Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's a service provider of models and weather data. You can get european operational and model output in higher resolution than on non pay for view sites. http://models.weatherbell.com/ It's a happy place where weenies waste hard earned cash every year endlessly chasing ghosts. It stinks that SV has different euro data like analogs and such. I'll probably get both next year because I have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 With Philly having such a banner winter, I'm all for our area getting a Hecs, while it hugs the coast and flips them to rain. Those events are rare, but possible. Great antecedent cold air mass should really help, even with the Parent HIGH leaving, there's a broad area of HP over the Midwest. I'll just have to whoop on you more in fantasy next year, Huff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah but it's warm. Although a wave in Arkansas extrapolated out may be interesting. It is warm in our area at 00z Monday but so is the Euro, as the storm approaches things cool off. 84 hr NAM 500 map looks pretty similar to the 0z Euro at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Word like extrapolating the 84 hour nam is fingernails on a chalkboard through a megaphone with a side order of fork scrapes on plates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 these next 10-15 days are by far the most important of my life....including wedding...kids born...redskins superbowl...etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Word like extrapolating the 84 hour nam is fingernails on a chalkboard through a megaphone with a side order of fork scrapes on plates. Not really extrapolating, just saying that at 84h the NAM paints a similar picture to the Euro for 00z on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Word like extrapolating the 84 hour nam is fingernails on a chalkboard through a megaphone with a side order of fork scrapes on plates. Yeah its the 84 hr NAM but it does look like it would support a decent southern vort that could give us a couple inches ala EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not really extrapolating, just saying that at 84h the NAM paints a similar picture to the Euro for 00z on Monday. I was teasing. I'm feelin this vort. Euro saw it, lost it, and brought it back. It's a good sign. And a reasonable progression after the front clears. Best winter week on tap for tracking in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I was teasing. I'm feelin this vort. Euro saw it, lost it, and brought it back. It's a good sign. And a reasonable progression after the front clears. Best winter week on tap for tracking in a long time. I'm gonna write an article tomorrow....that'll be the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm gonna write an article tomorrow....that'll be the kiss of death. Worst week to write an article about winter weather chances in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEDOG27 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hello, As a transplant from the "PA thread" and long time lurker of you folks due to family area's of location (Manassas, Hampstead). Wanted to ask how important is Wednesday's setup, to get us the "unicorn" for the following weekend? I know it would be the best of both worlds to get snow for both, but would it be better to scarifice the snow on Wed, in order for us to get hit better on sat? Was just wondering if we really needed the low to cut on Wed, in order to set up for Sat? Or if Wed does work farther east, resulting in Snow, would that then change the ball game for Sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Word like extrapolating the 84 hour nam is fingernails on a chalkboard through a megaphone with a side order of fork scrapes on plates. True that...but (and that's a big BUT) if you're looking for trends AND it looks like other models at that range..then maybe...just maybe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 True that...but (and that's a big BUT) if you're looking for trends AND it looks like other models at that range..then maybe...just maybe..... I've stopped looking at the nam almost completely unless something is inside 72 but more often inside of 48. I waste enough time as it is. However, the nam is really good with h5 through 48 imo. That's my favorite set of panels when looking for little shifts that mean a lot in sensible outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 these next 10-15 days are by far the most important of my life....including wedding...kids born...redskins superbowl...etc 1. next 10-15 days 2. Red Skins Superbowl 3. Birth of Children 4. Wedding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I was teasing. I'm feelin this vort. Euro saw it, lost it, and brought it back. It's a good sign. And a reasonable progression after the front clears. Best winter week on tap for tracking in a long time. the midweek vort is not far behind it on 84 hr NAM so it's gunna' be flat when it comes by us which is what we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Worst week to write an article about winter weather chances in a long time. I thought yesterday's was the toughest outlook of the year. I probably be wishy washy about ptype for the 8-9 storm as I'm not sold on the track, not against it, I just don't know and wish there was better blocking a little farther south to make sure we gt a nice southern track. I don't mind these kinds of write-ups as we're not close enough to any of the events to be completely sure of the outcome though I'd bet against me getting much snow with the Wed event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z GFS looks like it's going to like the Monday event better than 6z through 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z GFS looks like it's going to like the Monday event better than 6z through 90. Much more organized than 6z. It's playing catchup. Euro is leading the way so I'll hedge there. Looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah GFS is better for Monday, still too flat, but not a big problem this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 central va jackpot. we're good @ 4 day leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Much more organized than 6z. It's playing catchup. Euro is leading the way so I'll hedge there. Looks fun. Not a bad look on the GFS through 105, looks like a centra VA jackpot with good 850s, warm surface though for some of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 2010 blizzards are what got me into this hobby, so I don't recall - how far out did the models start agreeing that something big was afoot on those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 2010 blizzards are what got me into this hobby, so I don't recall - how far out did the models start agreeing that something big was afoot on those? Ridiculous leads. Like d10+. But the current pattern is exponentially more hostile. 2010 had classic blocking and predictable track at unusually long leads. We have none of that this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ridiculous leads. Like d10+. But the current pattern is exponentially more hostile. 2010 had classic blocking and predictable track at unusually long leads. We have none of that this time. I figured, but the curiosity was killing me. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Now we all run back to this thread to see if the unicorn is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's a happy place where weenies waste hard earned cash every year endlessly chasing ghosts. It stinks that SV has different euro data like analogs and such. I'll probably get both next year because I have issues. This is a great place to waste my weenie time. I can watch the experts chase ghosts and learn along the way! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 UNICORN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Uni storm is marching up. Even if it misses, this signal is strong as hell. Run after run on multiple models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The unicorn is most assuredly still there. Even in crayola land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 UNICORN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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