ICEDOG27 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hello, As a transplant from the "PA thread" and long time lurker of you folks due to family area's of location (Manassas, Hampstead). Wanted to ask how important is Wednesday's setup, to get us the "unicorn" for the following weekend? I know it would be the best of both worlds to get snow for both, but would it be better to scarifice the snow on Wed, in order for us to get hit better on sat? Was just wondering if we really needed the low to cut on Wed, in order to set up for Sat? Or if Wed does work farther east, resulting in Snow, would that then change the ball game for Sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Word like extrapolating the 84 hour nam is fingernails on a chalkboard through a megaphone with a side order of fork scrapes on plates. True that...but (and that's a big BUT) if you're looking for trends AND it looks like other models at that range..then maybe...just maybe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 True that...but (and that's a big BUT) if you're looking for trends AND it looks like other models at that range..then maybe...just maybe..... I've stopped looking at the nam almost completely unless something is inside 72 but more often inside of 48. I waste enough time as it is. However, the nam is really good with h5 through 48 imo. That's my favorite set of panels when looking for little shifts that mean a lot in sensible outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 these next 10-15 days are by far the most important of my life....including wedding...kids born...redskins superbowl...etc 1. next 10-15 days 2. Red Skins Superbowl 3. Birth of Children 4. Wedding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I was teasing. I'm feelin this vort. Euro saw it, lost it, and brought it back. It's a good sign. And a reasonable progression after the front clears. Best winter week on tap for tracking in a long time. the midweek vort is not far behind it on 84 hr NAM so it's gunna' be flat when it comes by us which is what we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Going off memory here since the Ewall reanalysis hasn't updated for Dec 2013 yet, but isn't the midweek pattern somewhat similar to the pattern that produced the Dec 8th storm? Gradient-type pattern. Certainly mixy looking with the SE ridge battling the eastern Canada PV. The pattern for the unicorn storm does look pretty blah. Certainly not screaming MECS/HECS. It is a decent pattern, but it certainly doesn't support a gigantic storm for the coastal plain...someplace like MRB could get clocked though...I'd favor an inland runner or maybe even up the APPS...I don't think we'd see something coming from the gulf go to the OV or lakes in that pattern...I might start planning my roadtrip to Hagerstown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Worst week to write an article about winter weather chances in a long time. I thought yesterday's was the toughest outlook of the year. I probably be wishy washy about ptype for the 8-9 storm as I'm not sold on the track, not against it, I just don't know and wish there was better blocking a little farther south to make sure we gt a nice southern track. I don't mind these kinds of write-ups as we're not close enough to any of the events to be completely sure of the outcome though I'd bet against me getting much snow with the Wed event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z GFS looks like it's going to like the Monday event better than 6z through 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z GFS looks like it's going to like the Monday event better than 6z through 90. Much more organized than 6z. It's playing catchup. Euro is leading the way so I'll hedge there. Looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z GFS looks like it's going to like the Monday event better than 6z through 90. It is...not a big deal..but still an inch of snow..I wonder if we want a separate thread covering the Monday and Wednesday events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah GFS is better for Monday, still too flat, but not a big problem this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Much more organized than 6z. It's playing catchup. Euro is leading the way so I'll hedge there. Looks fun. I'm going to start a thread on the 2 threats so we keep the BECS threat separate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 central va jackpot. we're good @ 4 day leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Much more organized than 6z. It's playing catchup. Euro is leading the way so I'll hedge there. Looks fun. Not a bad look on the GFS through 105, looks like a centra VA jackpot with good 850s, warm surface though for some of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 2010 blizzards are what got me into this hobby, so I don't recall - how far out did the models start agreeing that something big was afoot on those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 2010 blizzards are what got me into this hobby, so I don't recall - how far out did the models start agreeing that something big was afoot on those? Ridiculous leads. Like d10+. But the current pattern is exponentially more hostile. 2010 had classic blocking and predictable track at unusually long leads. We have none of that this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42640-dual-threat-discussion-threadmonday-23-and-tuesdaywednesday-24-5/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ridiculous leads. Like d10+. But the current pattern is exponentially more hostile. 2010 had classic blocking and predictable track at unusually long leads. We have none of that this time. I figured, but the curiosity was killing me. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Now we all run back to this thread to see if the unicorn is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's a happy place where weenies waste hard earned cash every year endlessly chasing ghosts. It stinks that SV has different euro data like analogs and such. I'll probably get both next year because I have issues. This is a great place to waste my weenie time. I can watch the experts chase ghosts and learn along the way! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 UNICORN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Uni storm is marching up. Even if it misses, this signal is strong as hell. Run after run on multiple models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The unicorn is most assuredly still there. Even in crayola land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 UNICORN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's a perfect dance of hp to the north, confluence, and good vort track. So much can go wrong but I think we end up with some snow out of the period. Weird seeing such a signal with a sketchy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's a perfect dance of hp to the north, confluence, and good vort track. So much can go wrong but I think we end up with some snow out of the period. Weird seeing such a signal with a sketchy pattern. im sure zwyts knows but Im sure we have had 1 or 2 double digit snowstorms in crappy patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Everytime you talk about the "unicorn" it makes me think about the Unicorn Key and Peele sketch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's a perfect dance of hp to the north, confluence, and good vort track. So much can go wrong but I think we end up with some snow out of the period. Weird seeing such a signal with a sketchy pattern. We just need to get it under 180 hours...that's still sketchy time, but at least it's well under truncation. Once we get it to 144, it's Adventure Time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 im sure zwyts knows but Im sure we have had 1 or 2 double digit snowstorms in crappy patterns this is how you do it. Killer antecedent airmass and a friendly wall to the north. Even being progressive in nature the airmass leading in is legit. A tight track would still yield good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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