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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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It's a bit ugly verbatim in ensembleland. Big ball of low heights in the goa and +nao/ao combo. My guess is it's transient like all other relaxations but it could be the door swinging. Hard to worry with so much in front of us. If it looks the same in a week+ we can resume the convo

 

It would suck but Don's post makes me feel better...

 

weenies, close your eyes!

 

4. The overall pattern evolution seems to be unfolding reasonably similar to 1899 albeit without the kind of extreme-to-historic cold seen that winter. That evolution also saw a temporary period of moderation followed by snowfall and severe cold. That kind of evolution still looks good on a lot of the guidance, even as day-to-day details remain to be resolved. The ensembles also suggest a renewed Arctic assault in the extended range. Hence, cities such as Baltimore, New York, and Philadelphia likely have not seen their last single-digit readings of the winter.

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All or nothing pattern?

 

we tend to defer to models a bit too much on this board...I dont think the GFS is going to properly handle an event 9 days away at low resolution...but I think we have to keep in mind the pattern isnt really supportive of a big event for the coastal plain...I'm sure in some random 10" winter like 1951-52 if there were models, they would have had huge solutions too

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we tend to defer to models a bit too much on this board...I dont think the GFS is going to properly handle an event 9 days away at low resolution...but I think we have to keep in mind the pattern isnt really supportive of a big event for the coastal plain...I'm sure in some random 10" winter like 1951-52 if there were models, they would have had huge solutions too

Much comes down to spacing of the waves and speed of progression. Gfs slowed it way down and phased it 1000 miles too early. Euro is much quicker in the flow at this stage.

H5 pattern requires a faster solution because the window is super tight. It's unusual seeing the gfs with a slower progression than the euro at these leads. I guess I gotta stay up for a bit...

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Great runs tonight. No where to go but up

Solid dry humor.. Love it

I hate to be the bearer of bad news here, but the way I see it many of our meaningful teleconnections are looking undesirable leading into the next 10-12 days.

-AO likely turning positive

+NAO remaining steadfast or turning potentially even more positive

-PNA sustaining negative or crashing despite an operational run or two depicting otherwise

MJO in phase 6 perhaps entering into the circle of the death, hence possible ridge on the east side

Possible benefits to snowstorm is -EPO regime for clod air and an active southern stream for phasing.

I just see a lot of sleepless nights and eventual heartache for costal plains

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