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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Big run to run changes with gfs op handling the potential for phasing out west. 12z is continuing to slow down the progression but also had some big changes with not being so amped in front and bringing more confluence above us. It's a mess.

We need the fastest possible solution for obvious reasons regardless.

 

Yeah, I'm still going over it but the first take-away was: wow, so different in Canada from the ECMWF. The entire evolution is just completely different with the breaking anticyclone in W. Canada and how the PV interacts with that downstream. So, yeah, the window of confluence / -NAO "mimic" will ultimately run out of time, the longer this takes.

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Yeah, I'm still going over it but the first take-away was: wow, so different in Canada from the ECMWF. The entire evolution is just completely different with the breaking anticyclone in W. Canada and how the PV interacts with that downstream. So, yeah, the window of confluence / -NAO "mimic" will ultimately run out of time, the longer this takes.

So, is hanging the whole thing back out west and ejecting a piece in front a good thing or a bad thing? GFS solution is brand new for sure.

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Well Uni looked really good until truncation...

It's vastly different with the progression of h5 than just 6z. Worlds apart from the euro as well. I have no idea what to think.

Verbatim it a lateral step from a big cutter. I'm not sure I've seen a progression like this before.

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So, is hanging the whole thing back out west and ejecting a piece in front a good thing or a bad thing? GFS solution is brand new for sure.

 

Well, the more wrapped-up the trough becomes out west and slower the s/w are to eject out, the more likely this cuts inland, as today's 12z GFS showed. Should that end up more correct, you would then need the "-NAO mimic" and confluence to hold equally as long. In this winter, I wouldn't count on that...

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Well, the more wrapped-up the trough becomes out west and slower the s/w are to eject out, the more likely this cuts inland, as today's 12z GFS showed. Should that end up more correct, you would then need the "-NAO mimic" and confluence to hold equally as long. In this winter, I wouldn't count on that...

It's an unusual run. It looks like it wants to eject energy in waves. A front running piece and then crappy track thereafter. I know one thing. The progression from 192 to 204 is pretty unlikely.

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eleventy hundred inches

 

map:

 

attachicon.gifdc-region-average-snow-map.jpg

Most of those avg annual snowfall maps suck. There is a better one thats been posted many times..its better, but still has flaws. Best to use NCDC.

 

 

Heres the one I was referring to...its better as the other one is too general. This one has some oddities but overall best I have seen.

 

post-1005-0-14416800-1391187602_thumb.gi

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Most of those avg annual snowfall maps suck. There is a better one thats been posted many times..its better, but still has flaws. Best to use NCDC.

 

 

Heres the one I was referring to...its better as the other one is too general. This one has some oddities but overall best I have seen.

 

attachicon.gifmd-snow-avg.gif

 

That one is a little dated, though I like it better visually. The one Ian posted has the current averages.

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That one is a little dated, though I like it better visually. The one Ian posted has the current averages.

I have kept an average since I moved here in 1987, and it is not 10-12 inches as that map implies. It is very close to the 18.5, which iis the longer term (NCDC) average for Denton MD. I am 10 miles north of Denton. Ironically my current snowfall for this winter so far is exactly 18.5.

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I have kept an average since I moved here in 1987, and it is not 10-12 inches as that map implies. It is very close to the 18.5, which iis the longer term (NCDC) average for Denton MD. I am 10 miles north of Denton. Ironically my current snowfall for this winter so far is exactly 18.5.

It may just have fewer sample points.  Average is iffy here anyway IMO. 

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I really think we should be using median for snowfall around here.  DCA is ~12" for most timeframes, and that seems right.

Yeah, I think I like median better for us at least. Places that get more consistent figures every year might be totally fine on an avg.. and an avg is fine for the general consumer, but in many cases the median seems to be more realistic at least for a whole winter. 

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Good news. Its good to get these amped up cutter solutions out of the way early ;) See what Doc NO has to say.

 

there's plenty of west tracks on the members too. It's a tricky ride here. Expectations should be set accordingly. We really just don't know but a beautiful cold miller A is a low probability at this lead. Heck, it's a low prob at any lead in these parts. 

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I like to start with 86-87 or better 87-88 since  it is the last decent winter before the feast famine era..we dont get 25" seasons anymore

 

I consider median to be about 10" and average around 14" at DCA..that seems more representative of current expectations...

 

andmy current backyard is around 13/16

 

DCA full record median (1888-on):  15"

DCA river location median (1949-on):  12.5"

DCA 1981-2010 median:  12"

DCA 1987-current:  10"

 

IAD Full record median (1963-on):  18"

IAD 1981-10 median:  17"

IAD 1987-current: 15"

 

Sobering

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DCA full record median (1888-on):  15"

DCA river location median (1949-on):  12.5"

DCA 1981-2010 median:  12"

DCA 1987-current:  10"

 

IAD Full record median (1963-on):  18"

IAD 1981-10 median:  17"

IAD 1987-current: 15"

 

Sobering

 

I have a post about this that I wrote in December... I'm kinda hoping it stops snowing soon so we can run it. 

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Yeah, I think I like median better for us at least. Places that get more consistent figures every year might be totally fine on an avg.. and an avg is fine for the general consumer, but in many cases the median seems to be more realistic at least for a whole winter. 

Defo not consistent here lol. Since "Epic" winter where I had 68", the last 3 have been: 20, 1.8, 9.5, and so far this winter 18.5. 

 

I actually did pretty well here in the Dec 2010 storm that screwed DC-BWI... just caught enough of the western side to get about 6".

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there's plenty of west tracks on the members too. It's a tricky ride here. Expectations should be set accordingly. We really just don't know but a beautiful cold miller A is a low probability at this lead. Heck, it's a low prob at any lead in these parts.

The trough axis sucks but for a while the guidance suggested some nao ridging and a better timed high to help. Those features have gone away and so did the snowier solution.
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DCA full record median (1888-on):  15"

DCA river location median (1949-on):  12.5"

DCA 1981-2010 median:  12"

DCA 1987-current:  10"

 

IAD Full record median (1963-on):  18"

IAD 1981-10 median:  17"

IAD 1987-current: 15"

 

Sobering

 

Good stuff, thanks for the information. This should be applied to many in the Mid-Atlantic.

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Look at Harford County on that map. Pretty crazy range for average snowfall across one county! I do think the map is a little low on the averages around the Bay.

 

EDIT: Baltimore Co. has a bigger range. I didn't see that lol...

I think the "bay "effect is overdone on that map, esp in Cecil and Harford counties. There is typically quite a range across Baltimore county, but again I dont buy the really low numbers near the bay.

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