hosj III Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 He has the crystal ball. Or is it the magic 8-ball? I forget. wat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 From the two storm threat thread: The Unicorn is like 10-12" for DC...solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Best clown map collage yet, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's pretty good dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's pretty good dude. Just to give you an idea how screwed up wxbell's algorithm is, it gives us 2-4 on Wed. Gotta shave those totals off. We can probably survive with only getting 12-18 over the period I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just to give you an idea how screwed up wxbell's algorithm is, it gives us 2-4 on Wed. Gotta shave those totals off. We can probably survive with only getting 12-18 over the period I guess. I don't know dude...anything less than 14-22 is a disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 My poor long range thread won't last a week at this rate. 50 pages by Sunday? Better than crickets I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm not sure I can name many storms with 570 heights over my house. That screams ice event to me down here. It obviously charges the h85 but I'd assume there'd be a warm nose above that SOONER based on history. Still, big ticket ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 JMA looks ominous at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 In late December 1990, there was a decent thump snow and I believe (not near my source right now), it had a setup kind of similar to what's being modeled for late next week. How do you all feel about that comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 In late December 1990, there was a decent thump snow and I believe (not near my source right now), it had a setup kind of similar to what's being modeled for late next week. How do you all feel about that comparison? i remember that storm....i think Dec 27. We got about 3-4 inches. It was a nice event. I dont remember the setup though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 i remember that storm....i think Dec 27. We got about 3-4 inches. It was a nice event. I dont remember the setup though Here are the EWALL links. The idea of the CONUS 500mb map being so unconventional for a snowstorm interested me, and I remember feeling the same way about 1990. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1990/us1227.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1990/us1228.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 not a bad match for the euro pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 not a bad match for the euro pattern that is a close match. I have heard Zwyts use that analog a few this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 In late December 1990, there was a decent thump snow and I believe (not near my source right now), it had a setup kind of similar to what's being modeled for late next week. How do you all feel about that comparison? Colder antecedent air mass?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I try not to post wxbell stuff so delete if necessary. I just think this is an important point. @ hr 186 on both the euro and gfs, height patterns over the ne us and labrador are remarkably similar. It's near perfect placement of strong confluence. I'm not sure I remember these 2 models looking so similar at long leads like this. That feature is make or break for us (along with timing issues of course). Euro has sped up the vort progressing in the SW. This combined with the feature I just pointed out is most of the reason why it was such a nice run. Usually the euro is slower with vorts in the SW because of its bias so I consider the faster timing of the recent run a big + in the overall scheme. If the storm slows down we can easily end up with a miller B or straight up runner/cutter. However, the area of confluence is pretty strong and stable for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ryan Mahue is a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro ensembles look excellent. 6hr precip panels say there is quite a bit of support for the op. I don't think there are many n-w tracks on the members. Lowest slp on the means is along the coast. Maybe someone else can chime in with SV data. From what I'm seeing, an oh valley track is in the minority by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Here are the EWALL links. The idea of the CONUS 500mb map being so unconventional for a snowstorm interested me, and I remember feeling the same way about 1990. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1990/us1227.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1990/us1228.php yeah..it was a decent WAA event here...3-5" though well NW of town got 8-12"...flipped to ZR at the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro ensembles look excellent. 6hr precip panels say there is quite a bit of support for the op. I don't think there are many n-w tracks on the members. Lowest slp on the means is along the coast. Maybe someone else can chime in with SV data. From what I'm seeing, an oh valley track is in the minority by quite a bit. the mean is slightly warmer and further west than the OP but for a mean that far out it is a liquid bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro analogs are so-so except for 2 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Finally, 1994 made the 6-10 day CPC analog list. As for 8-14 day, it has come waaay up from yesterday...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610analog.off.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gifAs for 1990, yeah late next week could have a colder air mass to work with than 12/90. The point of the analog, I guess, is to show at least some precedent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Finally, 1994 made the 6-10 day CPC analog list. As for 8-14 day, it has come waaay up from yesterday... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610analog.off.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif As for 1990, yeah late next week could have a colder air mass to work with than 12/90. The point of the analog, I guess, is to show at least some precedent here. 2 of my euro analogs are 2/2/96 and PD1...lol...though they aren't near the top of the list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 the mean is slightly warmer and further west than the OP but for a mean that far out it is a liquid bomb Is it an improvement from last night or the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Is it an improvement from last night or the same? maybe a tad west, but way wetter...0.70" QPF...that is insane for a mean at day 8/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ryan Mahue is a beast the most beautiful supercell country gets pretty screwed east of rapid city. might have to visit wall drug instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 the most beautiful supercell country gets pretty screwed east of rapid city. might have to visit wall drug instead. haha...usually thats hole is reserved for .....well you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 2 of my euro analogs are 2/2/96 and PD1...lol...though they aren't near the top of the list If the PV were to stick around and become intimately involved, 2/2 wouldn't be so bad...but yeah...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If the PV were to stick around and become intimately involved, 2/2 wouldn't be so bad...but yeah...lol. Interestingly, this year is in between these two extreme storm dates. PD1 had extreme separation so that confluence could linger in Canada and underneath that the s/w could go negatively tilted. It was almost a spring-like s/w because of this separation. In 1996, the PV was very much involved in the dynamic. On the modeling today, the southern wave comes out and partially interacts with the PV but stays separated enough out ahead, ending up between 2 PVs. Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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