February Medium/Long Range Disco

[MillvilleWx]

I love the potential in this pattern. With so many players on board (which some of you have already mentioned), it's going to be very difficult for any model to narrow in on a solution till probably 72 hours in or less. There is a massive pipeline of systems out west that have not gotten into any good sampling yet and until then, this will be far from resolved. Overrunning events in the Mid Atlantic are always dicey unless you have a '03 repeat of 1040 Highs funneling down cold air for days. I always live by the old saying, "Sometimes you have to smell the rain to get the heavy snow in close situations." Unfortunately, for you guys in DC, that saying has come back to bite more often then not. I've seen enough snow this year. I would love to see you guys really cash in down there. 

[mappy]

Ian bday threats never work out, except in 2010

[psuhoffman]

Euro is a great run overall, it has something for everyone.  Between the 3 storms by 240 hours everyone from Richmond to Albany gets 10"+

[midatlanticweather]

Seems like most of the models are sniffing out something in the day 10 range. I still like the fact that we finally have an active southern stream. Next week is going to be sleepless for many on this board.

A mountain dew, Monster, coffee and slim jim sleepless!

[Bob Chill]

I'm most interested in what the ensembles say for the Wed storm. If they back off from their string of snowy solutions then time to set expectations for a nw track and have some fun with whatever piece of the storm we can. 

[WEATHER53]

Winter is quite far from over, post 2/15 may be a different matter. Sad to see Ian climb in with the pessimissm, chiding bunch but that is mostly who is here anyway. Any thoughths of estblishing a thread limited to level headed snow and cold enthusists??

[Scraff]

Winter is quite far from over, post 2/15 may be a different matter. Sad to see Ian climb in with the pessimissm, chiding bunch but that is mostly who is here anyway. Any thoughths of estblishing a thread limited to level headed snow and cold enthusists??

Start up that thread.  I'd be in until I'm out.

[kdskidoo]

8-12 is a normal storm in central PA or SNE. Its not a     is really used for special occasions. Maybe use this   

LOL, maybe many years ago, but not in recent years more like 2" is the norm for central PA

[psuhoffman]

Something I dont get about the weatherbell snowfall maps, we all know they are overdone and have some issue with the temp profiles, but sometimes its just so obvious I dont get how they made that mistake.  If there is an obvious level like 850 that is above 0, it doesnt matter that its below 0 at the surface, that is NOT snow...so why include it in the algorythm.  Shouldn't it simply require that all measured levels be below 0?  Is that too complicated?

[Bob Chill]

Something I dont get about the weatherbell snowfall maps, we all know they are overdone and have some issue with the temp profiles, but sometimes its just so obvious I dont get how they made that mistake.  If there is an obvious level like 850 that is above 0, it doesnt matter that its below 0 at the surface, that is NOT snow...so why include it in the algorythm.  Shouldn't it simply require that all measured levels be below 0?  Is that too complicated?

 

I can't put my finger on it exactly but it's clearly screwed up. I would need text output and go through all the layers manually to figure it out. Sometimes they show accum snow with warm ground and below zero 850's and also the exact opposite with cold ground above zero 850's. They are the worst snowmaps of all the models with temps on the edges. 

[Ian]

weekend rule

I'm in

[Ian]

d10 snowmap!

 

[Snow Threat]

cool..northwest trend should get us into the 12-18" range..

Y'all might as well have it.  Don't think it will be cold enough down here to do us any good anyhow.    Maybe y'all could get some good white stuff from all that moisture.

[usedtobe]

d10 snowmap!

 

ecmwf_snow_24_washdc_41.png

I knew I left something out of today's article....would get some hits.

[mappy]

Only 7"? I'm out

[ravensrule]

Winter is quite far from over, post 2/15 may be a different matter. Sad to see Ian climb in with the pessimissm, chiding bunch but that is mostly who is here anyway. Any thoughths of estblishing a thread limited to level headed snow and cold enthusists??

There will be no one in that thread, it is an oxymoron.

[Ian]

I knew I left something out of today's article....would get some hits.

I tweeted it. It's doing well so far.

[Ian]

There will be no one in that thread, it is an oxymoron.

I dunno what Tenman is talking about. I like snow and extreme weather. It's my prerogative not to like cold. Next July I'm going to complain about people complaining it's hot and start a hot lovers thread.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I dunno what Tenman is talking about. I like snow and extreme weather. It's my prerogative not to like cold. Next July I'm going to complain about people complaining it's hot and start a hot lovers thread.

Seriously?

[Bob Chill]

euro ensemble mean screams cutter for wed next week. With a cad sig up front at least. 

[Bob Chill]

D9-10 threat has plenty of eps support. precip max streams right from the gulf with us as a bullseye. Much better look than Wed on the means. 

[snowfan]

So....did we cancel early spring?

[WhiteoutMD]

What did I miss the GFS and GEFS ensembles say? 

[needbiggerboat]

Climo argues against a 12 inch + snow in this area anytime soon. RE 09/10 vs long term frequencies.

[Casualbrain]

Time to lock the board down in Storm Mode once TWC announces "Winter Storm Octopus"

[Ian]

Climo argues against a 12 inch + snow in this area anytime soon. RE 09/10 vs long term frequencies.

Climo always argues against that around here.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

euro ensemble mean screams cutter for wed next week. With a cad sig up front at least. 

 

Somehow, this is not much of a surprise.  It appears all guidance has gone in that direction, both deterministic and ensemble-based.  Kind of disappointing, but it's still not resolved and maybe we can get something on the front end to make it interesting.

 

 

D9-10 threat has plenty of eps support. precip max streams right from the gulf with us as a bullseye. Much better look than Wed on the means. 

 

This is certainly encouraging, and what I saw in the GEFS mean painted a similar idea (I didn't look at individual members or anything like that).  So it may be a case of having to give up one event that could have been good mid-week Feb. 4-6, in order to get "the one" a few days later...always a difficult proposition around here!  But I do like seeing a good signal for that.

 

Not to be too much of a downer, but seems like a few days or so ago up until recently, the middle of next week was looking great, and that has now kind of fallen apart (for now).  I sure hope this isn't going to happen again with this other threat!  Maybe the set-up for the D9-10 chance is better than what the one mid-week next week is, so hopefully that's a good sign.  I know it was always a tenuous, borderline situation for next week, maybe it's less so for the one after that.

[ravensrule]

I dunno what Tenman is talking about. I like snow and extreme weather. It's my prerogative not to like cold. Next July I'm going to complain about people complaining it's hot and start a hot lovers thread.

WinterWx beat me to it so i will leave that alone. There are definitely more complainers about the heat around here than the cold. One reason is because we do heat a hell of alot better around here than cold. I am going to remind you in the summer to start a hot lovers thread with a pic of me in my banana hammock.

[North Balti Zen]

Does anyone really relish days with highs near 100 around here? Really? Especially with the attendant humidity that comes with that? We are not exactly Phoenix when it comes to dry heat. Our heat tends to be oppressive you might die humidity heat.

[Ji]

the feb 5-6 event is the hearbreaker it seems....been waiting forever for a high qpf event and it comes as rain?