Heisy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Weather models and poker... Two games where you can be holding a straight flush one moment and still get beat by a late European entry at the next. yea, I won't make it to my 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Slightly OT but Most of the ensembles seem to be retrograding or breaking down the blocking in the post D10 time frame. GEFS has negative height anomolies over Alaska by day 16. This looks like a new, probably milder pattern for us. Athough, Canada and the northern tier should remain cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 My post rate is 1/10th yours and yet I seem to ruffle more feathers... gotta learn the "happy warrior" stance that you have. I got some mad skillz bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Slightly OT but Most of the ensembles seem to be retrograding or breaking down the blocking in the post D10 time frame. GEFS has negative height anomolies over Alaska by day 16. This looks like a new, probably milder pattern for us. Athough, Canada and the northern tier should remain cold. they've been mentioning it in the NE thread all the more reason we need to cash in over the next 10 days ....and then there's the CFS2 that says "dun worry" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 yea, I won't make it to my 50's that's what the stock market is for it's the other legal gambling racket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 screwed again....17 in Baltimore City, 17 in Laurel, and 16.7 at BWI You don't have to worry about Laurel beating you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You don't have to worry about Laurel beating you. I was j/k, but Laurel has beaten me in the past due to your westward location and elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 they've been mentioning it in the NE thread all the more reason we need to cash in over the next 10 days ....and then there's the CFS2 that says "dun worry" It's a bit ugly verbatim in ensembleland. Big ball of low heights in the goa and +nao/ao combo. My guess is it's transient like all other relaxations but it could be the door swinging. Hard to worry with so much in front of us. If it looks the same in a week+ we can resume the convo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Weather models and poker... Two games where you can be holding a straight flush one moment and still get beat by a late European entry at the next. LOL so perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Embrace your outer weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm curious why he is always posting in here....No one to talk to in the Philly subforum? You are pretty much right. I lurk here a lot because you guys are always talking about the weather and I enjoy that especially in winter plus some of you are pretty funny. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Good thing teachers aren't allowed to hit anymore. Your students would be cryin for their mamas There's no crying in Physics... maybe just some light dabbing of tears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You are pretty much right. I lurk here a lot because you guys are always talking about the weather and I enjoy that especially in winter plus some of you are pretty funny. :-) This place has sitcom potential. I'm not sure what is better, the analysis or humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 There's no crying in Physics... maybe just some light dabbing of tears. yes, but punching is such an excellent example of F=MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I only get angry at Icez when he uses the words "We" or "Us"....It might look like there is we in weather....but there isn't...unless you live within 6 blocks of me there is no we... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's a bit ugly verbatim in ensembleland. Big ball of low heights in the goa and +nao/ao combo. My guess is it's transient like all other relaxations but it could be the door swinging. Hard to worry with so much in front of us. If it looks the same in a week+ we can resume the convo It would suck but Don's post makes me feel better... weenies, close your eyes! 4. The overall pattern evolution seems to be unfolding reasonably similar to 1899 albeit without the kind of extreme-to-historic cold seen that winter. That evolution also saw a temporary period of moderation followed by snowfall and severe cold. That kind of evolution still looks good on a lot of the guidance, even as day-to-day details remain to be resolved. The ensembles also suggest a renewed Arctic assault in the extended range. Hence, cities such as Baltimore, New York, and Philadelphia likely have not seen their last single-digit readings of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Uh, gfs is a disaster at h5 for next weekend. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Uh, gfs is a disaster at h5 for next weekend. Wow Already phasing over the 4 corners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Uh, gfs is a disaster at h5 for next weekend. Wow lakes cutter....What an awful run...lol....GFS has been on a bad streak ever since 1/2....It is having a bad 2014... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Huge Cutter coming this run... no one on the EC is happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 High slides east and the unicorn disappears to toledo. A complete dud run for the next eight days for the 0z GFS. Boo. Hope the Euro holds for Monday at least and I wake up to that news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Uh, gfs is a disaster at h5 for next weekend. Wow All or nothing pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 lakes cutter....What an awful run...lol....GFS has been on a bad streak ever since 1/2....It is having a bad 2014... Super slow with the vort. I thought the euro was supposed to hang stuff back and its the quickest even before the 0z gfs rolled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Huge changes from the 18Z run. That is one massive storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Even more support for being a 12z man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 All or nothing pattern? we tend to defer to models a bit too much on this board...I dont think the GFS is going to properly handle an event 9 days away at low resolution...but I think we have to keep in mind the pattern isnt really supportive of a big event for the coastal plain...I'm sure in some random 10" winter like 1951-52 if there were models, they would have had huge solutions too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thank god. A lakes cutter. Rather have now then next Friday/Saturday. Will change many many more times. Just really focused on Monday, which stinks also if it was up to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 0z runs have become night terrors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well a cutter would match the earlier 500mb pattern better. I'm out.. till morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 we tend to defer to models a bit too much on this board...I dont think the GFS is going to properly handle an event 9 days away at low resolution...but I think we have to keep in mind the pattern isnt really supportive of a big event for the coastal plain...I'm sure in some random 10" winter like 1951-52 if there were models, they would have had huge solutions too Much comes down to spacing of the waves and speed of progression. Gfs slowed it way down and phased it 1000 miles too early. Euro is much quicker in the flow at this stage. H5 pattern requires a faster solution because the window is super tight. It's unusual seeing the gfs with a slower progression than the euro at these leads. I guess I gotta stay up for a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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