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February Medium/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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euro ensemble mean screams cutter for wed next week. With a cad sig up front at least. 

 

Somehow, this is not much of a surprise.  It appears all guidance has gone in that direction, both deterministic and ensemble-based.  Kind of disappointing, but it's still not resolved and maybe we can get something on the front end to make it interesting.

 

 

D9-10 threat has plenty of eps support. precip max streams right from the gulf with us as a bullseye. Much better look than Wed on the means. 

 

This is certainly encouraging, and what I saw in the GEFS mean painted a similar idea (I didn't look at individual members or anything like that).  So it may be a case of having to give up one event that could have been good mid-week Feb. 4-6, in order to get "the one" a few days later...always a difficult proposition around here!  But I do like seeing a good signal for that.

 

Not to be too much of a downer, but seems like a few days or so ago up until recently, the middle of next week was looking great, and that has now kind of fallen apart (for now).  I sure hope this isn't going to happen again with this other threat!  Maybe the set-up for the D9-10 chance is better than what the one mid-week next week is, so hopefully that's a good sign.  I know it was always a tenuous, borderline situation for next week, maybe it's less so for the one after that.

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I dunno what Tenman is talking about. I like snow and extreme weather. It's my prerogative not to like cold. Next July I'm going to complain about people complaining it's hot and start a hot lovers thread.

WinterWx beat me to it so i will leave that alone. There are definitely more complainers about the heat around here than the cold. One reason is because we do heat a hell of alot better around here than cold. I am going to remind you in the summer to start a hot lovers thread with a pic of me in my banana hammock.

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WinterWx beat me to it so i will leave that alone. There are definitely more complainers about the heat around here than the cold. One reason is because we do heat a hell of alot better around here than cold. I am going to remind you in the summer to start a hot lovers thread with a pic of me in my banana hammock.

 

Well, ain't that the truth!!!  Yeah, we get cold around here but other than something unusual like this month, it's typically short-lived.  But summers...those just drag on, and on, and on, and ...!  Getting 90s with awful humidity last a whole lot longer here, just the nature of the region I guess.  It's far easier to have a warmer than normal winter with little snow than it is to have a cooler summer.  Last summer was relatively pleasant after the 3 scorchers prior to that.

 

EDIT:  I will say that fall is probably my favorite season, or a close call with winter.  Yeah, I love winter more and follow possible snow events as they come, but it's so fickle and can be very frustrating.  Fall, on the other hand...I'm not thinking of snow at that point, and it's such a nice relief after the heat of summer, getting those nights in the 50s or 40s, and mild to crisp days (and the changing foliage, too).

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Not to be too much of a downer, but seems like a few days or so ago up until recently, the middle of next week was looking great, and that has now kind of fallen apart (for now).  

 

I don't think many of us thought it looked great (as in a high prob setup for all snow). Just that it looked like the next op. And it still very much is. I've been leaning towards a mixed event. But hoping for all snow of course. The problem came with the sweet solutions of a timed event in a hostile pattern. Draws us in like ants on spilled soda. 

 

I'm not even worried about "the big one" next weekend. We'll see how the wave goes monday and then figure out how to squeeze some snow, sleet, and ice out of the next one. I'm sure you think like me. Wintry precip is wintry precip. We aren't a snow capital except once every 6-7 years. 

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WinterWx beat me to it so i will leave that alone. There are definitely more complainers about the heat around here than the cold. One reason is because we do heat a hell of alot better around here than cold. I am going to remind you in the summer to start a hot lovers thread with a pic of me in my banana hammock.

Pervs
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I don't think many of us thought it looked great (as in a high prob setup for all snow). Just that it looked like the next op. And it still very much is. I've been leaning towards a mixed event. But hoping for all snow of course. The problem came with the sweet solutions of a timed event in a hostile pattern. Draws us in like ants on spilled soda. 

 

I'm not even worried about "the big one" next weekend. We'll see how the wave goes monday and then figure out how to squeeze some snow, sleet, and ice out of the next one. I'm sure you think like me. Wintry precip is wintry precip. We aren't a snow capital except once every 6-7 years. 

 

Yeah, I think we're on the same page overall in terms of assessing the look of the set-up in the upcoming weeks.  I didn't think mid-week next week would be all snow, and know it's going to be complicated (though was of course hoping for mostly or all snow!).  It's disappointing to see a trend toward some kind of cutter, though, that would greatly limit anything wintry it seems.  But of course that can change, it's still a week out!

 

The signal for the other storm after that one has been showing up for a little while now too, I believe.  I think a couple or so people in here seemed a bit more optimistic on that one (in the Feb. 8-10 period), since the confluence and cold air in place would perhaps be better situated leading into that event, compared to the one Feb. 4-6.

 

Either way, keeps things interesting and us on our toes for awhile!  Let's just hope something works out for us in the end.

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Yeah. And for clarification I was talking about the 144 thing. Not the unicorn storm

 

Honestly, this would be a historic ice storm for pa and parts of ny and sne. I kinda hope it verifies just to see it unfold. No wishing harm or anything but it's a heck of an ice storm on the panels. 

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