mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Interestingly, this year is in between these two extreme storm dates. PD1 had extreme separation so that confluence could linger in Canada and underneath that the s/w could go negatively tilted. It was almost a spring-like s/w because of this separation. In 1996, the PV was very much involved in the dynamic. On the modeling today, the southern wave comes out and partially interacts with the PV but stays separated enough out ahead, ending up between 2 PVs. Hmmm... sometimes you scare me HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Interestingly, this year is in between these two extreme storm dates. PD1 had extreme separation so that confluence could linger in Canada and underneath that the s/w could go negatively tilted. It was almost a spring-like s/w because of this separation. In 1996, the PV was very much involved in the dynamic. On the modeling today, the southern wave comes out and partially interacts with the PV but stays separated enough out ahead, ending up between 2 PVs. Hmmm... Oh. The possibilities!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wow, major confluence, STJ influence, very cold air, this is the big one folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 At least happy hour held for the unicorn storm. It's there and potent-looking out in fantasy-land still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Some gfs flirts us with mix/changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Some gfs flirts us with mix/changeover it is probably like 3-5" then changeover,...total moisture bomb though...over 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Some gfs flirts us with mix/changeover GL low will do it every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wow, major confluence, STJ influence, very cold air, this is the big one folks. BEAUITUFL.gif You're bound to be right someday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 it is probably like 3-5" then changeover,...total moisture bomb though...over 1" Its bordering sleet/snow sounding at 228... so anything before then is snow... but yes its a wet bomb (yes, I took a peek at the sounding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 pic of Ian's place as of February 10, 2014 http://amazingsnow.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/nozawa-onsen-nagano-25-02-2012.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You're bound to be right someday So out of the 3 systems, 1 is suppressed and the other 2 flood us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You're bound to be right someday I'm curious why he is always posting in here....No one to talk to in the Philly subforum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You're bound to be right someday I guess there is almost no better way to do this setup than a liquid explosion...before we know what hit us we have 4" on the ground.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS at the end brings in a Miller Aish system for V-Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 360-384..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm curious why he is always posting in here....No one to talk to in the Philly subforum? He is a nice guy and it is like crickets in Philly so he has no other place to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 He is a nice guy and it is like crickets in Philly so he has no other place to post. Other people talk about 10 day storms and no one bats an eye, I mention it and everyone loses their &@^$ minds To be fair I never said "this one is coming", I just point it out, the 3rd storm has a lot going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So out of the 3 systems, 1 is suppressed and the other 2 flood us? a very weak low goes to our west, but we still get thumped like 4-5"...that isnt really a flood..I'd focus on Monday and 2/8....wednesday looks crappy to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wednesday is a goner IMO, best to focus on Monday & weekend... WHen you see a 1048HP showing up in ideal position, you have to take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 a very weak low goes to our west, but we still get thumped like 4-5"...that isnt really a flood..I'd focus on Monday and 2/8....wednesday looks crappy to me NCEP is being so slow again. I'm out to hr 183 with a random 252 frame popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Agree. Wednesday is the worst of the 3. And it still would be some frozen NW. The 8/9 storm is still there and that is all that matters at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is to pair with Mitchnick's daily CFS update. Grabbed it myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is to pair with Mitchnick's daily CFS update. USA_APCPIPER_sfc_384.gif Grabbed it myself usPrecMonInd1.gif Wow...that's a pretty good match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Other people talk about 10 day storms and no one bats an eye, I mention it and everyone loses their &@^$ minds To be fair I never said "this one is coming", I just point it out, the 3rd storm has a lot going for it. Just change your location to Baltimore and no one will bother you. For some reason certain people in our region lose their mind when people from outside of it post. It is all good don't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm not saying we won't changeover and there aren't risks but the gfs past 192 is more suspect on all fine details than its d5-8. It turns into an ensemble member and uses crayons instead of a sharp pen. Very nice seeing the crazy precip shield. Backs up the euro op and EPS. I haven't seen the EPS have such a bug precip signal at long.leads all year. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Other people talk about 10 day storms and no one bats an eye, I mention it and everyone loses their &@^$ minds To be fair I never said "this one is coming", I just point it out, the 3rd storm has a lot going for it. I'm pretty sure it depends on the way you talk about it.... as people have been gently suggesting to you, being! so! excited! so! often! makes your posts kind of a building caricature. Plus, the past two months have churned out >30" for you and <10" for a big chunk of this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm pretty sure it depends on the way you talk about it.... as people have been gently suggesting to you, being! so! excited! so! often! makes your posts kind of a building caricature. Plus, the past two months have churned out >30" for you and <10" for a big chunk of this sub-forum. There is nothing wrong with his posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 And he is not the only one who gets excited in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm good wirh hberg. He doesn't troll ever. And he chases the big storms. He knows what to look for at long leads. We all know the vast majority don't pan out for anyone let alone at our latitude. When he gets snow he doesn't jump in here and post obs and pics. Most importantly, Walt is one of my favorite tv characters of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Icez is fine but he has been really excited about the LR pattern all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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