Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah. And for clarification I was talking about the 144 thing. Not the unicorn storm You're naming it already? I guess it's better than (J)anus from last week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm a real rookie at this, so bare with me...When we're talking about these runs right now, are we talking about the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 NCEP site is slow as molasses...so I'll ask, when you say "cut" are you talking into Ohio, or just to our NW? Guess that would have an impact on whether we get something on the front end. this answer ur question? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_153_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=153&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm a real rookie at this, so bare with me...When we're talking about these runs right now, are we talking about the GFS? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm a real rookie at this, so bare with me...When we're talking about these runs right now, are we talking about the GFS? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 this answer ur question? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_153_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=153&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Road trip to CLEVELAND!!! EDIT: but seriously, it's below freezing at the surface even through DC (eyeballing the 2-m temperature), with lots of precip up through that point. Would be some serious icing late Tuesday into Tuesday night before it rains if that's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm a real rookie at this, so bare with me...When we're talking about these runs right now, are we talking about the GFS? Yes, only 18z stuff that runs is the gfs/nam/rgem. Euro runs twice a day. 12:45 am/pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Maybe wizards beat clippers tonight and gfs and euro go back to snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 It really wouldn't take that much to luck into a better solution. It's more of a runner than a true cutter. Weaken the storm and a bit more confluence and things change pretty quick. As it stands now, we just can't keep it under us. Even so, as mitch said it wouldn't take much to go colder on the front end. I like the storm. Even verbatim on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 It really wouldn't take that much to luck into a better solution. It's more of a runner than a true cutter. Weaken the storm and a bit more confluence and things change pretty quick. As it stands now, we just can't keep it under us. Even so, as mitch said it wouldn't take much to go colder on the front end. I like the storm. Even verbatim on this run. Is that thing trying to hint at some sort of re-development off the coast (I can only see up to 153, so this may be a moot question)? Not that it will do a lot, but wonder if we get more dry-slotted after snow/ice, and before it cools off again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 It really wouldn't take that much to luck into a better solution. It's more of a runner than a true cutter. Weaken the storm and a bit more confluence and things change pretty quick. As it stands now, we just can't keep it under us. Even so, as mitch said it wouldn't take much to go colder on the front end. I like the storm. Even verbatim on this run. Amen. Surely nobody needs reminding that cad usually gets stronger as we get closer. Some parts of the area do very well with this setup. Be nice to see that thing get to Knoxville and jump to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Is that thing trying to hint at some sort of re-development off the coast (I can only see up to 153, so this may be a moot question)? Not that it will do a lot, but wonder if we get more dry-slotted after snow/ice, and before it cools off again. Euro did it. Redeveloped off of ACY and destroyed the interior. It's possible but we would need a further east with the primary and a quick jump (not sure this is possible unless something gets in the way up north). It's a bad ul pattern for a miller b for us so if it goes that way we need to maximize the front and hope for a dryslot. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 18z at day 9......insert zwts face Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The unicorn storm is totally there. And it is beautiful - until it gets too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 For Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 That is one strange ass solution for d9-10. Massive precip shield outruns a lp hanging back in TX and thermals are all jacked up. We can go ahead and take it as a signal for a storm and toss the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I hate 10 day trackers. In 5 long days it will be 5 long days away and probably a northern stream system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 For Matt Meh 12 hour event. What happened to the 24 hour snow events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 mark my words. It won't happen exactly as the 18z gfs shows it on 1/28/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 mark my words. It won't happen exactly as the 18z gfs shows it on 1/28/14 Safe bet. Probably won't happen exactly like today's 12Z Euro either, but we can hope for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 mark my words. It won't happen exactly as the 18z gfs shows it on 1/28/14 I give up after the crayons and pencils come out @ 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 gfs says nope to monday. It's squashed south. But is that a good thing for Wed?It's actually the opposite it seems the more amped the wave Monday gets the more it forces the baroclinic zone south for the wed storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Climo argues against a 12 inch + snow in this area anytime soon. RE 09/10 vs long term frequencies. Since 1979, BWI has had at least one 12+ inch snow every 3-4 years (the exception being the 6 year period between the 1987 and 1993 storms). Its been four years now, and if feast or famine is the "new normal", then we are overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Now THATS a good setup Day 8-9...We actually have confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Doug Kammerer channel 4 DC just said we go from snow and cold to rain and potentially flooding rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Maybe frozen at start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Start up that thread. I'd be in until I'm out. Done. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Doug Kammerer channel 4 DC just said we go from snow and cold to rain and potentially flooding rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Maybe frozen at start. So what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 So what?What's jays minty mix thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 EPS members showing interest in monday and wednesday still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Climo always argues against that around here. Not always, just usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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