mitchnick Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 the feb 5-6 event is the hearbreaker it seems....been waiting forever for a high qpf event and it comes as rain? wait until the HECS behind it does the same thing! you forget where we live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 WinterWx beat me to it so i will leave that alone. There are definitely more complainers about the heat around here than the cold. One reason is because we do heat a hell of alot better around here than cold. I am going to remind you in the summer to start a hot lovers thread with a pic of me in my banana hammock. Well, ain't that the truth!!! Yeah, we get cold around here but other than something unusual like this month, it's typically short-lived. But summers...those just drag on, and on, and on, and ...! Getting 90s with awful humidity last a whole lot longer here, just the nature of the region I guess. It's far easier to have a warmer than normal winter with little snow than it is to have a cooler summer. Last summer was relatively pleasant after the 3 scorchers prior to that. EDIT: I will say that fall is probably my favorite season, or a close call with winter. Yeah, I love winter more and follow possible snow events as they come, but it's so fickle and can be very frustrating. Fall, on the other hand...I'm not thinking of snow at that point, and it's such a nice relief after the heat of summer, getting those nights in the 50s or 40s, and mild to crisp days (and the changing foliage, too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Not to be too much of a downer, but seems like a few days or so ago up until recently, the middle of next week was looking great, and that has now kind of fallen apart (for now). I don't think many of us thought it looked great (as in a high prob setup for all snow). Just that it looked like the next op. And it still very much is. I've been leaning towards a mixed event. But hoping for all snow of course. The problem came with the sweet solutions of a timed event in a hostile pattern. Draws us in like ants on spilled soda. I'm not even worried about "the big one" next weekend. We'll see how the wave goes monday and then figure out how to squeeze some snow, sleet, and ice out of the next one. I'm sure you think like me. Wintry precip is wintry precip. We aren't a snow capital except once every 6-7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 WinterWx beat me to it so i will leave that alone. There are definitely more complainers about the heat around here than the cold. One reason is because we do heat a hell of alot better around here than cold. I am going to remind you in the summer to start a hot lovers thread with a pic of me in my banana hammock.Pervs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 gfs says nope to monday. It's squashed south. But is that a good thing for Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 gfs says nope to monday. It's squashed south. But is that a good thing for Wed? I am willing to pass on Mon and Wed if we get the Euro fantasy land solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I don't think many of us thought it looked great (as in a high prob setup for all snow). Just that it looked like the next op. And it still very much is. I've been leaning towards a mixed event. But hoping for all snow of course. The problem came with the sweet solutions of a timed event in a hostile pattern. Draws us in like ants on spilled soda. I'm not even worried about "the big one" next weekend. We'll see how the wave goes monday and then figure out how to squeeze some snow, sleet, and ice out of the next one. I'm sure you think like me. Wintry precip is wintry precip. We aren't a snow capital except once every 6-7 years. Yeah, I think we're on the same page overall in terms of assessing the look of the set-up in the upcoming weeks. I didn't think mid-week next week would be all snow, and know it's going to be complicated (though was of course hoping for mostly or all snow!). It's disappointing to see a trend toward some kind of cutter, though, that would greatly limit anything wintry it seems. But of course that can change, it's still a week out! The signal for the other storm after that one has been showing up for a little while now too, I believe. I think a couple or so people in here seemed a bit more optimistic on that one (in the Feb. 8-10 period), since the confluence and cold air in place would perhaps be better situated leading into that event, compared to the one Feb. 4-6. Either way, keeps things interesting and us on our toes for awhile! Let's just hope something works out for us in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I am willing to pass on Mon and Wed if we get the Euro fantasy land solution lol- I'll pass on nothing. I want 6-12 from a passing snow shower. gfs is going to cut again as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This isn't going to be a very happy hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I can't wait for my first summer here. No, seriously--the warmer the better in the summer for me. Well, you've come to the right place then!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Even Happy Hr sucks..Im goin to grab a drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This isn't going to be a very happy hour. Snow to ice at least. I'll take it. Heh, .5 of ice for central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks like frozen at hour 147 anyway and still frozen at 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Leesburg is going to be called iceberg on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Snow to ice at least. I'll take it. Yeah. And for clarification I was talking about the 144 thing. Not the unicorn storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Snow to ice at least. I'll take it. Heh, .5 of ice for central MD. That is what i am talking about, if we cannot get snow i am all for a good old fashioned ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Snow to ice at least. I'll take it. Heh, .5 of ice for central MD. it'll get colder as we get closer progressive flow ftw (insurance pun not intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 How does 18z compare to 12z for next wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah. And for clarification I was talking about the 144 thing. Not the unicorn storm Honestly, this would be a historic ice storm for pa and parts of ny and sne. I kinda hope it verifies just to see it unfold. No wishing harm or anything but it's a heck of an ice storm on the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 lol- I'll pass on nothing. I want 6-12 from a passing snow shower. gfs is going to cut again as expected. NCEP site is slow as molasses...so I'll ask, when you say "cut" are you talking into Ohio, or just to our NW? Guess that would have an impact on whether we get something on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah. And for clarification I was talking about the 144 thing. Not the unicorn storm You're naming it already? I guess it's better than (J)anus from last week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm a real rookie at this, so bare with me...When we're talking about these runs right now, are we talking about the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 NCEP site is slow as molasses...so I'll ask, when you say "cut" are you talking into Ohio, or just to our NW? Guess that would have an impact on whether we get something on the front end. this answer ur question? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_153_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=153&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm a real rookie at this, so bare with me...When we're talking about these runs right now, are we talking about the GFS? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm a real rookie at this, so bare with me...When we're talking about these runs right now, are we talking about the GFS? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 this answer ur question? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_153_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=153&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Road trip to CLEVELAND!!! EDIT: but seriously, it's below freezing at the surface even through DC (eyeballing the 2-m temperature), with lots of precip up through that point. Would be some serious icing late Tuesday into Tuesday night before it rains if that's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm a real rookie at this, so bare with me...When we're talking about these runs right now, are we talking about the GFS? Yes, only 18z stuff that runs is the gfs/nam/rgem. Euro runs twice a day. 12:45 am/pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Maybe wizards beat clippers tonight and gfs and euro go back to snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 It really wouldn't take that much to luck into a better solution. It's more of a runner than a true cutter. Weaken the storm and a bit more confluence and things change pretty quick. As it stands now, we just can't keep it under us. Even so, as mitch said it wouldn't take much to go colder on the front end. I like the storm. Even verbatim on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 It really wouldn't take that much to luck into a better solution. It's more of a runner than a true cutter. Weaken the storm and a bit more confluence and things change pretty quick. As it stands now, we just can't keep it under us. Even so, as mitch said it wouldn't take much to go colder on the front end. I like the storm. Even verbatim on this run. Is that thing trying to hint at some sort of re-development off the coast (I can only see up to 153, so this may be a moot question)? Not that it will do a lot, but wonder if we get more dry-slotted after snow/ice, and before it cools off again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.