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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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I'm sorry for how I expressed my view. Here's what I meant: If Wes were to go into the NYC subforum and express serious reservations about an upcoming period, the question would be is he talking about DC/Southern MD or NYC? Same thing here-- When icez is salivating over a pattern, is he talking about his back yard or 40S? Philly has obviously been able to score pretty easily this winter, including 8"+ events, so he has every reason to continue to be excited about the LR for himself.....

so what is wrong with that?

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Just to clarify, when I make posts in this forum I am talking to you guys like I'm living there. I'm not going "oh wow GFS is amazing" while it shows snow for Philly & rain for DC.

 

So going forward know that when I'm posting in your sub-forum I am a snow lover who is rooting for snow in DC. 

 

I come across as a weenie because I still am one. I stay up late for the EURO, I wake up morning and check the 6z GFS, when I'm out at parties I excuse myself to the bathroom to check the 00z. My girlfriend, while I imagine deep down she questions why she is with me, has finally began to just accept it. That being said I do have some weather background. I studied at California University of PA as a meteorology major for 2.5 years before dropping out to play poker full time(I am a poker dealer at a casino). You can verify that with the forum moderator "Rib" over in the Philly sub-forum. Most of what I hope I bring to the forum is just experience. I've been looking at wx models for 12 years, I've been with this weather nut crew since TWC forums, went to Wright-Weather, and so on...I can't always tell you why a storm is happening, but just years of experience helps me pick up on trends etc. 

 

Sorry to be off-topic it just seemed the conversation was about me on the last page.

 

I guess it seems I post LR maps a lot. Usually I do this because I feel that I am personally good at knowing if a certain pattern has the potential to produce. While some of my friends were messaging me on facebook going crazy about the Wednesday storm when the GFS showed a ton of snow a few nights ago, I didn't buy it, I just didn't like the 500mb setup, and the SE Ridge roaring its ugly head. 

 

At this point I've almost totally moved on from the Wednesday event, so to keep my obsession going I go to the next event which is next weekend, which at this point looks to have some true potential. In 2-3 days if it looks bleaker, I'll then go to the next one, lol. 

 

PS. I know how to spell 'Heisenberg', in fact Breaking Bad & Game of Thrones are my 2nd obsessions...I believe when I created this new username Heisenberg was taken.

 

/autobiography  

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Just to clarify, when I make posts in this forum I am talking to you guys like I'm living there. I'm not going "oh wow GFS is amazing" while it shows snow for Philly & rain for DC.

 

So going forward know that when I'm posting in your sub-forum I am a snow lover who is rooting for snow in DC. 

 

I come across as a weenie because I still am one. I stay up late for the EURO, I wake up morning and check the 6z GFS, when I'm out at parties I excuse myself to the bathroom to check the 00z. My girlfriend, while I imagine deep down she questions why she is with me, has finally began to just accept it. That being said I do have some weather background. I studied at California University of PA as a meteorology major for 2.5 years before dropping out to play poker full time(I am a poker dealer at a casino). You can verify that with the forum moderator "Rib" over in the Philly sub-forum. Most of what I hope I bring to the forum is just experience. I've been looking at wx models for 12 years, I've been with this weather nut crew since TWC forums, went to Wright-Weather, and so on...I can't always tell you why a storm is happening, but just years of experience helps me pick up on trends etc. 

 

Sorry to be off-topic it just seemed the conversation was about me on the last page.

 

PS. I know how to spell 'Heisenberg', in fact Breaking Bad & Game of Thrones are my 2nd obsessions...I believe when I created this new username Heisenberg was taken.

 

/autobiography  

Yep-- and I probably caused a lot of it. Sorry for that. I share your exact habits in terms of heading to bathrooms to check a model run, etc. 

 

The frequent contributors in this sub-forum all have baked-in traits on the sliding scale of optimism. And in the end, everyone has to be IMBY. The best examples are when Wes types his "pessimistic for DC/eastern MD but maybe Leesburg could work out better" line and everyone in here knows exactly what that means in terms of sensible weather in our backyard. 

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Just to clarify, when I make posts in this forum I am talking to you guys like I'm living there. I'm not going "oh wow GFS is amazing" while it shows snow for Philly & rain for DC.

 

So going forward know that when I'm posting in your sub-forum I am a snow lover who is rooting for snow in DC. 

 

I come across as a weenie because I still am one. I stay up late for the EURO, I wake up morning and check the 6z GFS, when I'm out at parties I excuse myself to the bathroom to check the 00z. My girlfriend, while I imagine deep down she questions why she is with me, has finally began to just accept it. That being said I do have some weather background. I studied at California University of PA as a meteorology major for 2.5 years before dropping out to play poker full time(I am a poker dealer at a casino). You can verify that with the forum moderator "Rib" over in the Philly sub-forum. Most of what I hope I bring to the forum is just experience. I've been looking at wx models for 12 years, I've been with this weather nut crew since TWC forums, went to Wright-Weather, and so on...I can't always tell you why a storm is happening, but just years of experience helps me pick up on trends etc. 

 

Sorry to be off-topic it just seemed the conversation was about me on the last page.

 

I guess it seems I post LR maps a lot. Usually I do this because I feel that I am personally good at knowing if a certain pattern has the potential to produce. While some of my friends were messaging me on facebook going crazy about the Wednesday storm when the GFS showed a ton of snow a few nights ago, I didn't buy it, I just didn't like the 500mb setup, and the SE Ridge roaring its ugly head. 

 

At this point I've almost totally moved on from the Wednesday event, so to keep my obsession going I go to the next event which is next weekend, which at this point looks to have some true potential. In 2-3 days if it looks bleaker, I'll then go to the next one, lol. 

 

PS. I know how to spell 'Heisenberg', in fact Breaking Bad & Game of Thrones are my 2nd obsessions...I believe when I created this new username Heisenberg was taken.

 

/autobiography  

You don't have to explain yourself, most people if not all here are sick to some extent. You're definitely a bit ambitious but I like your enthusiasm and positive attitude.

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 I studied at California University of PA as a meteorology major for 2.5 years before dropping out to play poker full time(I am a poker dealer at a casino). 

 

Weather models and poker...  Two games where you can be holding a straight flush one moment and still get beat by a late European entry at the next.

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It's the unfortunate byproduct of being a public school teacher for more than 10 years.... we all are impatient meanies. 

I hear ya. Working with academic policy wonks for 8 years has made most people think all I do is "complain."

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Slightly OT but Most of the ensembles seem to be retrograding or breaking down the blocking in the post D10 time frame. GEFS has negative height anomolies over Alaska by day 16. This looks like a new, probably milder pattern for us. Athough, Canada and the northern tier should remain cold.

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Slightly OT but Most of the ensembles seem to be retrograding or breaking down the blocking in the post D10 time frame. GEFS has negative height anomolies over Alaska by day 16. This looks like a new, probably milder pattern for us. Athough, Canada and the northern tier should remain cold.

they've been mentioning it in the NE thread

all the more reason we need to cash in over the next 10 days

....and then there's the CFS2 that says "dun worry"

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they've been mentioning it in the NE thread

all the more reason we need to cash in over the next 10 days

....and then there's the CFS2 that says "dun worry"

It's a bit ugly verbatim in ensembleland. Big ball of low heights in the goa and +nao/ao combo. My guess is it's transient like all other relaxations but it could be the door swinging. Hard to worry with so much in front of us. If it looks the same in a week+ we can resume the convo

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