clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That Euro storm is a frikin monster. That is a 30 incher! Its good to see signals for a storm on every model for that period. The midweek stuff will surprise for some I'm sure. We all know that it will trend colder as we get closer to the events. Gonna be a great week of weather tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wow, its really going out on a limb there. I would have gone T-20", and 10% just to be safe. lol- just relaying raw data from the model. With 51 members at a higher resolution than the GEFS, it's a pretty good signal. Seems to favor central va with the most precip. Long ways to go. Might be a no nevermind or a pleasant surprise. There are no absolutes with weak waves embedded in zipping flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I think an all-snow solution for the midweek storm is unlikely right now, but there's certainly potential for a respectable front-end thump and a majority frozen/freezing precip event. But since Bob didn't mention what the Euro ensembles show, I'm guessing they're mostly rainers There's about 75% (maybe more) ensemble support for some snow with plenty of ok hits. My problem is the flawed wxbell algorithm and marginal temps. In this case I know better than to latch on to those totals. Good number of snowy members down by EZF so there's that. I've been looking down south with metar locations on the raw output to try and wrap my head around where no members show anything. RIC shows little if anything for Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So, just so we have the dates right (the globals have been pretty consistent here), We've got the system Feb 5th (Wed) that continues to look as if it would be ice (at best) to rain with the inland track. Good snows potentially in the OH Vly and Great Lakes. Feb 8th...next Saturday...the GFS/EC and at least yesterday's CMC have been reasonably consistent with this one as well. A rare Miller A with at least for now the high in the right place and we're cold enough for snow. February 8th it is then. Nine days away...this should be fun :-) they've all had it..I think the earliest signal was Euro ensembles a couple days ago, but who knows...all the models have been showing something in that range...and the euro has now shown 2 remarkably similar solutions in back to back runs...It is amazing how much better the models are with something out of the south....in terms of sussing something out....of course it could disappear (not likely) or change in nature and timing and track (likely), but I have a feeling we'll be tracking this storm for the next 9 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So, just so we have the dates right (the globals have been pretty consistent here), We've got the system Feb 5th (Wed) that continues to look as if it would be ice (at best) to rain with the inland track. Good snows potentially in the OH Vly and Great Lakes. Feb 8th...next Saturday...the GFS/EC and at least yesterday's CMC have been reasonably consistent with this one as well. A rare Miller A with at least for now the high in the right place and we're cold enough for snow. February 8th it is then. Nine days away...this should be fun :-) euro has 2-3" of snow on monday morning....GFS has nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 euro has 2-3" of snow on monday morning....GFS has nothing... GFS had that for a couple runs and now has backed off quite a bit the last 24-36hrs or so. A few GEFS members still show a hit, but they are definitely in the minority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS had that for a couple runs and now has backed off quite a bit the last 24-36hrs or so. A few GEFS members still show a hit, but they are definitely in the minority. should we care that the pattern is in no way supportive of a big snowstorm next weekend? I figure a changeover is a pretty good bet for the big one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Tracker called it unicorn at one point. I like that more than DT storm . Denotes storm out in fantasyland. Sent from my iPhone If it comes true, we will name it Unicorn and have all kinds of proof pictures that Unicorns are real! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 There's about 75% (maybe more) ensemble support for some snow with plenty of ok hits. My problem is the flawed wxbell algorithm and marginal temps. In this case I know better than to latch on to those totals. Good number of snowy members down by EZF so there's that. I've been looking down south with metar locations on the raw output to try and wrap my head around where no members show anything. RIC shows little if anything for Wed. I'm not a fan of the wed event.....looks like freezing rain to rain at best for I95. Maybe out west could do better. The feb 9th event looks more interesting but if you look at the euro ens temp forecasts the operational run is on the cold tail of the members so its low temps are somewhat of an outlier. There is another outlier that pushes the max temp to close to 60 suggesting a few members still have the low tracking to our north. Even if that were to occur we'd probably see winter weather. It will be interesting to see what the GFS and euro do to the Monday threat. That's the type of sneaky system that can work in this pattern.....a weak wave after the front gets pulled though by a low going to our north but it needs really good timing to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 euro has 2-3" of snow on monday morning....GFS has nothing... Matt, that's the kind of sneaky system you can get snow out of in a pattern that is not a particularly good one but you need really good timing or it gets suppressed too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm not a fan of the wed event.....looks like freezing rain to rain at best for I95. Maybe out west could do better. The feb 9th event looks more interesting that if you look at the euro ens temp forecast the operational run is on the cold tail of the members so its low temps are somewhat of an outlier. There is another outlier that pushes the max temp to close to 60 suggesting a few members still have the low tracking to our north. Even if that were to occur we'd probably see winter weather. It will be interesting to see what the GFS and euro do to the Monday threat. That's the type of sneaky system that can work in this pattern.....a weak wave after the front gets pulled though by a low going to our north but it needs really good timing to work. I'm just looking for ways to do better on the front of the storm. It's intriguing that the GEFS members are re-introducing weaker solutions with less amped track. 6z gfs is less amped with the vort as a whole. Not trying to imply this thing is going to be a good snow producer. Zero chance at that. A weaker / flatter solution could allow more of a cold push from hp to the north. Thicknesses seem to favor "some" snow on the front before ip/zr/rn. Lemons out of lemonade I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 should we care that the pattern is in no way supportive of a big snowstorm next weekend? I figure a changeover is a pretty good bet for the big one... Going off memory here since the Ewall reanalysis hasn't updated for Dec 2013 yet, but isn't the midweek pattern somewhat similar to the pattern that produced the Dec 8th storm? Gradient-type pattern. Certainly mixy looking with the SE ridge battling the eastern Canada PV. The pattern for the unicorn storm does look pretty blah. Certainly not screaming MECS/HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM looks like it could get precip up here for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM looks like it could get precip up here for Monday? It has the vort. All models have it. GFS want's nothing to do with the surface though. Maybe that changes in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 NAM looks like it could get precip up here for Monday? Yeah but it's warm. Although a wave in Arkansas extrapolated out may be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 There's about 75% (maybe more) ensemble support for some snow with plenty of ok hits. My problem is the flawed wxbell algorithm and marginal temps. In this case I know better than to latch on to those totals. Good number of snowy members down by EZF so there's that. I've been looking down south with metar locations on the raw output to try and wrap my head around where no members show anything. RIC shows little if anything for Wed. I've noticed repeated reference to "wxbell" in this thread. Can you provide a brief explanation? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 If it comes true, we will name it Unicorn and have all kinds of proof pictures that Unicorns are real! And poop rainbows too! lol. MAN I want this unicorn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Tracker called it unicorn at one point. I like that more than DT storm . Denotes storm out in fantasyland. Sent from my iPhone Yeah...just a reference to the time frame, not necessarily the storm. It's still in unicorn range. It'll soon be in Perfect 300 range....bowling score...possible..but still a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I've noticed repeated reference to "wxbell" in this thread. Can you provide a brief explanation? Thanks! It's a service provider of models and weather data. You can get european operational and model output in higher resolution than on non pay for view sites. http://models.weatherbell.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I've noticed repeated reference to "wxbell" in this thread. Can you provide a brief explanation? Thanks! http://www.weatherbell.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's a service provider of models and weather data. You can get european operational and model output in higher resolution than on non pay for view sites. http://models.weatherbell.com/ It's a happy place where weenies waste hard earned cash every year endlessly chasing ghosts. It stinks that SV has different euro data like analogs and such. I'll probably get both next year because I have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 With Philly having such a banner winter, I'm all for our area getting a Hecs, while it hugs the coast and flips them to rain. Those events are rare, but possible. Great antecedent cold air mass should really help, even with the Parent HIGH leaving, there's a broad area of HP over the Midwest. I'll just have to whoop on you more in fantasy next year, Huff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah but it's warm. Although a wave in Arkansas extrapolated out may be interesting. It is warm in our area at 00z Monday but so is the Euro, as the storm approaches things cool off. 84 hr NAM 500 map looks pretty similar to the 0z Euro at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Word like extrapolating the 84 hour nam is fingernails on a chalkboard through a megaphone with a side order of fork scrapes on plates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 these next 10-15 days are by far the most important of my life....including wedding...kids born...redskins superbowl...etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Word like extrapolating the 84 hour nam is fingernails on a chalkboard through a megaphone with a side order of fork scrapes on plates. Not really extrapolating, just saying that at 84h the NAM paints a similar picture to the Euro for 00z on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Word like extrapolating the 84 hour nam is fingernails on a chalkboard through a megaphone with a side order of fork scrapes on plates. Yeah its the 84 hr NAM but it does look like it would support a decent southern vort that could give us a couple inches ala EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not really extrapolating, just saying that at 84h the NAM paints a similar picture to the Euro for 00z on Monday. I was teasing. I'm feelin this vort. Euro saw it, lost it, and brought it back. It's a good sign. And a reasonable progression after the front clears. Best winter week on tap for tracking in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I was teasing. I'm feelin this vort. Euro saw it, lost it, and brought it back. It's a good sign. And a reasonable progression after the front clears. Best winter week on tap for tracking in a long time. I'm gonna write an article tomorrow....that'll be the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm gonna write an article tomorrow....that'll be the kiss of death. Worst week to write an article about winter weather chances in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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