to help. Those features have gone away and so did the snowier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 DCA full record median (1888-on): 15" DCA river location median (1949-on): 12.5" DCA 1981-2010 median: 12" DCA 1987-current: 10" IAD Full record median (1963-on): 18" IAD 1981-10 median: 17" IAD 1987-current: 15" Sobering Good stuff, thanks for the information. This should be applied to many in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Look at Harford County on that map. Pretty crazy range for average snowfall across one county! I do think the map is a little low on the averages around the Bay. EDIT: Baltimore Co. has a bigger range. I didn't see that lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Look at Harford County on that map. Pretty crazy range for average snowfall across one county! I do think the map is a little low on the averages around the Bay. EDIT: Baltimore Co. has a bigger range. I didn't see that lol... I think the "bay "effect is overdone on that map, esp in Cecil and Harford counties. There is typically quite a range across Baltimore county, but again I dont buy the really low numbers near the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.