stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Some gfs flirts us with mix/changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:42 PM, stormtracker said: Some gfs flirts us with mix/changeover GL low will do it every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:34 PM, Highzenberg said: Wow, major confluence, STJ influence, very cold air, this is the big one folks. BEAUITUFL.gif You're bound to be right someday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:43 PM, zwyts said: it is probably like 3-5" then changeover,...total moisture bomb though...over 1" Its bordering sleet/snow sounding at 228... so anything before then is snow... but yes its a wet bomb (yes, I took a peek at the sounding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 pic of Ian's place as of February 10, 2014 http://amazingsnow.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/nozawa-onsen-nagano-25-02-2012.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:44 PM, Ian said: You're bound to be right someday So out of the 3 systems, 1 is suppressed and the other 2 flood us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:44 PM, Ian said: You're bound to be right someday I'm curious why he is always posting in here....No one to talk to in the Philly subforum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS at the end brings in a Miller Aish system for V-Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:46 PM, gymengineer said: I'm curious why he is always posting in here....No one to talk to in the Philly subforum? He is a nice guy and it is like crickets in Philly so he has no other place to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:49 PM, ravensrule said: He is a nice guy and it is like crickets in Philly so he has no other place to post. Other people talk about 10 day storms and no one bats an eye, I mention it and everyone loses their &@^$ minds To be fair I never said "this one is coming", I just point it out, the 3rd storm has a lot going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wednesday is a goner IMO, best to focus on Monday & weekend... WHen you see a 1048HP showing up in ideal position, you have to take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:51 PM, zwyts said: a very weak low goes to our west, but we still get thumped like 4-5"...that isnt really a flood..I'd focus on Monday and 2/8....wednesday looks crappy to me NCEP is being so slow again. I'm out to hr 183 with a random 252 frame popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Agree. Wednesday is the worst of the 3. And it still would be some frozen NW. The 8/9 storm is still there and that is all that matters at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is to pair with Mitchnick's daily CFS update. Grabbed it myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:58 PM, MN Transplant said: This is to pair with Mitchnick's daily CFS update. USA_APCPIPER_sfc_384.gif Grabbed it myself usPrecMonInd1.gif Wow...that's a pretty good match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:51 PM, Highzenberg said: Other people talk about 10 day storms and no one bats an eye, I mention it and everyone loses their &@^$ minds To be fair I never said "this one is coming", I just point it out, the 3rd storm has a lot going for it. Just change your location to Baltimore and no one will bother you. For some reason certain people in our region lose their mind when people from outside of it post. It is all good don't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm not saying we won't changeover and there aren't risks but the gfs past 192 is more suspect on all fine details than its d5-8. It turns into an ensemble member and uses crayons instead of a sharp pen. Very nice seeing the crazy precip shield. Backs up the euro op and EPS. I haven't seen the EPS have such a bug precip signal at long.leads all year. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 10:51 PM, Highzenberg said: Other people talk about 10 day storms and no one bats an eye, I mention it and everyone loses their &@^$ minds To be fair I never said "this one is coming", I just point it out, the 3rd storm has a lot going for it. I'm pretty sure it depends on the way you talk about it.... as people have been gently suggesting to you, being! so! excited! so! often! makes your posts kind of a building caricature. Plus, the past two months have churned out >30" for you and <10" for a big chunk of this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 11:18 PM, gymengineer said: I'm pretty sure it depends on the way you talk about it.... as people have been gently suggesting to you, being! so! excited! so! often! makes your posts kind of a building caricature. Plus, the past two months have churned out >30" for you and <10" for a big chunk of this sub-forum. There is nothing wrong with his posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 And he is not the only one who gets excited in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm good wirh hberg. He doesn't troll ever. And he chases the big storms. He knows what to look for at long leads. We all know the vast majority don't pan out for anyone let alone at our latitude. When he gets snow he doesn't jump in here and post obs and pics. Most importantly, Walt is one of my favorite tv characters of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Icez is fine but he has been really excited about the LR pattern all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 11:18 PM, gymengineer said: I'm pretty sure it depends on the way you talk about it.... as people have been gently suggesting to you, being! so! excited! so! often! makes your posts kind of a building caricature. Plus, the past two months have churned out >30" for you and <10" for a big chunk of this sub-forum. His posts are just fine. Chill out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ge0 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 11:18 PM, gymengineer said: I'm pretty sure it depends on the way you talk about it.... as people have been gently suggesting to you, being! so! excited! so! often! makes your posts kind of a building caricature. Plus, the past two months have churned out >30" for you and <10" for a big chunk of this sub-forum. I usually just lurk these forums, but are you seriously bitter over snowfall amounts? This winter has been great compared to the past few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 11:28 PM, Ian said: Icez is fine but he has been really excited about the LR pattern all winter. That's because the medium and short range has mostly sucked. Euro's solution is a bit quicker than the gfs. I hope it's right. It would reduce our mix chances a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 11:29 PM, ge0 said: I usually just lurk these forums, but are you seriously bitter over snowfall amounts? This winter has been great compared to the past few. I've never posted anything suggesting I'm bitter---- all I was saying is that a pattern that yields snow for Philly might not yield snow for Richmond or DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 11:29 PM, ge0 said: I usually just lurk these forums, but are you seriously bitter over snowfall amounts? This winter has been great compared to the past few.Part of the issue is some people constantly chase storms that usually don't happen. We've 'piled' up the snow with mostly run of the mill stuff. Eventually it'll happen again but when that's all you talk about you appear to have way too lofty of goals or expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 On 1/30/2014 at 11:32 PM, Ian said: Part of the issue is some people constantly chase storms that usually don't happen. We've 'piled' up the snow with mostly run of the mill stuff. Eventually it'll happen again but when that's all you talk about you appear to have way too lofty of goals or expectations. I guess icez and Ji have something in common. But their approaches are similar to the bizarro world Seinfeld episode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 i dig icez....it is nice to have someone who is bullish all the time...and he doesn't muck up our forum with philly BS even though that is where he lives...He is a giver...I'll take a giver over a taker every day of the week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm sorry for how I expressed my view. Here's what I meant: If Wes were to go into the NYC subforum and express serious reservations about an upcoming period, the question would be is he talking about DC/Southern MD or NYC? Same thing here-- When icez is salivating over a pattern, is he talking about his back yard or 40S? Philly has obviously been able to score pretty easily this winter, including 8"+ events, so he has every reason to continue to be excited about the LR for himself..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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