clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 There is just an endless string of vorts ripping across the CONUS on this run. There are 2 more to watch after the Sunday monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Great runs tonight. No where to go but up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Great runs tonight. No where to go but up Solid dry humor.. Love it I hate to be the bearer of bad news here, but the way I see it many of our meaningful teleconnections are looking undesirable leading into the next 10-12 days. -AO likely turning positive +NAO remaining steadfast or turning potentially even more positive -PNA sustaining negative or crashing despite an operational run or two depicting otherwise MJO in phase 6 perhaps entering into the circle of the death, hence possible ridge on the east side Possible benefits to snowstorm is -EPO regime for clod air and an active southern stream for phasing. I just see a lot of sleepless nights and eventual heartache for costal plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Anyone see the 10hPa forecasts from the 0z gfs tonight? From now till 240? Worth a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z GFS cuts the unicorn to Detroit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z EuRO has the IANCORN storm passing to our south and giving a 4-8" event for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z EuRO has the IANCORN storm passing to our south and giving a 4-8" event for the entire area. We deserve it!! A little blast from the past if you can remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z EuRO has the IANCORN storm passing to our south and giving a 4-8" event for the entire area. Yeah? That's good news if it still is showing that and not the cutter the GFS is now showing. You mean the one next weekend, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 EPS doesn't support a straight up cutter. I can't tell if the means for slp moved West from the last run. I think it did but I'll let matt and Wes confirm A solid # of snowy outputs remain in the members FWIW. This one is going to be a handful in many ways. I'm going to lay off overthinking it for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 EPS doesn't support a straight up cutter. I can't tell if the means for slp moved West from the last run. I think it did but I'll let matt and Wes confirm A solid # of snowy outputs remain in the members FWIW. This one is going to be a handful in many ways. I'm going to lay off overthinking it for a while Bring it home Bob. You've got a lot of negativity and model roller coasteritis to overcome in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Bring it home Bob. You've got a lot of negativity and model roller coasteritis to overcome in here. I don't see the negativity. Do you want people to not note the cutter as modeled on the GFS? I think that frames the general talk about how that system might evolve. It could cut, it could stay south of us, or in-between, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Bring it home Bob. You've got a lot of negativity and model roller coasteritis to overcome in here. I just relay what I see. I'm never happy when things go to hell but it doesn't bug me all that much. It is what it is. 6z gefs is all over the place so good and bad op runs with mixed or no ensemble support past d5 or so shouldnt be looked at as anything more than a possibility. A cutter is always possible with a timed event and no stable block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't see the negativity. Do you want people to not note the cutter as modeled on the GFS? I think that frames the general talk about how that system might evolve. It could cut, it could stay south of us, or in-between, no? Do you ever notice that you never see Wes comment on EVERY SINGLE ASPECT of EVERY SINGLE MODEL RUN? Wonder why? We/ve got people picking apart every detail of every model run, and, yes, looking for every negative thing they can find. Oh, and it's being done mostly by people with 1/100th the knowledge of Wes. I don't comment because I don't know sh*t. Others need to consider that option. As for the fantasy storm ..... wouldn't it be better at this point to just say there's a good chance of a storm, it's early Feb, might be a good one? Look at Bob's posts. He always lays out what's out there, and always looks on the bright side. It may just be me, but I find reading optimism much easier than reading pessimism. BTW, this is not directed at anyone personally, including you. It's just a general theme around here. That's why someone the other day called this forum bi-polar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow. Ok. So what are the acceptable times to comment on a model run? I should have said, 6z cuts it to the lakes like 0z did but, holy goodness that can't be right? The meta-criticism of people talking about weather on this board really wearies me some times. PS: You got me, by the way. I am no Wes. Or bobc. Or ian. Or matt. Or tracker. Or any of the other really awesome posters. I will now refrain from noting that something doesn't look good on a run. Done and done. That storm on Valentine's day! A lock! Snow for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Do you ever notice that you never see Wes comment on EVERY SINGLE ASPECT of EVERY SINGLE MODEL RUN? Wonder why? I think many in here are here to have fun and track snow potential. But if you are serious about meteorology, you should definitely read about Chaos theory / Dr. Lorenz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 There is nothing wrong with analyzing model runs. It is like solving a math puzzle each time. Well, like Bob solving it, ahem. I am just a weenie. Apparently, other forums think we have the best amateur members. We all learn something from them. It is not unreasonable to be unhappy with a run and express our feelings in very different ways. We all like severe weather around here. We ROOT for snowstorms. What else would be the point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow. Ok. So what are the acceptable times to comment on a model run? I should have said, 6z cuts it to the lakes like 0z did but, holy goodness that can't be right? The meta-criticism of people talking about weather on this board really wearies me some times. PS: You got me, by the way. I am no Wes. Or bobc. Or ian. Or matt. Or tracker. Or any of the other really awesome posters. I will now refrain from noting that something doesn't look good on a run. Done and done. That storm on Valentine's day! A lock! Snow for all! a valentines day storm would be sweet -- my mom is taking the kiddo for the weekend, and my MIL is going to visit friends. Three-day weekend with just the hubby and I... snow would be awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 a valentines day storm would be sweet -- my mom is taking the kiddo for the weekend, and my MIL is going to visit friends. Three-day weekend with just the hubby and I... snow would be awesome Lets plan on that. Check my post (and a few others) on your shoulder in banter. Pay special attention to the rehab from whatever you have done. Mine has never been right in the 20 years since surgery because I didn't rehab it properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lets plan on that. Check my post (and a few others) on your shoulder in banter. Pay special attention to the rehab from whatever you have done. Mine has never been right in the 20 years since surgery because I didn't rehab it properly. I read it, thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Do you ever notice that you never see Wes comment on EVERY SINGLE ASPECT of EVERY SINGLE MODEL RUN? Wonder why? We/ve got people picking apart every detail of every model run, and, yes, looking for every negative thing they can find. Oh, and it's being done mostly by people with 1/100th the knowledge of Wes. I don't comment because I don't know sh*t. Others need to consider that option. As for the fantasy storm ..... wouldn't it be better at this point to just say there's a good chance of a storm, it's early Feb, might be a good one? Look at Bob's posts. He always lays out what's out there, and always looks on the bright side. It may just be me, but I find reading optimism much easier than reading pessimism. BTW, this is not directed at anyone personally, including you. It's just a general theme around here. That's why someone the other day called this forum bi-polar. Uh, gfs is a disaster at h5 for next weekend. Wow This is an awesome thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42628-cold-and-snow-lovers-only/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Bring it home Bob. You've got a lot of negativity and model roller coasteritis to overcome in here. Nobody and I mean NOBODY here should be going negative tilt over a storm depiction that's 8 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nobody and I mean NOBODY here should be going negative tilt over a storm depiction that's 8 days away And that's the weird part, I don't think anyone was. Unless noting the GFS showed a cutter is being negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nobody and I mean NOBODY here should be going negative tilt over a storm depiction that's 8 days awayNeg tilt ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looking at the EPS members, they are very snowy for the d8-10 thing. Almost unanimous for my yard and 5" on the means. I know there's flaws in the snow algorithm but it's a bullish look fwiw. At this stage I kinda dgaf about the gfs op. Even if it's a good solution. I'm not riding the instant gratification roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nobody and I mean NOBODY here should be going negative tilt over a storm depiction that's 8 days away unfortunately the pattern isnt that good and past patterns similar to this one didn't produce big snows for DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 unfortunately the pattern isnt that good and past patterns similar to this one didn't produce big snows for DC... It is hard to argue against this and the maps you posted in the other thread. All expectations for winter weather should be tempered by this reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 out of 10 6-10 day euro ens analogs, 4 produced snow for DCA...a 3.1", 2.7", 1", and a 0.4"...the other 6 had no snow....not really the makings of a big event for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 unfortunately the pattern isnt that good and past patterns similar to this one didn't produce big snows for DC... Maybe a four inch event? Some messy small events. Slogging through models that give mediocre outcomes makes for a tough winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 out of 10 6-10 day euro ens analogs, 4 produced snow for DCA...a 3.1", 2.7", 1", and a 0.4"...the other 6 had no snow....not really the makings of a big event for DC Makes sense. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Maybe a four inch event? Some messy small events. Slogging through models that give mediocre outcomes makes for a tough winter. yeah..not really sure about Paeonian Springs...I am talking about DC...you guys could get 20",...I really dont know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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